It certainly is a thrilling atmosphere right now with the Phillies being the talk of the town (that is until the reigning Super Bowl champions kick off their title defense). To be 11 games over .500, and being tied a top the division on the morning of July 24th was probably not what anybody was expecting for the youngest team in baseball. With the all the good vibes, there was a moment last week when it reached it peak, when the team was suddenly at the forefront of the Manny Machado sweepstakes. Thoughts of potentially reaching the World Series began to dance in a some people’s minds. Then on the morning of the All-Star Game and throughout the next 30 or so hours, that slowly decayed into disappointment as the Dodgers swooped in with a five prospect package of their own.
The Phillies certainly had their chance to land a big prize they were going to chase this offseason and in the end the another team came up with a better offer. That being said, there have been some fans and media members out there who have continued to torch the Phillies for not landing the big star over the haggling of prospects. And if you’ve been reading or listening, those same people continue to bring up one name when talking about their anger over not getting Machado: Sixto Sanchez. If you asked most experts where they would rank Sixto with all the prospects amongst the contenders for Machado’s services (Yankees, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Dodgers), they would have Sixto as the best of the bunch. Sixto is an elite pitching prospect, who some have compared to Pedro Martinez (I don’t do Hall of Fame comparisons), and is considered to be at worst a top 25 prospect (some have him top 15) in all of baseball right now.
The Sixto debate felt greatly divided amongst the fandom and media, and it happens a lot when a team loses out trading for a top player. There are essentially two lines of thinking: “a prospect is a prospect” and “don’t throw all your eggs in one basket”. The “prospect is a prospect” moniker is very tiring because it is a lazy way of saying “I don’t care if this kid becomes a star, I want to win now”. There is a point and time where this is perfectly acceptable and that nobody should be untouchable. But is that where this team is now? And even if they were, what is their system like? Let’s dive into that:
Where Is The Rebuild Now?
The team has arrived a year early with an unexpected potential run to claim the NL East with a stunning start. Yet this is still a year about finding their identity going forward. Their are certainly pieces like Hoskins, Nola and Dominguez who look like potential studs. But there is a lot they still need to learn about the rest of their young players (Crawford, Kingery, Williams, Alfaro, Eflin, etc.). Still though, with the Nationals not looking like they will get going on a dominant run and the Braves essentially in the same position as the Phillies this year (rebuild/surprise playoff contention), the Phillies will make a move. In order to understand what they should potentially do, it’s a good idea to look back into the past non-waiver trade deadline deals with teams who were in a similar situation that the Phillies are in now with an above-average prospect haul.
- The 2015 Houston Astros would end up making two significant deals that would help push them to win the Wild Card Game and eventually to Game 5 of the ALDS where they lost to the eventual World Series champion Royals. The first would be dealing for LHP Scott Kazmir from Oakland to bolster their rotation. In a rental deal, they sent RHP Daniel Mengden and C Jacob Nottingham, who were considered in a deep system anywhere between the 12th and 25th best prospects in their system. Kazmir ended up posting posting a 4.17 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 13 starts (73.1 IP) during the stretch run and made one start in the ALDS (5.1 IP, 3 ER). Mengden is currently a back-end starter for Oakland (4.90 ERA in 205.1 IP) and Nottingham has been in the minors for the most part. They ended up giving up more for a year and a half of control for Brewers OF Carlos Gomez and a couple years for RHP Mike Fiers. Fiers ended up having more of an impact down the stretch (3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 10 G (9 starts, no-hitter) then Gomez did (.242, .670 OPS, 4 HR in 163 PA). Gomez ended up getting released in the middle of next year. The prize Houston ended up sending to Milwaukee was OFs Domingo Santana and Brett Phillips, LHP Josh Hader and RHP Adrian Houser. Hader went from a starter in the minors to an All-Star reliever this year. Santana was a fringe top 100 prospect, who has had a decent career thus far (109 OPS+, 52 HR). Phillips was a top 30-70 prospect who unfortunately blocked at the moment by more seasoned outfielders. Houser has had injury and inconsistency issues but has had a couple cups of coffee in his career. The first three I mentioned were all top 10-15 Astros prospects.
