My Philosophy:

I value elite tools; there is a level of ability that just cannot be taught to a player.  That being said once you hit hi-A you need the other skills to let those tools work in games.  The corollary to this is that an elite player is worth way more than a major league ready replacement player.  A player whose upside is being a #5 starter, middle reliever, or bench bat has little value to a team beyond their pre-free agency years. Their value is much less than a guy with a chance to be an average regular even if there is some risk.  This means there are guys who put up great numbers in the minors who just aren’t going to make it.  Baseball is hard and they just don’t have the raw abilities.

 Projections and Risk:

I decided against lengthy scouting reports and analysis, much of which has already occurred, instead opting to give you a quick snapshot of my thoughts with my projection, risk and major league ETA.  The projection is based on reasonable development, this is not a player’s ceiling, but rather it is the profile they will reach if their skills advance at a predictable rate.  This leads to projections that seem low towards the back of this list on “high upside” prospects, because we just don’t know enough to project with any certainty a profile close to their ceiling.

When it comes to position players a first division player is roughly Top 10 at their positive, a solid regular is in the 10-20 range, and a second division starter is in the back 15 or so.  These are all valuable major league pieces, especially at the league minimum.

 The List:

1. Jesse  Biddle – LHP – Age 21

Clearwater: 142.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 54 BB, 151 K

Projection:  #2/#3 Starter

Risk: Medium, despite never pitching in AA Biddle’s skill set indicates that he is at worst a #4 starter

Major League ETA: 2014

2. Adam Morgan – LHP – Age 23

Clearwater: 123.0 IP, 3.29 ERA, 28 BB, 140 K

Reading: 35.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 11 BB, 29 K

Projection: #3 Starter

Risk: Medium, much of Morgan’s projection is built on one year of excellent results, as well as a jump up in stuff

Major League ETA: 2014

Summary: Biddle and Morgan have become linked in my mind and analysis so rather than write them up separately I decided to combine them.  When it comes to their pitches their fastballs are similar though Morgan’s is more consistent and Biddle’s will flash better.  Morgan has the better changeup though Biddle’s will flash plus.  Biddle has the dominating plus breaking ball, Morgan’s slider also very good.  Morgan has the better command right now, but Biddle has the nice easy delivery that will lend itself to good command in the future.  Biddle does have the better frame giving him the chance to be a real 200IP+ workhorse.  There is still some projectability with the younger Biddle and that gives him the edge here.

Biddle and Morgan are a very clear tier in my mind. Iit is not a huge gap from them to #3 on this list, Roman Quinn.  In this list Quinn is on his own, and there is a decent gap behind him to #4.

3. Roman Quinn – SS – Age 19

Williamsport: .281/.370/.408, 28BB, 61K, 1 HR, 30SB

Projection: First division regular

Risk: High, Quinn has yet to play full season ball but he does have good instincts at the plate.  If he can’t play shortstop is value is not extremely reduced by moving to center field

Major League ETA: 2016

Summary: Quinn’s biggest ability is his 80 grade speed.  He is one of the fastest players in baseball right now.  Quinn was #2 on this list for a while and his fall to #3 is no fault of his own.  If Quinn can show some home run power in his compact swing or improved instincts at short he could become an elite prospect in baseball.  For now he remains the highest upside position player in the system.  Even if he cannot stick at short his speed will give him elite range in center field.  Quinn will face a tough challenge in his full season debut but he should only get better with more reps in the field and switch hitting.

I had a hard time ranking #4-#7 and you can really argue them in any order you want to.  Franco is different from the other three in that he is farther away but his ceiling may be higher than the rest, earning him his spot on this list.  #9 Jonathan Pettibone was a clear step behind them.

4. Tommy Joseph – C – Age 21

Richmond: 304AB, .260/.313/.391, 25BB, 64K, 8HR

Reading: 100AB, .250/.327/.420, 9BB, 32K, 3HR

Projection: Solid to above average regular

Risk: Medium, Joseph has a crazy work ethic and makeup that have allowed him to really improve himself, however there are some definite holes in his game that are concerning.

Major League ETA: Late-2013

Summary: A year ago there were questions about whether Joseph could stick at catcher, but the answer is now a definitive yes.  Joseph will likely never be an elite receiver but he has gotten much better, and he can lock down the running game with a great arm.  At the plate Joseph will likely always have a low average but he has increased his walk rate to a point where he can get on base enough to provide value.  Joseph has plenty of raw power but it only plays as plus due to the poor contact ability.  There is a chance that Joseph’s makeup will allow him to make another real leap.

