Justin Crawford

Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Crawford put up great statistical results in 2023, but not in a way that will translate to being a successful major league hitter. He has the underlying physical tools to be a positive offensive player and plus defensive center fielder, but it is going to take the Phillies and him doing extensive work at the plate.
Summary: On the surface, Justin Crawford put up a great season, he hit .332/.392/.467 with 47 stolen bases and reasonable walk and strikeout rates. The first layer under the surface begins to show the cracks, his .404 BABIP was high, and especially so when taken alongside his balls in play. He had only a 16.6% line drive rate and was easily the minor league leader (min 300 PAs) in ground ball rate at 69.7%. The minor league batted ball classification had him with only 38 fly balls on the year and only 30 of them reaching the outfield. His Clearwater batted ball data had him with a median launch angle of -9 degrees, and while that made some slight improvements over the course of the season, his ground ball rate spiked again with Jersey Shore. Most of his success on offense came from his plus plus speed, balls on the ground, and inexperienced fielders in the low minors. Against major leaguers there is a chance that this approach would get him a decent amount of singles, but there are other warning signs. Crawford was an aggressive swinger (53.9% swing rate) who was equally aggressive against anything but curveballs (curveball swing rate 39.8%, all other pitches >50%, including sliders at 57.7%). He was able to make contact with a good amount of fastballs, but he posted high swing and miss rates on sliders and cutters. Most of this came in the form of chase, and pitchers had success against him down and out of the zone.

Many of these problems stem from two things, and unfortunately they are two of the hardest things to correct. The first is his pitch recognition. His overall swing rate is not a huge problem, but he was vulnerable to being caught looking on fastballs (and most pitches) away, but his swing rate on sliders being near where it was on 4-seam fastballs indicates an overall problem with pitch recognition. The other problem is his swing. Crawford’s upper body and lower body are completely disconnected, and his swing can just be all arms at times. That leaves his bat path chopping down, and he struggles to get on plane with a pitch to be able to drive it in the air. All three of his home runs came on balls down and in, and that was true of most of his power, as we can see on a heat map of his isolated power in Clearwater.

The pitches down and in are where his lower half is forced to be engaged on the swing, and he gets the loft needed to be able to drive the ball. Because he doesn’t have his lower half engaged, he doesn’t do damage on the pitches in the high danger parts of the zone.

It is clear that the Phillies and Crawford will need to work on his swing, and they have already started on that. Swing changes are not easy, but there are positive underlying numbers that indicate that these changes could make Crawford into a good hitter. Despite the swing problems and pitch recognition issues, Crawford had the bat control to have a low in zone whiff rate, and while often off balance, he was able to get the bat on the ball. Unlike some of the other hitters in the Phillies org, Crawfords exit velocity numbers are fine for his age. With Clearwater, he averaged 86.5mph, with a 90th percentile outcome of 103.5mph, and a max of 107.4mph. I hesitate to say that exit velocity on balls hit directly into the ground will translate directly into fly balls and line drives. Even if that doesn’t all translate with a swing change with more loft, Crawford is still very skinny and is expected to add strength. It is not unreasonable to think he could get to at least average raw power. He will still need to be able to actually tap into that with his swing, but having the existing wrist and arm strength to control the bat in the zone and still impact that ball is a good base.

This has all ignored the other part of Crawford’s game. He has plus plus speed, and he should be able to use it on the base paths and on infield ground balls. Additionally, regardless of the above discussion of swing changes, bunt base hits are going to be a part of his repertoire, and he already shows some proficiency in them. The speed also plays in the outfield, where he is already a good defensive center fielder. He lacks the instincts and route running that Johan Rojas did at the same level, but there is time to grow into some of that, and that will determine whether he is a plus defender in center or an elite one.

None of the flaws for Crawford are new or surprising, and he might have more upside now than he did a year ago. The risk of making a pretty dramatic swing change and the pitch recognition issues mean that he is very high risk despite the high defensive floor.
2024 Outlook: Crawford spent most of a month in Jersey Shore to end 2023, and he should return there to open 2024. He may make the improvements he needs and push himself to Reading by the middle of the season. He may also need to be pushed to a level where he is challenged in a way that forces him to make changes.