- The 2015 Chicago Cubs hired Joe Maddon to manage and singed Jon Lester to head their rotation, but throughout the season they would call-up the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant and Addison Russell to begin the process of ending the century-long drought. But instead of making a splashy move they ended up making smaller moves like OF Austin Jackson and RHPs Tommy Hunter and Dan Haren. Haren ended up having the best impact of the bund as a fifth starter (4.01 ERA, 44/13 K/BB in 11 starts (58.1 IP)). It wasn’t until the next year that the Cubs knew what they had and ended up trading for one of the best relief pitchers in baseball in Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees. In that deal, the Cubs traded their top prospect, SS Glyber Torres and another top five guy in OF Billy McKinney (plus RHP Adam Warren and another minor leaguer). While Torres was a top 40 prospect and rising at the time of the deal and Mckinney was in the 70-100 range depending on who you talk to. And while Torres looks like a stud now in the Bronx, Chapman was a big key to the Cubs title that year, even if he was a rental.
- Last year, the Milwaukee Brewers were in first place heading into the All-Star break. They had a chance to be a threat to get into the playoffs. But instead, GM David Stearns avoided really making any splashy moves at the deadline. There was a thought that they would go after White Sox LHP Jose Quintana to bolster their rotation. But then the Cubs sacrificed a top 25 prospect in Eloy Jimenez and that was that. While they would acquire solid bullpen help in Jeremy Jeffress and Anthony Swarzak before July 31 and Neil Walker during the waiver trade period, they didn’t end up grabbing a more consistent bat that they needed to help keep the Cubs at bay. While there were enough, smaller bat options, there wasn’t much impact at the deadline.
What Kind of Depth Do They Have?
The Phillies system has entered the last two seasons as a top 10 farm system in baseball. With all of the recent graduations over the last year and a half, the system certainly has taken a hit, particularly in position players. But what they lack near the top, they make up for with a lot of high risk, high reward prospects in the lower levels, particularly in pitching.
Sixto is by far and away the best of the bunch. After Sixto there is a gap between him and the next two, with the #3 overall pick 3B Alec Bohm and RHP Adonis Medina. These three are considered top 100 prospects in the game, with Sixto in the top 20, Bohm in the top 60 and Medina in the 75-100 range despite his shaky performance in Clearwater thus far. On the fringe of that (somewhere in the next 100) are LHP Jojo Romero (who Keith Law ranked in his top 50), RHP Enyel De Los Santos, and OFs Jhailyn Ortiz and Adam Haseley.
When you get past those seven, they have a lot of quality arms ranging from the safe back-end starters (Kyle Young, Ranger Suarez, Cole Irvin), mid-rotation ceilings guys (Francisco Morales, Spencer Howard) and a lot of surprising performers (Damon Jones, David Parkinson, Will Stewart). Their catching depth, as highlighted by Matt on Friday, has caught everybody’s eye this year. In the lower levels, Rodolfo Duran, Rafael Marchan and Abrahan Gutierrez have the most potential to be starters. In the upper levels, they have solid defensive backups emerging in Deivi Grullon, Austin Bossart and Edgar Cabral. They also have plus, athletic defenders up the middle in Arquimedes Gamboa, Brayan Gonzalez, Jonathan Guzman and Luis Garcia leading the charge. What they sorely lack is high upside in power with Ortiz, Ben Pelletier and Carlos De La Cruz representing the most into. Zach Green, Mitch Walding, Dylan Cozens, Austin Listi, and Darick Hall all are essentially power guys, but who have limited potential.