5. Ethan Martin – RHP – Age 23

Chattanooga: 118.0IP, 3.58 ERA, 61BB, 112K

Reading: 39.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 18BB, 35K

Projection: #3 Starter/Late-inning Reliever or Closer

Risk: High, Martin has really only shown the ability to consistently throw strikes for half a season, and even then had an outburst of wildness in Reading, could probably transition to the bullpen easily

Major League ETA: 2013

Summary:  Martin has a ton of upside if he can prove his new control is real, though the lack of a good changeup is concerning.  This ranking reflects the raw stuff that Martin has; a plus plus fastball, a plus breaking ball, and another average breaking ball to pair with what profiles as an average changeup.  I believe the new command is legitimate and even if the changeup does not develop Martin as at least a dominant reliever.

6. Maikel Franco – 3B – Age 20

Lakewood: 503AB, .280/.336/.439, 38BB, 80K, 14HR

Projection: First division regular

Risk: High, Franco has only one year of full season ball and has struggled to make initial adjustments at every level

Major League ETA: 2015

Summary: Besides Quinn Franco is the best chance at a true cornerstone position player in the system.  After struggling in the first half Franco really started to show a good approach as well as the ability to use the full field at the plate.  There is plus game power in the bat and he should stick at third base as long as he keeps his body in check.  Franco could accelerate his development and earn a mid-season jump to Reading if he gets off to a good start.  There is plenty to like and be excited about.

7. Cody Asche – 3B – Age 22

Clearwater: 255AB, .349/.378/.447, 12BB, 37K, 2HR

Reading: 263AB, .300/.360/.513, 22BB, 56K, 10HR

Projection: Solid regular

Risk: Medium, Asche has a small sample size of success but the profile doesn’t really have too many holes

Major League ETA: 2013

Summary: Asche is average across the board, with possibly a plus hit tool.  His upside is limited but he should be a solid major leaguer for years in the future.  Asche likely only needs another half season of minor league ABs between AA and AAA before he should be pushing Michael Young off the position on the major league level.

Four of the next five guys are all high upside, high round/bonus players who will be impossible to have truly ranked properly, someone from this group will likely make a large leap in status and someone will likely fall off towards the back of the list.  For now all have the tools and projection to be above average major league regulars.

8. Carlos Tocci – CF – Age 17

GCL: 97AB, .278/.330/.299, 6BB, 18K

Projection: First division regular

Risk: Extreme, it isn’t just that Tocci hasn’t played above the GCL, we have no clue what he will physically look like

Major League ETA: 2017

Summary:  I believe in Tocci as a plus defender in centerfield with plus plus speed.  That means that the pressure on his bat is much lower.  It is unlikely Tocci will develop average  power given his frame, but if he can add enough strength to allow his good instincts to play up then he could be a monster player.

9. Jonathan Pettibone – RHP – Age 22

Reading: 117.1 IP, 3.30 ERA, 27BB, 81K

Lehigh Valley: 42.1 IP, 2.55 EAR, 22BB, 32K

Projection: #4 Starter

Risk: Low, Pettibone is ready as a #5 starter right now and should be ready as a #4 by mid-season

Major League ETA: 2013

Summary: The more I looked at Pettibone, the more I realized that without the plus fastball or an out pitch, his ceiling is limited.  The good news is that he is ready now, and the changeup is a legitimate plus pitch and it is plus command (at least in Reading).  Pettibone will have to miss a lot more bats or generate more weak contact to have higher upside and I just cannot reasonably project that growth.

10. Shane Watson – RHP – Age 19

GCL: 7IP, 1.29 ERA, 1BB, 8K

Projection: #2/#3 Starter

Risk: Extreme, Watson has pitched only 7 innings, he is very polished though and may be only be a high risk to be a true #3

Major League ETA: 2016

Summary:  Watson is very polished with two plus pitches and an average changeup under development.  He should easily handle a full season assignment and could move quickly through the system.  Watson’s limited debut due to diabetes should be behind him and he impressed in instructs.  With a good year Watson could be near the top of this list.