Role: Regular Center Fielder
Risk: Extreme – Crawford’s risk comes in two forms. The first is the obvious, he is 19 years old, not physically mature, and a long way of development away from the majors. The other is that he does not make consistent hard or impactful contact with the ball.
Summary: The Phillies have spent a few years showing they struggle to develop hitters and succeed with pitchers, particularly high school arms. They decided to take the challenge of correcting that fully on, by going with a long term project of a pick. Crawford comes from good bloodlines, but even if he wasn’t Carl Crawford’s son there is obvious talent to work with. He has a lanky frame that is unlikely to fill out for big time power, but should also maintain his athleticism as he fills out. That is important because he is at least a plus plus runner who should be a plus center field defender in the long term. His swing looks good, and he can get the bat on the ball. He just does not have much impact behind the swing and does not seem to be adept at finding his pitches to drive and then doing damage on them.

There is not really a role for a slap and run hitter in the modern game, especially not from a player taken with the 17th pick in the draft. This does not mean that Crawford is going to need to become a 20+ home run hitter to have value to a major league team. He is going to need to at least be able to hit hard line drives so that he can use his legs to get extra bases in the gaps. Ideally though, you want to take a projectable bodied teenager with elite athleticism and get a plus bat at a premium position out of it. Crawford has only played in 16 professional games, and the Phillies have made some distinct changes in their hitting development personnel, so this is not a fated poor outcome.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies will likely send Crawford back to the Threshers where he should spend most of the season. They have given late season promotions to their top prospects, so he could end the year in Jersey Shore. We might not see the power numbers yet, but it would be good to see him start to show the underlying swing characteristics to allow him to utilize his strength as he grows into it.

Role: Solid Regular Short of a Breakout
Risk: High – Crawford has yet to really develop a solid floor while his ceiling continues to stay out of reach. Despite his speed, he has not been an impact defender in center field, and while he has improved, he continues to hit the ball on the ground at an alarming rate.
Summary: In many ways Crawford gets credit for things that won’t work at the next level while hiding skills more impactful than often talked about. His swing is still a mess, though it is an improving mess. He too often will have a flat, arms only path through the zone, and while his coordination is good enough to get the bat on the ball, it has been a recipe for poor contact. His pitch recognition and approach have also not been great, which has led to some of the ill advised swings. His ground ball rate (60.9% on the season) was among the highest in the minors, and while he has at minimum 70 grade speed, he just is not going to provide sufficient offensive value hitting the ball on the ground. Major league defenders are going to be much more likely to make outs, and the potential for using his speed to leg out doubles is greatly reduced if he is not getting the ball in the air. He also could benefit from getting the ball in the air because he is not without power. While many of them have been balls hit directly into the dirt, his 90th percentile EV of 104.6 mph was average among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects. He doesn’t need to become a three true outcome, lift and pull hitter, he should be getting the ball in the air enough to be a 15-20 home run a year hitter who gets a large number of doubles and triples due to line drives and speed. Part of it will be finding better connectedness in his swing, and some will be working on his approach to actually look to square up the ball more in favorable counts and let his contact abilities and speed work as a secondary skill. Crawford was once again good on the bases thanks to his speed, and if he can get on base he is going to pick up extra value with his legs. His speed is hiding a scary deficiency on defense. His routes and jumps have been subpar, and he is not as aggressive a defender as his speed should allow him to be. Right now, he projects as an ok defender in center, and he should be at least plus. That leaves him with a very volatile set of skills, because there is a path where he is a plus defender, who is a terror on the bases, while putting up above average offensive numbers. That is probably an all-star level ceiling with the current state of centerfield, but you can’t say he does any of those things particularly well. The other side of the spectrum is Johan Rojas with a bit more thump and two to three grades worse defense, and that is a player type the Phillies have pushed aside. Crawford just turned 21, and while there is a real call in the fanbase for him to come up and try and solve the center field position, it might make more sense for the Phillies to really take their time to develop him as a more complete player rather than rush him.
2025 Outlook: Crawford should start the year with Reading and could see AAA by the summer. Unless he suddenly puts it all together, another year of high minor seasoning is probably good for him.