This is the type of system where you can’t just read numbers. They can truly deceive when evaluating if you don’t watch these guys on a daily or weekly basis. A lot of their top tier talent is in the lower minors and are 20 years and younger. So making a stone cold judgement based on a .232 batting average or six home runs or a 4.97 ERA does one no good. An organization evaluates talent not solely on numbers, but whether the tools and potential is there. For example, Ortiz can be a bit aggressive and has a tough time laying off breaking balls posting a low batting average. But he’s 19 years old playing against competition that is two years older than him and he has tremendous power to all fields. In the case of Medina, while he’s getting hit hard in Clearwater, he has good qualities of being a #2/3-type starter. He’s a quick worker, with quality command of his mid 90s fastball, a plus change-up and, when he has a feel for it, the potential for a wipeout slider. Advanced minor league data is scarce to the public, so it’s never going to be like trying to analyze a major leaguer. That’s why it’s always a good idea to follow people like me who watch these guys for a living to give you an idea on a day-to-day basis how a prospect is actually doing.
The Handling of the Machado Talks and How to Proceed Forward
So the big question to everybody is if there farm system (while not as robust as it once was) is still considered deep, why couldn’t they pull of the Machado trade? Well let’s start with what the Orioles were looking for. I think their hope was to land something like the Yankees got in the Chapman and Andrew Miller deals in 2016 (a top 40, top 100 prospect plus more).
Now consider what the Dodgers had to offer. They have a much deeper pool of high quality talent than the Phillies. Prior to the trade, the Dodgers had at least five prospects ranked in a number of top 100 list. Their system though is more equipped with high quality bats than arms at the moment. OF Yusniel Diaz, the top prize in the trade, has risen to the point where he’s a near lock top 50 guy and possibly better than that. After Diaz, the other four players in the trade package weren’t as elite but having strong seasons. RHP Dean Kremer (3.33 ERA, 131/32 K/BB in 92 IP) and 3B Rylan Bannon (.296, 20 HR, .961 OPS) were in the 15 -30 range in the Dodgers prospect pool. RHP Zach Pop has had a good showing out of the bullpen and INF Breyvic Valera is essentially a depth piece. On the surface, it seemed the Dodgers gave up little in the deal considering past deals for star rentals. But a non-playoff bound team like the Orioles with a rental chip such as Machado has to weigh whether taking the best offer or extend a qualifying offer and gain a first round pick when he signs elsewhere. So Machado wasn’t going to draw a pair of top 50 or top 100 prospects unless he had another year of control left. And looking at the Orioles system, they are currently pretty rich in pitching. Gaining a top tier position player that was close to the big leagues appeared to be a priority and the Dodgers had plenty of those. And let’s not forget, the Dodgers have more of a desire to win now than the Phillies do, being a game away from winning it all last year.
Now could the Phillies have topped the Dodgers offer with any of their top prospects? Sixto would be the only prospect in the system who could satisfy the top 40 claim since Bohm can’t necessarily be traded until the offseason. Sixto is way out in front of Diaz in a number of the midseason rankings, sitting in the top 25. Even beyond that, Sixto is likely ranked ahead of the headliners in the Miller/Chapman deals (Torres and Clint Frazier) by the time of the deals. A prospect of Sixto’s caliber at this stage would be considered more a of a trade chip if control was guaranteed beyond just two months. Those who say that he is two to three years away haven’t been paying attention to the Phillies aggression for pushing the 19 year old. If it weren’t for the inflammation that has kept him out for nearly two months, he would’ve been likely in Reading right now. And even with this delay, there’s a good chance he could be inserted into the rotation next July or August.
While the Phillies have the money to pay Machado for what he’ll be looking for this winter, it’s still technically a risk and also doesn’t make much sense from an acquisition cost to have acquired him, unless it was at a reasonable cost. If they ended up doing the Miller/Chapman deals, surrendering their number one and another top five, it’s not that they would have lost a potential star, but more so trade chips for down the line. For where this team is now, they are better off keeping their best assets. The Phillies are better off going the way of the 2015 Cubs, making minor moves to help with a postseason run with out giving away too much, if any, of their top 12 prospects. Between now and Opening Day next year, the only trades involving the top of their system should only be for controllable players. And then when their roster is more established next season, then trading away top assets for rentals makes more sense.
So prepare for a market of low cost players like Kirby Yates, Jake Diekman, Asdrubal Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Eduardo Escobar and many more. Because that how it should be for the 2018 Phillies.
Photo of Sixto Sanchez courtesy of Baseball Betsy