Name: Orion Kerkering
Position: RHP
Born: April 4, 2001
Country: US
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’2″ 204lbs
How Acquired: Drafted in the 5th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
Signed: July 25, 2022
Bonus: $322,500
Options Remaining: 3
Rule 5 Eligible: 2025
MiLB Free Agency: 2028
Stats
Pitcher Statcast
*Statcast data only available for FSL (2021-2023), AAA (2023), and isolated select games and locations.
| Pitch Type | Year | #of Pitches | Average Velocity | Max Velocity | Median Spin | VBreak | HBreak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 2022 | 20 | 95.9 | 96.9 | 2273 | 12 | -12 |
| Sinker | 2023 | 79 | 98.1 | 100.0 | 2334 | 12 | -11 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 2022 | 30 | 95.3 | 97.0 | 2260 | 13 | -9 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 2023 | 10 | 98.5 | 100.1 | 2352 | 11 | -8 |
| Changeup | 2022 | 6 | 89.2 | 90.8 | 2079 | 24 | -13 |
| Slider | 2022 | 46 | 85.5 | 87.4 | 2980 | 38 | 11 |
| Slider | 2023 | 68 | 87.5 | 89.7 | 3008 | 38 | 16 |
Pitcher Tracking
*Pitch tracking data sourced from Statcast, broadcasts, and individual reports
| Pitch Type | Year | Velocity Low | Velocity High | Velocity Max | Games Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA | 2023 | 96 | 99 | 102 | 10 |
| FA | 2022 | 94 | 96 | 97 | 4 |
| SW | 2023 | 86 | 90 | 90 | 7 |
| SL | 2023 | 86 | 87 | 87 | 1 |
| SL | 2022 | 84 | 87 | 87 | 4 |
Prospect Rankings
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Medium – Kerkering pitched in the 2023 postseason for the Phillies and had some effective outings. He was likely the best reliever in the minors last season. His fastball is just ok given its velocity, and his command was just not quite where it needed to be in order to be a late inning shut down reliever.
Summary: Kerkering’s breakout started in Spring Training when it was clear he had made a velocity jump. He then conquered every level of the minors and ended up in the majors and on the Phillies postseason roster. Kerkering’s best pitch is his sweeper, which is plus plus, if not an 80 grade pitch. It has outlier sweeper motion in terms of vertical and horizontal movement, but he throws it harder than almost any pitcher in the majors (averaged 86mph in the majors, was closer to 87 or 88 on average in the minors) and with a spin rate that would be one of the best as well. He can throw it in the zone for strikes or for chases, and it has elite rates for in zone swing and miss and chases. His fastball velocity jumped from averaging about 95 in his pro debut in 2022, to 98+ in 2023, and he touched up to 102 with it during the season. Despite the velocity, he does not always get great results on it because the movement is not ideal. He told beat writers that he is working on his sinker this offseason. Having two fastballs will give him the ability to show hitters more looks, and while he can still work the sweeper in the zone off of high 4 seamers, he will be able to work east-west more with the sweeper and sinker the way that Clay Holmes has done. Kerkering has good command of his sweeper, but his fastball command can be lacking at times, and as was shown in the postseason, he will need to at least show hitters a fastball to keep them off the sweeper. Kerkering’s upside is as a closer for a postseason team, and given the Phillies bullpen usage, that could be for them as they move others around, or he could find himself in more of a stopper and 7th/8th inning role.
2024 Outlook: Kerkering will get a very good chance to make the major league team in camp. The Phillies have a bunch of major league arms, and many of them don’t have any minor league options remaining, so a poor camp could see him heading to AAA. He should spend most of 2024 and his career in the major leagues, likely in high leverage.
Role: 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – Kerkering is a tailor made good 4th to 6th best reliever in a bullpen. He has a good fastball and a wicked breaking ball that is at least plus. He has a track record of success in college out of the bullpen.
