A week from today the Phillies will need to protect players eligible for the Rule 5 draft by adding them to the 40 man roster. Historically the Phillies have leaned towards over protection, but that has often left the 40 man roster full and inflexible for in season moves. This offseaon the high school and international class of 2017 and college class of 2018 becomes eligible. The Phillies have already jumped that gun a little bit with Hans Crouse, Matt Vierling, and Alec Bohm already added to rosters. Those newly eligible will be joined by the carryover from previous years. Overall, it looks to be a relatively low protection load for the Phillies, and they could leave some interesting, but unlikely to be selected players available.
The Lock: Luis Garcia
Garcia was the Phillies top international signing in 2017, and rocketed up lists quickly in 2018, but an aggressive assignment and poor performance in 2019 sent his stock plummeting. Over the missed season he got stronger and it showed, as he put up career high power and hard hit numbers, and improving as the season went on. He has a good approach at the plate, putting up high walk numbers at both A-ball levels. He can play both middle infield positions and projects plus defensively at both. While he doesn’t quite look like the impact prospect he did 3 years ago, he is an easy top 10 prospect in the Phillies system with plenty of remaining upside, and in a bottom half system you can’t afford players like that to be lost for nothing.
Read the Room: Jhailyn Ortiz
Ortiz is in his 3rd year of Rule 5 eligibility, but is also coming off of easily his best season. He is getting to his plus plus raw power more, while cutting down on his swing and miss. An injury cut short his time in AA, but it was an overall impressive step forward for the 22 year old outfielder. Ortiz has major league tools and is in AA, so it is not inconceivable that a team takes him and tries to keep him in the majors all year. That isn’t a large chance, so this might be a place where the Phillies need to know how the industry feels before making a protection decision. If there is a team interested in Ortiz they should protect him, if not they don’t need to jump the gun.
Starters That Could be Interesting Relievers: James McArthur
One of the most common Rule 5 archetypes are high minors starting pitchers who teams think will have their stuff play up in relief. McArthur is a large righty with a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and will show two good breaking balls. He has decent control, but has been prone to leaving hittable pitches in the zone. He has been starting in the Phillies system and in the Arizona Fall League, but it is really easy to see a scenario where he moves to the bullpen and is a quality piece. The Phillies lack in optionable bullpen depth and it makes a bunch of sense for them to jump other teams and add McArthur to the 40 man roster and move him to the bullpen.
Left Handed Relievers: Zach Warren, Braeden Ogle
Both are returnees to the Rule 5 eligible pile, though Ogle was a low minors pitcher in the Pirates system at this time last year. Ogle throws harder than Warren, but Warren has the better breaking ball. Both can have questionable control. The Phillies gave up a real prospect for Ogle, but he was disaster after the trade. Teams are always looking for left handed velocity, but it is likely there is better available in the draft. The only difference here is that if there is something the Phillies see in Ogle that they don’t want to potentially lose.
Low Minors Pitchers: Cristian Hernandez, Ben Brown, Rodolfo Sanchez, Ethan Lindow
Hernandez was a breakout prospect for the Phillies this year and was going to be at the center of a deadline trade. The 21 year old right hander is up to 96 with his fastball and starter’s pitch mix. That said, he hasn’t pitched above low-A, does not have strong reliever traits, and while a good prospect he isn’t good enough that a team wants to waste a year of development just to have a chance at that upside. Brown had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and spent most of 2021 rusty, but he showed a velocity spike in the FCL putting himself back on prospect radars. In many ways he is similar to McArthur, but without the upper minors experience. His stuff isn’t good enough to project immediate bullpen impact which should leave him unpicked. Rodolfo Sanchez is another Clearwater RHP with a fastball in the mid 90s and solid slider and changeup. He probably profiles as a reliever long term, and for right now he is probably too far off to interest another organization. Lindow looked on pace to be a lock for Rule 5 protection as this season’s version of Bailey Falter, but he struggled in AA and spent most of the year in high A. He is a soft tossing lefty with a good feel for pitching and solid offspeed pitches and command. If he was finishing up the year in AA, a team might be interested in him as a left handed reliever, but his lack of upper minors success should keep others away for now.
Quick Hits:
- Scott Kingery/Mark Appel: Technically available, but not going to be taken.
- Jhordany Mezquita: Long term relief profile who flashed some success late. He doesn’t have a great track record, but his high spin curveball could appeal to certain people.
- David Parkinson: Soft tossing lefty who has seen his star fade.
- Dalton Guthrie: Had a breakout of sorts at age 25, and can play all over the field. Probably not enough upside to be taken, but is a guy to watch for the Phillies this spring.
- Victor Vargas: A step behind the low minors starters above, back end starter profile with strikes and ground balls.
- Jack Perkins: Soft tossing righty with good offspeed pitches.
- Colton Eastman: Soft tossing righty, who has a high spin curveball, but has not shown the higher level control he had as an amateur.
Prediction
Garcia is a lock, and McArthur looks likely. Ortiz is probably limited by a 40 man roster than has outfielders, but no real starters, so his path to protection likely needs to involve the Phillies moving one of Haseley, Moniak, or Muzziotti. Ortiz is one of only a few prospects in the Phillies system with plus power so they may protect him because of that. It feels unlikely they protect Ogle or Warren. So that is 2 protections with a chance at a 3rd.