Season Recap Mailbag

by

The season is over and at 80-82 the Phillies showed big improvement after flashing the ability to make an even bigger improvement. This offseason will be a big on and many of you are worried about it.

Sure. Obviously the Phillies are going to make changes in free agency, but when firing at all cylinders this summer they could compete with anyone. Part of the problem with the Phillies this year is that they ran out of depth, and when their starters wore down and their hitter started falling, they didn’t have anyway to offset that. They do need improvement from Kingery and Crawford as well as some bounceback from Odubel Herrera, but they have some elite pitching on the way and a ton of money.

I would go Eflin just because I still don’t see a good secondary pitch to lean on. Until he wore down, Vince Velasquez was very good. I think the Phillies belive in Pivetta, but he is the one guy that profile the best in the bullpen.

Absolutely. Crawford is a total unknown at this point, even if his ceiling is still the same. Hernandez’s year is probably injury ruined as he hasn’t been the same since the foot injury. The biggest hit to his value is that he is a year older and more expensive (and with one less year of control). Well that and the 2B market is still really bad.

There is not a dominant in house lefty. I do think we see more of Austin Davis, but he is more a middle reliever. The same could be said of the ceiling of Tyler Gilbert and Jeff Singer. If they need a dominant internal lefty candidate I could see JoJo Romero forced to the bullpen if there is not a rotation spot. Andrew Miller and Zach Britton are the big free agent names, but they both come with a lot of risk.I could see them pursuing one of them, but the left handed relief market is bad.

I think I am pretty sure that Kingery is not a SS, but I don’t think the Phillies learned that. But in reality the Phillies just have more uncertainty about their two top hitting prospects entering the year. I do think all the tools are there for both, and with a move back to second base, Scott Kingery can be a productive major leaguer. I am worried about Crawford’s shoulder, but he flashed the ability to draw a walk and at times the ability to impact the ball. Maybe the Phillies over valued their young players some, but there is a fine line between pushing in and making your team old faster. It is safe to say that Christian Yelich would have been a huge boost, but we also don’t know what the ask was from the Marlins.

https://twitter.com/TripToTheMound/status/1045698095059783685

The system is kind of middle of the road. Sixto Sanchez is a truly elite prospect, Alec Bohm and Adonis Medina are very good prospects. I like some of the secondary prospects like Spencer Howard, Luis Garcia, and JoJo Romero quite a bit, but the system is down from a few years ago. All that said, the system is still very deep, and they have the talent that bringing the hitting develop to the level of the pitching development could be a big boost. I don’t know if the changes will make a difference, but it can’t get much worse.

I think the offseason generally works better if they trade Cesar Hernadez, but I don’t think his value is particularly good. I do think Cesar has had his foot bothering him for months, hurting his offense and defense. He is a solid baseball player, I just don’t think he fits as well into the Phillies timeline. I would play Kingery at second next year. If you sign Machado you can trade Franco and play Crawford at SS or 3B. There are a lot of options there.

https://twitter.com/andrewrinnier/status/1045696063552675840

J.A. Happ continues to be solid. I don’t know if I really love signing him unless other things fall through. On the fallback option list, Gio Gonzalez to compete for the #5 SP spot is not the worst thing that could happen, same thing with Hyun-Jin Ryu who is better than Gio, but isn’t reliably healthy. Of course there is some guy named Clayton Kershaw who is also a free agent and would fit all teams.

There is also 27 year old Japanese LHP Yusei Kikuchi who throws hard and reportedly profiles as a mid rotation starter. He will likely be posted this winter and the Phillies have shown interest.

https://twitter.com/JesusZoidberg/status/1045695155674722304

I don’t see Santana being an everyday third baseman, but I could see him playing there more next year. Essentially the Phillies would need to sign outfielders and trade infielders. If say the Phillies sign Harper and keep Williams, Herrera, and Quinn while moving Hernandez or Franco, I could see games where they bump Santana to 3B and Hoskins to 1B and go with a better defensive outfield. It really is clear that as much as he tries, Rhys Hoskins is not an outfielder and they really should limit his time there. It is clearly within the Phillies plans to be flexible defensively, and this year I think that came without a ton of reps, but if you can make Santana a below average defensive 3B before throwing him there midseason, it does give you some flexibility.

A quick aside. The Philies already gave up their 2nd and 3rd round picks from signing Santana and Arrieta. They will have the 14th pick this draft, and will not give it up if they sign a QO player. They will lose their second round pick if they sign a top free agent, with the exception of Manny Machado who cannot receive a Qualifying Offer because he was trade midseason.

It is really hard to judge a draft this far out. For now it looks like it is hitter heavy at the top, by the time the Phillies pick, that mix could be totally different. As for going overslot, the Phillies did just that this past year, going slightly under slot on Alec Bohm and then taking Logan Simmons and Dominic Pipkin when they fell in the draft.

A.J. Pollock, Patrick Corbin, Josh Donaldson, Clayton Kershaw (if he doesn’t re-sign), and Elvis Andrus are all potentially impactful players. It does drop off a bit after that but there is a depth to fill out holes after signing a top player or two.

Photo By Baseball Betsy