11. Larry Greene Jr. – LF – Age 20

Williamsport: 257AB, .272/.373/.381, 41BB, 78K, 2HR

Projection: Solid regular

Risk: Extreme, Greene’s carrying tool is power, and at this point we are just projecting that will show up in games

Major League ETA: 2016

Summary:  I gave Greene the benefit of doubt because the power was still there in batting practice.  Greene showed much better plate discipline than expected, but it would do him well to be more selectively aggressive and look to drive his pitch.  Greene is an average runner and defender in left will be good for his future defensive value.  He likely will end up at first base long term but there is no reason he cannot come through the system in left field.

12. Mitch Gueller – RHP – Age 19

GCL: 27.1 IP, 5.27 ERA, 12BB, 19K

Projection: #2/#3 Starter

Risk: Extreme, Gueller is very raw as a pitcher right now

Major League ETA: 2017

Summary:  The case against Gueller is that he was not very good in his GCL debut.  The case for him is that he has a plus fastball that could be plus plus, and a changeup and slurvy breaking ball that both flash plus potential.  On top of that Gueller has a big athletic frame which suggests future projection.  His mechanics need work right now but the Phillies will work with him to smooth them out.  Gueller will take longer than fellow RHP Watson but the payoff could be greater with Gueller.

With the exception of Cozens and Pullin this next group should all make their major league debuts by 2014.  The problem is there might not be major league regulars among them.  All of them have a major flaw that holds back their value.

13. Phillipe Aumont – RHP – Age 24

Lehigh Valley: 44.1 IP, 4.26 ERA, 34BB, 59K

Majors: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 9BB, 14K

Projection: Late inning reliever / Closer

Risk: Medium, despite making the majors Aumont’s control problems are still a problem

Major League ETA: 2012

Summary:  Aumont has the best raw stuff in the organization but the command and control have always been a problem.  Aumont should be a dominant reliever for years which earns him a spot high up on this list.  If Aumont can just keep the ball around the plate, it will make the curveballs he buries out of the zone more effective.  Overall, Aumont could be the best pitcher out of the Phillies pen as early as the end of spring training.

14. Darin Ruf – 1B/LF – Age 26

Reading: 489 AB, .317/.408/.620, 65BB, 102K, 38HR

Majors: 33 AB, .333/.351/.727, 2BB, 12K, 3HR

Projection: Second division regular/platoon bat

Risk: Medium, Ruf’s major league ceiling is based on a crazy month and a half

Major League ETA: 2012

Summary:  There was no good place to rank Ruf.  The reason for ranking Ruf so low is there are concerns about the swing and miss against good stuff now, and that he sells out more for power than his previous high contact line drive approach, in addition to the defensive concerns.  At first base the bat is average to lower because he does not have stand out plate discipline and walk rates, and in left field he does not have the range or skills to be a good defender.  Ruf will have his uses on a major league roster and could start for many teams (and might for the Phillies), but can the bat be enough over a full season of adjustments or overcome the defense.

15. Dylan Cozens – RF – Age 18

GCL: 161 AB, .255/.341/.441, 21BB, 44K, 5HR

Projection: Solid regular

Risk: Extreme, Cozens is still very raw as a two sport athlete transitioning to full time baseball

Major League ETA: 2017

Summary:  Cozens is a freak athlete with plenty of raw power.  He has a stiff long swing that will likely have plenty of miss in it, but he has some semblance of an approach.  In the field he can stick in right with his plus arm for now but as a giant already it is hard to project him long term in the outfield.  Even if he has to move to first the bat will play.  He is likely destined for Extended Spring Training and Williamsport but could find a way to Lakewood at some point.

16. Justin De Fratus – RHP – Age 25

Lehigh Valley: 21.2 IP, 2.49 ERA, 3BB, 22K

Majors: 10.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 5BB, 8K

Projection: Late inning reliever/set-up

Risk: Low, De Fratus would have been a big part of the bullpen in 2012 if it wasn’t for an injury

Major League ETA: 2011

Summary:  De Fratus has a plus fastball and slider and knows what to do with both of them.  De Fratus lacks the upside of Aumont but he is a much safer bet to be a major league reliever.  De Fratus does have dominant high leverage upside earning him a good spot on this list.

