Jean Cabrera

Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Cabrera just finished a year as a 21 year old in the Florida State League where he was more fine than dominant. He has major league ability, but there is a fine line between back end starter and not major leaguer.
Summary: Cabrera signed in July of 2019 as a 17 year old, for a small bonus (as most overage pitchers end up having to do). He didn’t pitch in a game for the Phillies for nearly two years, and was dominant when he took the mound in the DSL in 2021, earning himself the Paul Owens Award. He struggled in 2022 as they aggressively pushed him to the Florida State League, but was much better upon repeating the level. Cabrera is definitely bigger than his list weight, and likely height, as he has filled out since signing. A bit older and stronger, he was able to sit in the higher end of his velocity range this season, 93 to 96, and despite a dip in August, he was able to rebound in September when he got a bit more rest. He has thrown both a 4-seamer and sinker, with the Phillies working the two seamer more over the course of the season. He had better results with the 4-seamer, but the sinker fits the rest of the arsenal slightly better. I expect him to throw both of them in the long term. He gets decent spin on both, and he can get some decent ride on the 4-seamer, but nothing elite, just enough to get misses up in the zone. His slider has some sweeper characteristics, and the Phillies tweaked it some over the season to be more horizontally oriented, trading about 2 inches of drop for 2 inches of sweep. It has been his best pitch, and he does very well to put it in the zone for called strikes as well. He had a harder changeup coming into the season that tunneled off of the 4-seamer, but without great movement characteristics. He now throws it a couple of miles per hour slower, but gets a lot more drop and fade on it. He primarily has used it as a chase pitch, and he sells it well. He used to have a curveball, but the Phillies scrapped it this season. Like many young pitchers, Cabrera is more control than command still, and he can throw the ball for a strike, but he doesn’t always hit all of his spots. He does repeat his delivery pretty well, so I would expect that he improves there with time. Statistically, Cabrera was very unlucky in 2023, with his BABIP of .432 being one of the highest in the minors, despite generating a large amount of ground ball contact. I hesitate to use minor league FIP (and I should note he ran an unusually low HR/FB rate), but his FIP of 3.13 vs his ERA of 4.32 shows sort of the luck gap. He made two dominant appearances in the postseason giving him a total innings output over 93, which might be the most successful part of his season. There is a chance that Cabrera finds another gear and he is more of a #3 than a 4, but it is not to difficult to see the outlines of a #4 that can go be the modern version of an innings eater.
2024 Outlook: Cabrera will open the year with Jersey Shore and has already gone through one round of Rule 5 eligibility. If he excels with the BlueClaws, it would not be surprising if the Phillies push him to Reading at some point in the summer.

Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – We learned more about Cabrera this year, but it was not the step forward that might have been expected given the reports from 2021. His stuff is still fairly ordinary, and while it flashes potential, the longer he goes from actualizing it the more doubt there is that it will happen.
Summary: It was always going to be a rough transition going directly from the DSL to full season ball for Cabrera, but it would have been better for it to not have been this rough. He struggled to work deep into games as his control went backwards, he struggled to miss bats, and was fairly hittable. Cabrera’s arsenal was not overwhelming either with his fastball sitting 91 to 95, though with high spin that can miss bats up in the zone. His changeup got hit around, and his two breaking balls had a tendency to blend. While not the youngest player, he is still fairly projectable and this was only his second year of pitching in pro ball. If he can treat the 2022 season as more of a learning and growing experience, he still has the base to be a #4 type starting pitcher with some small chance at more than that. After attempting to accelerate his development in 2022, the Phillies are likely going to need to take things a little slow with Cabrera going forward.
2023 Outlook: Given his struggles in Clearwater, it would not be surprising if Cabrera starts back there to begin. Results are going to matter more in 2023, but it will be important for his secondary pitches to show some growth as well.

Risk: Extreme – Cabrera is a late signing international pitcher who is 20 years old with no stateside pitching experience. He has an interesting skill set and upside, but is still more of a mystery and a project.
Summary: If you followed DSL box scores this season, then Jean Cabrera’s numbers really stood out, but it was truly a surprise to everyone when the Phillies awarded him the Paul Owens Award for pitching this season. However, Cabrera isn’t just a collection of good stats as a 19 year old in the DSL. He has a projectable frame and was up to 97 with his fastball, sitting more in the 93-94 range. He has a slider and changeup, both of which need work. He is very much a project, and one that is a bit older than most of his peers, but he has the strike throwing ability and arm strength to be intriguing. Given that foundation, the Phillies could possibly push him aggressively to Clearwater, instead of waiting for the FCL season to begin.
2022 Outlook: Given his age and pitch control, the Phillies could be aggressive with Cabrera’s development in 2022. Whether they aggressively push him or not, the 2022 season will be about improving his secondary pitches and having success against more advanced hitters.