Phillies Deadline Moves Tip Hand On Future Team Construction

The Phillies spent the offseason building a team that many joked was made entirely of DHs. It was on top of a team that was already filled with large contracts, and one that after the moves still had some massive holes going forward. To be a sustainable contender going forward, the Phillies were going to need to find a path forward that involved some youth and some cheap contracts.

At the core of the Phillies are five massive contracts with Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber making a combined about $110M. None of their contracts are mega by current mega standards, but they run through at least 2024 (Wheeler in 24, Realmuto and Schwarber in 25, Castellanos in 26, and Harper in 31). The problem here is that Schwarber, Castellanos, and Harper lock up LF/RF/DH with a move to 1B as an outside possibility.

Then there is Aaron Nola, who has a reasonable club option for 2023, and will likely look for a massive pay jump after that. For now we can assume the Phillies will likely either need to pay him or pay someone to be like him. That is a lot of money tied up for a lot of years, before getting into the concept of adding a big free agent.

The “good” news is the Phillies have a decent chunk of money coming off the books after this offseason with Jean Segura, Didi Gregorius, Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin, Brad Hand, Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia, and now Noah Syndergaard and David Robertson, all hitting free agency. Good goes in air quotes because that means the Phillies will need to fill their spots and that is half a bullpen, two starting pitcher spots, and a middle infield all gone. It is reasonable to assume that Bryson Stott will play one of the middle infield positions, so that is one thing solved. The Phillies were in the market for a controlled pitcher (in this case arb so contract suppressed), but ultimately did not make a move due to the cost, more on that later.

I do want to deal with the corner infield position before going forward. Rhys Hoskins has historically been one of the Phillies best hitters (albeit very streaky) and has one more year of arbitration left. Alec Bohm has been a bright spot the last month+, playing passable defense and third base and just lining the ball all over the field. Theoretically you could move on from Hoskins (likely getting very little in return) and either get a cheaper first baseman or move Bohm to first. Given Bohm’s advancement, they have the option to play it out for another year and see how both players do before making a large decision.

So the two other holes here are center field and starting pitcher. This is where the Phillies most controversial move comes into play, Logan O’Hoppe for Brandon Marsh. The Phillies have spent a lot of time hunting in the center field market. The market itself has been very thin, populated by highly flawed players (the Herrera types), players who shouldn’t play center field (Starling Marte), and good players on bad teams (Reynolds and Mullins). The good players on bad teams have been rumored to cost multiple first born children or not available at all. In the end the Phillies decided to make a bold move in acquiring Marsh. In Marsh (and Matt Vierling) the Phillies have at minimum created a passable center field situation for cheap.

The starting pitching situation is where this gets fun. Matt Gelb said it on the Phillies Therapy podcast this week, Dave Dombrowski said veiled in the last two weeks, and the other whispers are saying it as well, but the Phillies held on to Painter, Abel, and McGarry because they view them as helping the 2023 Phillies. It is unreasonable to expect that all three will be ready off the start, but there is a chance that McGarry has a real chance win a job out of spring training. The Phillies probably still need to bring in or back another veteran starting pitcher, probably on a 1 year deal. However, saving a chunk of money on that second spot would be a large boon for the budget.

It isn’t just the big spots where the Phillies have added cheapness. Through a combination of intentional moves and some luck the Phillies have acquired Edmundo Sosa, Nick Nelson, Garrett Stubbs, and Andrew Bellatti who all have 5 more years of control and have not yet reached arbitration. None of those guys are impactful players right now, but they all are depth they won’t need to pay for.

So all this ramble leads to a way too early look at the 2023 Phillies team heading into the offseason that looks like.

• C – Realmuto
• 1B – Hoskins
• 2B – Stott/FA
• SS – Stott/FA
• 3B – Bohm
• LF – Schwarber
• CF – Marsh/Vierling
• RF – Harper
• DH – Castellanos
• Bench – Marsh/Vierling, Stubbs, Sosa, ?
• Rotation – Wheeler/Nola/Suarez/FA/Internal?
• Bullpen – Dominguez/Alvarado/Bellatti/Brogdon/Nelson/?/?/?

Obviously the Phillies will need to spend on a starting pitcher and some bullpen arms, but with the money coming off the books and potentially cheap rotation upgrades coming, there is one glaring spot on the roster open. It is too early to speculate too much on an offseason, but the Phillies pivot to Marsh and keeping their starting pitching prospects is turn directly towards what should be a very strong middle infield, particularly shortstop market.