Phillies Offseason Inaction Driven by Lack of Organizational Depth

To the frustration of many Phillies fans, the Phillies offseason has consisted mostly of resigning Aaron Nola and making some minor league moves. Fans see players like Ohtani and Soto change organizations without the Phillies involved, and not only a lack of rumors around top free agents, but outright denials from the team, and wonder why the Phillies sit on their hands. Meanwhile the Phillies have talked or indicated a need to make smaller moves such as some bench bats and right relief to increase their depth. That end word is the most important one when it comes to understanding the Phillies offseason.

Depth is resiliency and redundancy. There is major league depth and there is organizational depth. They are slightly different concepts, but they go hand in hand as to why the Phillies are operating the way they are. On a basic team building front, you need depth because shit happens. Almost all  teams will use more than 5 starting pitchers, usually way more. Teams may churn through 20 relievers in a year. And as Phillies fans have seen in the last few years, vital hitters on your team can miss large portions of time. Having and building depth allows for a team to better weather those times.

Depth also allows a team to make moves by trading excess to fit holes. This is where organizational and really prospect depth comes in. The Phillies have 4-6 major prospects of note. That means on a major deal those are the guys that must be involved, and because teams are individual actors and not parts of a consensus, the team must want those guys at a high valuation. If a team wants starting pitching it is Mick Abel or Andrew Painter or it is nothing. If a teams wants low minors hitting and doesn’t love Justin Crawford, you need to be ok trading Aidan Miller. The drop off below this top grouping is large and the Phillies system doesn’t have the pieces to cobble together a platter of just ok. The same thing is largely true in the majors. The Phillies have a complete roster and team, but there aren’t extra pieces lying around as the bench currently consists of some combination of Stubbs, Cave, Pache, Sosa, Castro, and others. The starting rotation is full, but the #6 starter is probably Mick Abel. It doesn’t mean that the Phillies have a bad team, it means they are also looking for depth.

This lack of extra options to fill holes manifests in the trade flexibility the team has. A popular take early in the offseason was trading Nick Castellanos or Taijuan Walker to open up money for a different move. The problem is there is no immediate replacement for either player internally which means that if you move them with the goal of clearing money there is little return in prospects and possibly some attached. you must then spend more money or prospects to replace them. It does seem at times (and maybe may still happen) the Phillies would be open to signing another starting pitcher that they view as a better fit and then flipping Walker off to another team. In the case of Castellanos, the hitter market is bleak, and as I mentioned in my offseason preview the best case with Castellanos was that you would spend money and prospects to essentially end up with different Nick Castellanos. That is a lateral move, and given that Castellanos is still a major league contributor (even if he is more average than an All-Star) was a risky one.

This also crops up with trades for established players, say for example Juan Soto. There is a definite divide in the industry of Drew Thorpe, but even if you think he is not as good as Mick Abel, the gap below Abel gives no Thorpe comps. Let’s say the other piece is Cristopher Sanchez. That would have been the Phillies #5 and #6 starting pitchers on the depth chart. So on top of paying Juan Soto, the Phillies would be looking for another starting pitcher at probably $10-$15M a year to just replace Sanchez. If they had depth, like say Griff McGarry had a good year and was still regarded as a top prospect, then you can entertain these conversations more.

How they got here is largely the same story it has always been, player acquisition and development. The Phillies have got two extra players outside the first round in 2018 and used them in trades (Matt Vierling and Logan O’Hoppe), but have gotten really no contributors after the first round in 2019 or 2020, and the 2015-2017 drafts have left no contributors or prospect depth. The Phillies have improved on development, and you can see some of this in low minors, particularly pitching, and they are filling more edges of the roster internally. However, their top prospects entering next year will be their last 4 first round picks, their top international signing from 2023, and their one breakout prospect, a major league level reliever. If there is a problem with the offseason, it is one where seeds were sown years ago, and the Phillies front office has largely acted rationally in regards to know that their organizational prospect depth is weak, opting to lean into signings rather than trades and increasing the payroll to near the 3rd tax threshold. That is likely the route they will continue until they can start building the infrastructure below to support the major league roster.