Not every prospect in the minors is destined to be an impact contributor to a major league team. It is really easy to see these role players, whether they are bench hitters, middle relievers, or back end starters, as those with higher ceilings that did not meet those heights. Not every player in this group falls into another group, but many do, and that is players that lack that high ceiling but clearly have the abilities to be a major league contributor. They just have some flaws or distance to achieving that role that makes them just too risky to trust them to reach it. There are also within this group some players with really solid ceilings, but due to injury or poor performance they are just so far away from that goal that they really need a strong 2024 season to just get back on the path, let alone get further down the road.
All ages are as of opening day (March 28)
33. Andrew Walling, LHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 220lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 26 | 0 | 6-1 | 39.0 | 3.23 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 15.3% | 27.1% |
| JS (A+) | 14 | 0 | 2-2 | 16.2 | 3.24 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 4.9% | 44.3% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Walling only made it to Jersey Shore in 2023, and while his control was much better there, he still walked 6 per 9 in Clearwater. His stuff is major league caliber, but it isn’t overwhelming enough where results at each level won’t matter.
Summary: The Phillies signed Walling as an undrafted free agent out of the Draft League in 2022. He had barely pitched in college at all due to injuries, ineffectiveness, and the COVID shutdown. He showed a live arm last year, with his fastball sitting about 94 and mixing in a hard slider/cutter. In 2023, his fastball ticked up slightly, and he mostly sits 93 to 95 and can get up to 97. It is a fairly vertical fastball, but it doesn’t have elite levels of ride, and isn’t a big bat misser (22% whiff rate in Clearwater). The big change for Walling came in his offspeed stuff. His slider fully became a cutter that will sit mostly in the high 80s. He gets a decent number of swings and misses on it, but even more than his fastball, it is the pitch he throws for strikes. His bat misser is a low to mid 80s sweeper, a new pitch to his arsenal, replacing a big loopy curve he would throw rarely. The sweeper has about 10 inches more horizontal break than his cutter and just a little more drop, and like the cutter plays off his fastball up in the zone well. Over the course of the season Walling became more comfortable throwing the sweeper, with it surpassing the cutter in usage. Overall, Walling has the stuff to pitch out of a major league bullpen, though probably not late innings. He was absolutely devastating to lefties (.083/.243/.117) and given his arsenal, he is likely to always have some platoon proclivities, but righties didn’t completely crush him. His control was shaky with Clearwater, but not with Jersey Shore, and he will need to continue that trend to progress through the system.
2024 Outlook: Walling pitched a solid 16.2 innings with Jersey Shore, and probably will compete for a spot in Reading to open the year. If not, he should get there pretty quickly if he carries over his 2023 success.
ETA: 2025|
Previous Rank: UR
34. Hendry Mendez, OF
Age: 20
Acquired: Traded by the Brewers to the Philadelphia Phillies with Robert Moore for Oliver Dunn on November 14, 2023
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 175lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| MIL (AZL) | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | .600 | .600 | .800 |
| WIS (A+) | 62 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 8.9% | 15.6% | .236 | .307 | .326 |
| SUR (AFL) | 11 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 14.0% | 23.3% | .216 | .326 | .297 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Mendez has moved to an outfield corner which puts pressure on his bat. His stats do not indicate his bat will be up to the task, which leaves his potential more dependent on past projection and his physicality.
Summary: The Brewers signed Mendez for $800,000 when the 2021 signing period opened, and he had a great debut in both the DSL and Arizona Complex League. However, in both 2022 and 2023 his swing started to show deficiencies in quality of contact generated. Mendez has the physicality to hit for power, but his swing leads to an enormous amount of ground ball contact (over 60% the last two seasons). Historically, Mendez has had a solid approach and low swing and miss, so if the Phillies can rework his swing there is a chance he can tap into those changes. At one point, Mendez was thought to be a center fielder, but he is now firmly a corner outfielder and will likely see time in both corners going forward.
2024 Outlook: Mendez played all of last season at high A in the Brewers system, but given his struggles, he likely goes to Jersey Shore to open the 2024 season. The big thing will be if the Phillies make swing changes and if they are able to get Mendez to square up the ball more consistently.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
35. Tommy McCollum, RHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Phillies in 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 260lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 34 | 0 | 0-0 | 35.0 | 2.31 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 16.1% | 39.2% |
| REA (AA) | 10 | 0 | 1-0 | 9.1 | 3.86 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 21.4% | 26.2% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – McCollum struggled with his control with Jersey Shore and more so with Reading. His splitter gives him a major league pitch, but his fastball is not good enough to give him success without better command.
