The winter meetings are almost over, which means our anxiety over rumors will go back to just normal jittery and not Twitter whiplash. It also means that tomorrow morning will be the Rule 5 draft. The Phillies have long been active in the draft, with some high profile successes. With a major league team loaded up last year, they traded the #3 pick for $500,000 in international money, which looks like it went to Australian catcher, Mitchell Edwards (who is killing it in the ABL), and others. This year they pick 13th, and with the normal level of weak talent pool the Rule 5 draft offers and roster construction, it may not be an ideal place for the Phillies to add talent.
First things first, the Phillies have some players eligible for the draft. None are at the top of any lists that have come out, but let’s run through them anyway.
- 2B Daniel Brito – Brito is one of the better prospects available in the draft. However, he is a second baseman (though he could probably stand at short), and he is going zero to a major league team offensively in 2019. He probably needs at least two more years in the minors, so a team would have to be willing to take on a 3 year 40 man roster commitment to take him, that is an expensive price.
- RHP Luke Leftwich – Leftwich is kind of the replacement level right handed reliever in the modern game. He can throw up to 96, he has a secondary pitch that will flash plus, and he has decent control. It isn’t to say he isn’t a prospect or doesn’t have a MLB future, but each team has someone like him.
- RHP Thomas Eshelman – Scanning the Baseball America list, there are plenty of back end starters that don’t have Eshelman’s poor 2018 season available, and most have better stuff for a bullpen role.
- LHP Tyler Gilbert – Left handed pitchers are always coveted in the Rule 5 draft, unfortunately Gilbert is not a lefty specialist and so kind of falls into the same group as Leftwich.
- OF Jose Pujols – After being on the brink of being released, Jose Pujols put together a monster season. However, he still strikes out too much, struggles against offspeed pitches, and is a poor defender in a corner outfield spot. A team would need to carry him as dead weight all year, and if a team is willing to that with Pujols, there are some low minors guys that might be more intriguing.
- C Deivi Grullon – Rule 5 catchers rarely work out as teams can’t really hide them. Grullon is functionally a near MLB ready backup. His bat isn’t fully ready, but his glove mostly is. It is unlikely a team takes him, but major league catching is poor, so it just takes one team to love him.
The most likely outcome is that no Phillies are taken, with Leftwich and Grullon probably the most likely.
As for the Phillies taking a player, it is fairly unlikely. For a team in the Phillies contention cycle, you are looking for a useful reliever or bench bat. The Phillies right now have Jose Alvarez, Juan Nicasio, Tommy Hunter, Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Pat Neshek, and Adam Morgan locked in. That is 7 relievers and doesn’t include those with options like Austin Davis, Victor Arano, Edubray Ramos, and James Pazos. The Phillies are also looking for a higher end left handed reliever or a closer. So in other words, the Phillies already have too many relievers.
As for the bench, the Phillies have Scott Kingery, Aaron Altherr, Roman Quinn, and Andrew Knapp taking up spots. Altherr and Quinn are out of options and they don’t seem keen on demoting Kingery. Andrew Knapp is not good, but he is preferable to the version of Deivi Grullon the Phillies could pluck from another system. There just isn’t a path for a pick to make the team, making the 40 man spot more valuable as a waiver claim spot or place to avoid DFA-ing one of their own players.
The most likely outcome for tomorrow morning is the Phillies lose no one and take no one, with a best case they take someone and trade them for money or a non-R5 player.