17. Andrew Pullin – 2B/OF – Age 19

GCL: 140 AB, .321/.403/.436, 12BB, 32K, 2HR

Projection: Solid Regular

Risk: High, Pullin has never played above complex league ball, but his skill set is low risk as long as he can stick at second

Major League ETA: 2016

Summary:  From the reports I believe that Pullin can stick at second with average defense.  His line drive swing shows good contact ability and average power potential.  He doesn’t have star level tools but he should move quickly with a ceiling as a solid regular.  I believe that Pullin will hit and should move quickly if he can handle second.

18. Austin Wright – LHP – Age 23

Clearwater: 147.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 60BB, 133K

Projection: #4 Starter/Multi-inning reliever

Risk: High, the changeup is starting to appear but the command still holds him back

Major league ETA: 2014

Summary: I just don’t think Wright is a starter long term.  The combination of command problems and his developing changeup really concern me.  That being said I think Wright could be a lefty reliever with more than LOOGY upside.  His stuff reminds me of Antonio Bastardo out of the pen and he could have similar upside.

19. Zach Collier – CF – Age 22

Clearwater: 283 AB, .269/.333/.399, 26BB, 60K, 6HR, 11SB

Projection: Second division regular/4th OF

Risk: High, the optimism on Collier is built strongly on a good showing in the AFL

Major League ETA: 2014

Summary:  Collier had all the tools when the Phillies drafted him in the first round in 2008 but injuries and suspensions have reduced his playing time.  He looked good in Clearwater and then broke out in the Arizona Fall League.  Collier may not be a starter without a huge jump forward in tools, but he could make the big leagues as a solid 4th outfielder-a dream that may not have been possible a year ago.

20. Sebastian Valle – C – Age 22

Reading: 310 AB, .261/.280/.435, 11BB, 83K, 13HR

Lehigh Valley: 78 AB, .218/.232/.397, 2BB, 31K, 4HR

Projection: Backup catcher

Risk: High, despite reaching AAA Valle has no plate discipline

Major League ETA: 2013

Summary:  Valle has no real approach and just sells out for power at the plate.  This leads to a high strikeout rate with a really low walk rate.  At the major league level that approach will be completely exposed.  Behind the plate Valle is a very good receiver, but he does not have a good release making him below average against the run game despite a plus arm.  Overall Valle will need to improve greatly to have a chance as anything more than a marginal back up.

21. Cesar Hernandez – 2B – Age 22

Reading: 411 AB, .304/.345/.436, 27BB, 67K, 16SB, 12CS

Lehigh Valley: 121 AB, .248/.270/.298, 4BB, 11K, 5SB, 3CS

Projection: Second division starter/utility player

Risk: Medium, Hernandez does not have much projection left and will be ready with another season of AAA ABs

Major League ETA: 2013

Summary:  Hernandez has many of the pieces to start for a team but is missing the raw tools to be an average regular.  His power is poor and despite plus to plus plus speed he is a poor base stealer.  Hernandez is limited to a slap hitting approach that gives good contact but does not allow him to draw walks at a high rate.  He is average to slightly above in the field and may be able to play shortstop in short stints to have use as a utility player, but otherwise his use is limited.

The rest of the list is mix of injury fliers (Gillies) and tools fliers, the only guy here who absolutely needs to be on this list is Kenneth Giles, there are valid arguments to why they could be excluded from this list.

22. Mitch Walding – 3B – Age 20

Williamsport: 253 AB, .233/.326/.308, 31BB, 66K, 1HR

Projection: Solid regular

Risk: Extreme, Walding is still learning how to adjust to professional baseball and after a hot start really tailed off

Major League ETA: 2016

Summary:  Despite his terrible finish to the season the scouting reports on Walding remain positive.  Like Larry Greene, Walding may be too passive at the plate and needs to really work on recognizing pitches and choosing his spots.  He has plus raw power to go with a good bat, but it will need some work.  In the field, much like at the plate Walding has all the tools.  He just needs to put it together.  He is a definite breakout candidate if he can put it all together

23. Zach Green – 3B – Age 19

GCL: 169 AB, .284/.333/.426, 8BB, 43K, 3HR

Projection: Solid regular

Risk: Extreme, Green has little actual experience and a large hole or two in his swing

Major League ETA: 2017

Summary:  Green is in many ways a mirror image of Walding right down to them being a righty and lefty.  Green has more power but less hit than Walding.  Walding has a better approach, and Green took better to the defensive transition.  I rate Green so high because I believe in the defense, and if he can continue and build on it, he can take pressure off the bat to be ready immediately.