Summary: The Phillies have not been afraid to take college pitchers they view as relievers early and often in the draft. There is a small chance they do attempt to move Kerkering back into the rotation in 2023, but everything about his profile says fast moving reliever. His fastball (of the 4 and 2 seam varieties) is a solid pitch, sitting around 95 and reaching up to 97 in pro ball. He threw a changeup in college, but none as a pro. The big selling point on Kerkering is his slider (of which Statcast typed many as curveballs). It averaged right about 3000 RPM in pro-ball, sitting about 85 mph with big, two plane sweep. It projects as at least a plus pitch, and it will not be surprising if it is Kerkering’s most used pitch for much of his career. He has shown no qualms about breaking it down on the feet of lefties, keeping him from being an extreme platoon arm. Given the lack of a dominant fastball or other pitch/attribute it is hard to see Kerkering as an 8th/9th inning lockdown reliever, but he could move quickly in more of the middle to 7th inning type role, where the Phillies could see if can handle multiple innings.
2023 Outlook: Assuming they don’t try to mess with success and put Kerkering in a rotation again, they should send him to Jersey Shore where he should move quickly if he has success. It is highly unlikely he ascends in a way that puts himself in position for a role in 2023, but he can ascend to at least AA and get himself in the conversation as 2024 depth.
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Medium – Kerkering pitched in the 2023 postseason for the Phillies and had some effective outings. He was likely the best reliever in the minors last season. His fastball is just ok given its velocity, and his command was just not quite where it needed to be in order to be a late inning shut down reliever.
Summary: Kerkering’s breakout started in Spring Training when it was clear he had made a velocity jump. He then conquered every level of the minors and ended up in the majors and on the Phillies postseason roster. Kerkering’s best pitch is his sweeper, which is plus plus, if not an 80 grade pitch. It has outlier sweeper motion in terms of vertical and horizontal movement, but he throws it harder than almost any pitcher in the majors (averaged 86mph in the majors, was closer to 87 or 88 on average in the minors) and with a spin rate that would be one of the best as well. He can throw it in the zone for strikes or for chases, and it has elite rates for in zone swing and miss and chases. His fastball velocity jumped from averaging about 95 in his pro debut in 2022, to 98+ in 2023, and he touched up to 102 with it during the season. Despite the velocity, he does not always get great results on it because the movement is not ideal. He told beat writers that he is working on his sinker this offseason. Having two fastballs will give him the ability to show hitters more looks, and while he can still work the sweeper in the zone off of high 4 seamers, he will be able to work east-west more with the sweeper and sinker the way that Clay Holmes has done. Kerkering has good command of his sweeper, but his fastball command can be lacking at times, and as was shown in the postseason, he will need to at least show hitters a fastball to keep them off the sweeper. Kerkering’s upside is as a closer for a postseason team, and given the Phillies bullpen usage, that could be for them as they move others around, or he could find himself in more of a stopper and 7th/8th inning role.
2024 Outlook: Kerkering will get a very good chance to make the major league team in camp. The Phillies have a bunch of major league arms, and many of them don’t have any minor league options remaining, so a poor camp could see him heading to AAA. He should spend most of 2024 and his career in the major leagues, likely in high leverage.
Role: 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – Kerkering is a tailor made good 4th to 6th best reliever in a bullpen. He has a good fastball and a wicked breaking ball that is at least plus. He has a track record of success in college out of the bullpen.
Summary: The Phillies have not been afraid to take college pitchers they view as relievers early and often in the draft. There is a small chance they do attempt to move Kerkering back into the rotation in 2023, but everything about his profile says fast moving reliever. His fastball (of the 4 and 2 seam varieties) is a solid pitch, sitting around 95 and reaching up to 97 in pro ball. He threw a changeup in college, but none as a pro. The big selling point on Kerkering is his slider (of which Statcast typed many as curveballs). It averaged right about 3000 RPM in pro-ball, sitting about 85 mph with big, two plane sweep. It projects as at least a plus pitch, and it will not be surprising if it is Kerkering’s most used pitch for much of his career. He has shown no qualms about breaking it down on the feet of lefties, keeping him from being an extreme platoon arm. Given the lack of a dominant fastball or other pitch/attribute it is hard to see Kerkering as an 8th/9th inning lockdown reliever, but he could move quickly in more of the middle to 7th inning type role, where the Phillies could see if can handle multiple innings.
2023 Outlook: Assuming they don’t try to mess with success and put Kerkering in a rotation again, they should send him to Jersey Shore where he should move quickly if he has success. It is highly unlikely he ascends in a way that puts himself in position for a role in 2023, but he can ascend to at least AA and get himself in the conversation as 2024 depth.