On Monday, the wait will finally be over. At 7 pm on June 4th, the first two rounds of the MLB Draft will commence, and you can watch it on MLB Network or stream it on MLB.com. And it won’t take very long to find out who the Phillies select as they have the #3 pick. There are a number of scenarios where the Phillies could potentially go, but it appears that could be mute at this point an time. With under a week to go, many in the industry have already have locked the Phillies in to one particular prospect. And while it seems like they will go in that direction, there is potentially one scenario that could put a wrench in to that: if somehow the consensus #1 prospect, Auburn’s Casey Mize, inconceivably falls.
Mize’s rise to #1 shouldn’t be much of a surprise to anyone, if you’ve followed him along last year. In 2017, Mize posted an absurd 12.1 K/BB ratio in 83.2 IP. The command of his arsenal and his dominant plus splitter made him a top 10 prospect heading into the spring. The thing that has held him back has been some injury scares since high school, particularly last year with a forearm strain that kept him from pitching in the summer. By making a couple adjustments, particularly with his slider grip, he has relieved some of that potential stress in his arm and made it through a healthy 2018 and rose to the top of every scouting board. And while he shares the spotlight of the SEC with another dominant right-hander (Florida’s Brady Singer), Mize has blown away the competition and put up eye-gaudy numbers.
Mize has certainly had some tremendous games this season. In early March, he would throw a no-hitter vs Northeastern and about a few weeks ago struck out 15 vs Vanderbilt. But he has also had his downs like scuffling in an early season win vs Bryant and losing a heck of duel between him and Singer in April where he surrendered an early two-run home run to another potential top 10 prospect (Jonathan India). Recently, his play has been subpar, as he lost his last three games and allowed 14 ER in 18.2 IP. However, it appears as if he has done enough throughout the course of the season prior to justify the Tiger taking him in the top spot.
So how would the Phillies play into a guy who will likely not make it past the top two, let alone the top spot in the draft? In the last week, there’s been a little buzz about the possibility of the Tigers taking Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart with the number one pick. While the Tigers system has gotten better, it still lacks top level position player prospects and Bart would immediately be at the top of the category in a system with a plethora of pitching prospects. So then Mize has to go to the Giants, correct? Well it’s clear the Giants have been primarily focused on Bart to take over Posey’s duties behind the plate one day. So if Bart is gone, it’s likely they would pick Mize. However, the Giants have nearly $11.75 million and a really bare farm system. If they want to get a little creative and go for Matthew Liberatore, who they have had their eye on, to save some money then that would create a scenario where Mize is potentially can become a Phillie. The Giants could also like Alec Bohm more than Mize, but either way it’s a scenario I would give maybe at best a 5% chance of happening. I cannot for all intensive purposes see Mize falling out of the top 2. But for the fun of it let’s dive into the best pitching prospect in the draft.
Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
6’3″, 220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Previously Drafted: Never Drafted
Rankings (as of 5/28): Baseball America #1, MLB #1, ESPN #1, Perfect Game #1, 2080 Baseball #1
What the Numbers Say
2016 (Freshman): 16 G (7 GS), 69 IP, 2-5, SV, 3.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59 K, 18 BB, 69 H, 9 HR allowed, .249 opp AVG, 7 WP, 4 HBP, 7.7 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 3.28 K/BB
2017 (Sophomore): 13 G (12 GS), 83.2 IP, 8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2 CG, 109 K, 9 BB, 66 H, 4 HR allowed, .210 opp AVG, WP, 2 HBP, 11.73 K/9, 0.97 BB/9, 12.11 K/BB
2018 (Junior) (as of 5/28): 15 G (all starts), 102.2 IP, 9-5, 3.07 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 3 CG, SHO, 140 K, 10 BB, 73 H, 9 HR allowed, .197 opp AVG, 4 WP, 4 HBP, 12.27 K/9, 0.88 BB/9, 14 K/BB
Strengths
Good size at 6’3″. Controls fastball well (93-96 mph), spots it perfectly in every quadrant, some spin and cutting action. Split-finger change-up (86-89) has some arm-side run and sharp downward action, plus plus offering. Cutter (88-91) has really sharp pull, lot of lateral movement. Slider (81-85) is a bit more loopy with same type of action.
Weaknesses
He can overthrow his fastball at times, leaving to more pitches elevated in the zone resulting in more hits; gets flat every now and then. Suffered forearm strain that kept him out for a couple times last year, particularly in the summer; may be caused by overuse of split-change. In the stretch, arm doesn’t look as fluid, tends to elevate his pitches more in this position.
Overall Assessment
Adding a cutter and changing his slider grip this spring helped Mize relieve some of the tension in his arm and he has mixed his arsenal pretty well. Mize has the chance to have at least three plus pitches with his fastball, split-change and either his cutter or slider emerging as the third. And even if he seldomly uses a fourth pitch that will still be a 50-55 grade pitch. There maybe some mechanical tweaks that might be made while he’s in the stretch, but other than that his mechanics are repeatable and fluid in the wind-up. Big concern coming into the year was health, but he went through the spring unscathed. Mize’s ceiling is that of a frontline starter, with his floor being a mid-rotation starter.