24. Kenneth Giles – RHP – Age 22

Lakewood: 67.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 44BB, 86K

Clearwater: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 6BB, 25K

Projection: High leverage reliever/closer

Risk: High, Giles has brought his command under control but it is still below average and needs continuing improvement

Major League ETA: 2014

Summary:  Giles’ calling card is a fastball that routinely touches triple digits.  Giles made giant improvements in both strike throwing as well as scrapping all of his secondary except for the slider which now flashes as a plus pitch.  Giles could move quickly once he has a feel for his pitches and could be a dominant closer on arrival.  His value is driven down by his reliever profile as well as my concerns about how quickly he will move.

25. Tyson Gillies – CF – Age 24

Reading: 276 AB, .304/.369/.453, 8SB, 6CS, 4HR

Projection: Solid regular

Risk: Extreme, Gillies has some serious issues staying on the field and some make up questions

Major League ETA: 2013

Summary:  So the good: Gillies is a great defensive center fielder with good range and a plus arm.  Gillies makes good contact and currently has good plate discipline.  The bad: Gillies cannot stay healthy and there seems to be a consistent hamstring problem. Unless he develops better game power (and a swing to pair with it) his on base and running ability (if it comes back) will be severely reduced.  Overall it is a package with some upside, but it is limited by the large injury risk.

26. Kelly Dugan – RF – Age 22

Lakewood: 430 AB, .300/.387/.470, 48BB, 122K, 12HR

Projetion: Second division regular/4th outfielder

Risk: High, 2012 was Dugans first healthy season and driven by an unsustainable BABIP

Major League ETA: 2015

Summary: Upon first looking at just the numbers I had Dugan much higher on this list.  However, his year was driven by an unsustainable BABIP given his high strikeout rate.  There are things to like, Dugan walked at a good rate and made good contact.  After his injury he played a good right field with a plus arm.  At first base he is little more than an org guy and will need to stick in the outfield.

27. Kevin Brady – RHP – Age 22

Williamsport:  39 IP, 1.85 ERA, 5BB, 49K

Projection: #3/#4 starter

Risk: High, as a reliever Brady has low risk to make it to the majors, but as a starter there is plenty of risk in injury and development

Major League ETA: 2015

Summary:  Brady fell in the draft due to injury, but he showed a plus fastball and good breaking ball in his debut.  The changeup has potential as well.  Brady dominated in his debut but the competition was not great.  He will likely double jump to Clearwater where he could move very quickly.  If the changeup doesn’t come he could arrive very quickly in the bullpen.

28. Aaron Altherr – CF – Age 22

Lakewood: 420 AB, .252/.319/.402, 38BB, 102K,  25SB,  8HR

Projection: Second division regular/4th OF

Risk: High, there are still plenty of holes to Altherr’s game despite the positives, and Hi-A will really test his development

Major League ETA: 2015

Summary:  I have always liked Altherr as a prospect and I like him even better now that it appears he can stick in center defensively (the arm might make up for not having elite range).  Altherr may never be a star or a solid regular, but I feel more confident after his 2012 that there is a major league player in there (at very least a 4th outfielder).

29. Jose Pujols – RF – Age 17

Projection: A Dream

Risk: Ludicrous

Major League ETA: 2018?

Summary:  Pujols is a dream at this point.  All we know is he has massive batting practice generated from strength and ridiculous bat speed.  Pujols has almost no game approach at this point and his swing will need to be retooled to close up some holes that will be exploited.  In the field Pujols has the arm and range for right field.

30. Gabriel Lino – C – Age 19

Delmarva: 206 AB, .218/.282/.340, 16BB, 64K, 4HR

Lakewood: 123 AB, .227/.311/.371, 14BB, 33K, 3HR

Projection: Solid regular

Risk: Ludicrous, Lino is either going to find a good approach and footwork and be a monster or he is not going to make it to AA

Major League ETA: 2016

Summary:  This is a tools pick, it came down to three catchers for the last spot in Lino, Grullon, and Rupp.  I aimed high on the projection because he is a pure boom or bust player.  Lino has huge holes on offense and defense that are not allowing his monster tools to appear in game action.  Lino is still very young so there is time, but there is a lot that can go wrong here.

