Analysis of Franklyn Kilome/Asdrubal Cabrera deal

When the Phillies couldn’t land Manny Machado, the market for position players looked pretty bare. The Phillies were in the market for infield help, particularly players who could play on the left side of the infield and make their bench deeper. Unfortunately the only infielders that fit the Phillies positional need were either players who played great defense/subpar offense, or above-average offense/subpar defense. Considering the youth of the roster, a bat who could come off the bench and provide some pop and start two or three times a week made the most sense. And so just a few hours ago, the Phillies traded with their bitter rivals, the New York Mets, to acquire Asdrubal Cabrera. The price for Cabrera would be big projectable righty Franklyn Kilome, who has been in AA Reading this season.

Klentak said that Asdrubal would not relegate any of their young players to a full time bench role and he would play multiple positions. Asdrubal has lost a big step defensively and hasn’t played any position other than second base this season. This is the first in his career that he hasn’t been primarily a shortstop (1,029 starts). In fact a JP/Kingery shortstop combination is likely a better defense for this team. Still though when Asdrubal plays, he’s mainly in for the bat. Sporting 18 home runs a .277/.329/.488 line and a 124 OPS+, he immediately becomes one of the better bats in the lineup, illustrated even more courtesy of Ben Harris.

The Phillies will be getting JP Crawford for back probably in the next week or so and just called up Roman Quinn to be their fourth outfielder. By adding them and Cabrera, the Phillies depth gets a little better.  It gives Gabe more interesting lineups to play with for matchups. He will likely be starting at 2B, 3B and SS my guess probably at least three times a week, if not everyday. He could likely come out in the later innings in double switches to put a more athletic defender at the position he is playing that night.

So now the real talk of this conversation, which is Kilome. While I have not personally seen him this season, I got a couple of glances at him last year when he got called up to Reading in August. Kilome is a big (6’6″), and a little slight but nearly filled out. He’s got a fastball with some cut in the 93-96 mph range and plus spin on a 12-6 curveball. Unfortunately he hasn’t been able to develop a consistent third pitch he can rely upon, which has essentially made him a two pitch pitcher. Command has been an issue for him throughout his career and he’s flatlined on improvement. After a break out season for Lakewood in 2016, he has been pitching more to contact and allowing more baserunners. Since arriving at AA last August, he has struck out 18.2% and walked 11.2% of the batters he has faced in 137.2 innings.

You recall that earlier in the week that I suggested that the Phillies make as minimal moves as possible and save their best assets down the line. My main take away was that they should play the non-waiver and waiver trade deadlines like the 2015 Chicago Cubs, where they didn’t give up their best assets. Kilome, while a fringe top 10 prospect at the start of the season, he has been slowly falling into the 12-15 range in the system. While there maybe a chance for to become a back-end starter, he’s becoming more of a relief pitcher by the day. But even with a 60 grade fastball and curveball combination, there’s some question about the caliber of reliever he might be. If the bullpen is in his future, he doesn’t seem to a high leverage reliever because of the amount of contact and walks he allows.  Add in the fact, that there are more tantalizing pitching prospects rising in the system and it’s easy to see why they wanted to attempt on Kilome’s one-for-one value now.

For comparison sake, on the same day the Phillies made their deal for Cabrera, the Diamondbacks acquired Eduardo Escobar from the Twins, who was another potential option for the Phillies. In that deal, the Twins received back the Diamondbacks #11 and #19 prospects (and one more minor leaguer), according to MLB pipeline. They were both rentals, were having good offensive years and were subpar defenders. The Phillies basically paid about the same price, maybe even less depending on how others value the Twins’ haul, with just one prospect who appears to have plateaued out.

Another reason Kilome made sense to trade is the potential 40-man roster crunch coming down the line. Kilome was protected back in the offseason to prevent him from being picked in the Rule 5. This year the Phillies have a number of guys that will need to be added in order to avoid them from being selected in the Rule 5 this winter. Adonis Medina and Arquimedes Gamboa are top ten prospects and then there are prospects who are performing this year like Tyler Gilbert, Deivi Grullon and Edgar Garcia. There are players on the 40 man that will be easy to remove (Zac Curtis, Plouffe, Taveras, Lively) and possibly more, but the Phillies will likely add big names this winter that will take up spots. An easy way to solve this issue is what the they did today by making a trade for a rental player that they likely won’t retain, while trading a controllable asset on their 40 man that was not producing well enough to occupy a spot next year.

There is always a chance that a guy like Kilome figures it out down the line (whether as a starter or a reliever). But if this is the only big hit their system takes for a productive rental, then this was well worth the gamble to take right now.