Aidan Miller

Role: First Division Regular
Risk: High – Miller is an older high school draftee who played 16 games (including playoffs) in full season ball. He has some length in his swing due to a pre-swing bat wrap that may need to be cleaned up when he faces more advanced pitching. He also posted very good exit velocity and plate discipline numbers in full season ball for a player drafted this summer.
Summary: Sometimes the draft is complicated, and sometimes it comes to a team. The Phillies have been short on picks and open to taking risks in order to compensate for talent loss. Miller was one of the top high school hitters in the country, but he is old for the class (was 19 at the time of the draft) and had not hit for power as a senior due to a hamate fracture. All of that makes him less attractive to a team heavy on analytical models or uncomfortable with the lack of scouting views. The Phillies were happy to take him, and they pushed him quickly to Clearwater after the end of the FCL season. Miller is physically mature, and while he will get stronger, he isn’t super projectable. That is fine, because in the small sample in Clearwater he put up an average exit velocity of 88.2mph, 90th percentile of 105.0mph, and a max of 109.3mph. Those aren’t off the chart elite, but it is 31 balls in play vs full season competition at age 19. He is going to have plenty of raw power, and some of how much shows up in games will depend on his type of contact and whether he continues to have an all fields approach or tries to pull in the air a bit more. His swing has some length to it thanks to a backwards wrapping motion at the beginning that also leads to an arm bar through the zone. He has great bat speed and it currently works for him, but there is some potential vulnerability against pitchers with better stuff. Quieting and simplifying the swing, and then readjusting timing is likely a discussion for when he encounters adversity, and not a proactive correction (unless he initiates it). For now it is something to keep an eye on, but not something to stay up at night about. The other reason it works is his pitch recognition and approach are excellent. Once again it is a small sample size, but he swung at 40% of the pitches he saw with the Threshers, with a 13.5% whiff rate on those swings and 5.4% of the total pitches he saw. The data says he was susceptible to sliders (30.8% whiff rate), but the small sample means that was 4 whiffs on 13 swings and 39 pitches seen. They were sliders up in the zone (which are becoming a more popular technique), but it was a glaring chase hole. If the swing proves to not be an issue, or is cleaned up with no loss of abilities, he could be a plus hitter with plus power and settle into the middle of a postseason lineup.

Defensively, Miller only played shortstop in pro ball, but he is unlikely to stick at the position. The Phillies have not indicated that he is permanently moving off of it, but he should start to get reps at third base, and it is not hard to read the room and see Trea Turner and Bryson Stott entrenched at short and second in Philly and see Miller as Bohm’s replacement. At shortstop he moves pretty well, but his range and movement were just not on the same level as the others the team had playing up the middle. Given that he is likely to lose a step or two as he fills out, it does not look tenable there either. At third, he has plenty of arm, and his actions at shortstop should play well at the hot corner. Until he plays the position, it will be hard to throw superlatives on it, but he has the tools to be an above average to plus defender. Miller is advanced enough that he should move pretty quickly for a high school hitter, and there is a chance that everyone is a bit low on the upside. For now, the sample sizes are small enough and the worries are just numerous enough that it is hard to project him with a higher upside, but another year of playing time could change that.
2024 Outlook: Miller will open the year in Clearwater and likely play a mix of shortstop and third base. Given his age and advanced approach, it is likely he gets to Jersey Shore by the summer. Any promotion beyond that will likely be due to season ending dates and postseason qualification for various affiliates.