Another season, and a Spring Training full of small sample sizes. Here are just some thoughts over the first half of Spring Training and WBC.
Notes and Thoughts
- After a great first at bat, it hasn’t been a great spring for Justin Crawford at the plate. He is not whiffing at a high rate, but he is hitting the ball into the ground without drawing walks like he was in AAA. Outside of losing a ball in the sun, his defense has looked better than it did in the minors. In the end, this is probably the expectation for 2026 for Crawford, flashes of brilliance, a bunch of struggles, and probably fine results in the end.
- There is a lot of debate about Andrew Painter because his fastball has note been as dynamic as it once did. He has barely pitched (5 very efficient innings), but has mixed 6 different pitches and looks like at minimum a major league pitcher. Rather than a 2 pitch phenom, there is a chance we see Painter break in as a guy with a large toolbox who then works himself better from there. It also is early March and he is pitching like a veteran in Spring Training and not a guy going all out.
- Aroon Escobar has looked overwhelmed outside of a few moments. He spent almost all of last year in A-ball, and while you want to see a leap it shouldn’t be the expectation.
- After struggling in major league spring training, Dante Nori has been on fire with Team Italy (.714/.778/1.714 with two home runs). There is some definite pause about who he hit those off of, and neither was particularly scorched. He has looked fine this spring, not enough to make a big shift of opinion.
- It has been 10 PAs, but Kehden Hettiger has not looked like a guy making a jump from a cameo in AA. He has looked fine behind the plate and has turned on some pitches. He has swung and missed quite a bit, but he is establishing himself as the Phillies best catching prospect.
- Alex McFarlane has shown his control problems a couple of times this spring, but has also looked like a guy who could arrive very quickly in the majors. He was sitting 97-99 in his last outing, showing a 4-seam fastball and sinker. He has added a sweeper to his previously plus slider, and even mixed in a splitter. He needs more polish, but he looks electric.
- Even though he is still built more like a high school freshman, Jean Cabrera has pitched like a veteran. His fastballs have been 93-95 and he works in the sweeper and cutter, with the changeup being the weapon he leans on when he needs a whiff. He is in a real competition to be the Phillies #6 starter, and he might not be there to start the year, but he is positioning himself well to be in that driver’s seat come summer.
- If there has been a bullpen breakout, it has been Seth Johnson. Given roster status, it is unlikely he makes the MLB team, and his command and ability to miss bats have wavered this spring. However, he is averaging 98 mph and routinely sitting 99, and has added a larger arsenal to make himself more of a complete pitcher. He is throwing a sinker, and has fully scrapped his curveball and replaced it with a sweeper. There is work to be done, but he will be up at some point this year.
- I was wrong about Yoniel Curet. I ranked him highly because I believed in the arm strength and thought the Phillies could mold something. He has been a complete mess and the Phillies are going to need to essentially rebuild him in AAA for him to be anything.
- Bryan Rincon has put a charge into a couple of balls this spring like he has never done before, which has raised some eyebrows.
- In just a couple of call up appearances Chuck King has been very appealing as a relief prospect with his sinker sitting north of 96 mph. It is still TBD if he will start or relieve to open the minor league season.
- Carson DeMartini has a home run, but he has been swinging and missing at a high rate when he gets into games.
- It can be heard to tell what Andrew Walling is throwing based on the tracking data, but he has added a sinker to an arsenal that previously had everything moving glove side.
- Aaron Combs is throwing harder, which is interesting as he presumably moves into a bullpen role.
- Jaydenn Estanista has not been good for the Phillies or Netherlands this spring.
- Velocity is still down for Daniel Harper, who is moving more towards afterthought after his injury last season.
- Felix Reyes has made contact, but has swung a lot, and only occasionally crushed the ball. All in all, a very Felix Reyes spring.
- The good news is that Keaton Anthony has gotten a game in the outfield, the bad news is he ahs more games in LF than hits, and is not hitting the ball particularly hard.
Injuries and Transactions
- The lack of clarity on Aidan Miller’s back injury is concerning, as is the reoccurrence. Him missing time this spring is a bummer more than a real setback, but if he misses any serious amount of regular season time that is a concern.
- Gabriel Rincones Jr. missing Spring Training doesn’t really hurt the Phillies out of the start, but it is a decent showcase that he has missed. It is also concerning, like Miller, that he hasn’t progressed forward as the spring has moved on.
Matt, love reading all these posts and your rankings. Do you have like a “just missed” the top 50 like you have in years past?
Yes, but I keep not completing it. More of a notes on a bunch of guys sort of thing.
Perfect! Looking forward to it.