Other Players I have Opinions on:

Cameron Rupp – He just didn’t have enough upside for me, he just missed the list because of the safety, but he isn’t more than a backup.

Deivi Grullon – Grullon’s plus defensive projection gives me good hope.  Huge questions about the hit tools’ future projection dropped him just off the list, in addition to the lack of an elite carrying tool.

Brody Colvin – I don’t think Colvin is a starter anymore.  He is really going to have to get the mechanics in order to even have a spot in a bullpen.

Kyle Simon – Despite the one dominating pitch, the sinker, he is just a middle reliever who might be ready in late 2013.

Tyler Cloyd – The stuff just isn’t good enough to do anything other than pitch innings.

Brian Pointer – Pointer has less contact and more power than expected.  He needs to keep building on the power and show more of his Williamsport season than his Lakewood season.  Having to move to a corner has put much more pressure on the bat.

Leandro Castro – It is a 4th/5th outfielder profile.  He can play all three positions and can hit with good contact and power, but he does not have good plate discipline or secondary skills to profile offensively in a corner.

Franklyn Vargas – Vargas has great stuff including a plus plus fastball from the left side.  There are a lot of control problems here, but plenty of youth to work on it.

Yoel Mecias – Mecias has less stuff than Vargas and a year older, but he has better control profile, he could make the jump to Lakewood to start 2013.

Sergio Velis – Velis has less stuff than Vargas or Mecias, but advanced feel and control of three average pitches.

Perci Garner – Should be a power arm reliever.  The fastball/slider combination should be good enough to make him a possible late inning reliever if the stuff plays up.

Julio Rodriguez – The curveball misses bats and the fastball is well below average.  A move to the bullpen with the cutter and curveball could give him a major league career.

Kyrell Hudson – Plus arm and near elite speed make him great defensive center fielder.  The bat just has to be average for him to be good, though there is some pop in the swing.

Jiawn James – Plus defender, with no approach, he is a 4th outfielder at best.

Anthony Hewitt – Still has insane raw tools and no pitch recognition.  No one thought he would reach AA, still could make the bigs somehow.

Cameron Perkins – He can play all four corners, the bat is good, but he can be a little overaggressive.  It isn’t star tools but he could be a regular if everything breaks right.

Sleepers:

David Buchanan – At best he is a #4 starter, but likely he is a #5 or lower, but he could be ready mid-season and be a long man for the major league club.  He has better raw stuff than Cloyd or Hyatt with better groundball tendencies, albeit with much lower strikeout rates

Braden Shull – Big body projectable lefty who has yet to really pitch for the Phillies.  Shull will turn 20 in May so a trip to the NYPL is not a bad developmental path.

Manuare Martinez – Dominated in the GCL, struggled in Williamsport.  He has a fastball with good two-seam movement he can run up to 95-96 to pair with a sharp slider.  The changeup still needs work.  Martinez isn’t a big pitcher so he might end up in the bullpen but it is a live arm.

Marek Minarek – Big Czech pitcher with plenty of room to fill in.  He will be 19 to start the season and got experience pitching in WBC qualifiers.  He might not make a big impact in 2013 but he was a long term project to begin with.

Breakout Prospect:

Carlos Tocci – The defensive profile is legitimate.  He has such an advanced feel for the game that there is a lot more safety to him than other 17 year olds.  If he can continue to barrel the ball up he will be valuable offensively even without big power.

Organization Top 10: 25 and Under:

Biddle

Morgan

Quinn

Revere

Brown

Joseph

Martin

Franco

Asche

Galvis

Revere is a solid regular at the major league level but Biddle and Morgan project to be above average within the next year.  Brown still has plenty projection even if he has been a disappointment to this point.  Galvis could be a solid regular on defense alone but there are questions surrounding his suspension that drop him behind Asche for me.

Top 5 Prospects for 2013:

Aumont

Ruf

DeFratus

Pettibone

Asche

Aumont should have an impact out of the bullpen all year, and Ruf will likely only have a platoon role.  If De Fratus makes the bullpen he likely won’t be in the high leverage innings Aumont should get.  If Lannan or Kendrick struggle or there is a pitching injury, Pettibone should be the first call up.  I think Asche will get the call up before September and take over at third or be a valuable bench bat.