Summary: McCollum had a breakout 2022 cut short by an injury, and his 2023 season was more up and down. McCollum is a big righty who has struggled to repeat his delivery and command his pitches. McCollum has a fairly high release point and good extension which makes his pitches difficult to pick up. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s, bumping up to 94-96 when he is at his best. His best pitch is a high 80s splitter that is his primary bat misser thanks to good deception and drop. He has been working on adding a cutter or slider that gives him a glove side weapon. Unsurprisingly for a splitter heavy pitcher in the low minors, McCollum dominated left handed batters who hit just .053/.260/.053 off of him. Given the velocity and splitter, it is hard to not see some shades of Hector Neris in McCollum, but he will need to actually consistently harness his splitter to hit that sort of ceiling.
2024 Outlook: McCollum should return to Reading where he can put himself on the Rule 5 protect radar for after the season and into the Phillies mix of right handed relief depth.|
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 32
36. Micah Ottenbreit, RHP
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 190lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 2.1 | 11.57 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 15.4% | 0.0% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Ottenbreit was drafted in 2021 and has pitched 14 innings since then and had major surgery in the middle of it. It would be easy to knock his ceiling down or say he is probably a reliever, but we really don’t know, so I am holding him at the previous projection and saying his risk is probably higher than any player in the system.
Summary: Ottenbreit was a raw pitcher when the Phillies took him out of a Michigan high school in 2021. He then pitched in two games in 2022 before having to have Tommy John surgery, and then two games in 2023 before having a setback. According to Steve Potter, he was throwing bullpens late in the fall, so he appears to be healthy heading into the offseason. Ottenbreit had projection coming out of the draft, and it is unsurprising that he had some velocity in his brief appearance in 2023, sitting 92-94 in his second appearance. The pitch has a good spin rate, but I am going to hold off on movement judgment until I have more than a few pitches to work off of. He has a big, high spin (2800-2900 RPM this season) curveball in the low 80s that will likely be his primary weapon. He also throws a changeup. He previously struggled with control based on delivery inconsistencies, and we will need to wait until he is more removed from surgery before making any big judgments. After essentially missing the last two seasons, the big thing for Ottenbreit will be staying healthy and pitching innings. He still has the upside to be one of the better pitching prospects in the organization if he can be healthy and get back on track.
2024 Outlook: Ottenbreit was supposedly healthy by the end of the year, but given his lack of time on the mound the last two years, it is likely his innings will be capped in 2024. He should return to Clearwater where the goal will be to throw healthy innings.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 27
37. Mavis Graves, LHP
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’6” 205lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 11 | 11 | 0-4 | 34.0 | 7.68 | 9.3 | 1.1 | 17.8% | 27.6% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Graves has a starter’s arsenal, but does not have the control or consistency to be anywhere near that role. He is young enough that he has time to grow into it, but he is a long way off.
Summary: Graves was a project when the Phillies took him in the 7th round of the 2022 draft, and he is still very much a project now. He is long and lanky and struggles to repeat his delivery. His velocity has increased a little bit, sitting 88 to 93, and touching up to 94. It is a high spin pitch (2400-2500 RPM), but has sinker movement as opposed to bat missing rise. He has a pair of breaking balls in a similar velocity range. His slider is 79-81 mph and more vertically oriented, sitting about 2700-2800 RPM. It blends into his sweeping curveball that is more in the 77-79 mph range and will peak closer to 2900 RPM. He also has a changeup in the 82-84 mph range that he kills the spin on well. He does miss some bats, but his command and control lag due to his size, and he struggles repeating his delivery. He has room to add strength and velocity, and the breaking balls show the promise to be bat-missing weapons if he can find consistency. It was always going to take time for him, and his 2023 season doesn’t change that.
2024 Outlook: Unless he has a great spring, Graves might start the season in Extended Spring Training, and unless he regresses he probably sees the bulk of his time with the Threshers.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 30
38. Jaydenn Estanista, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on November 8, 2019
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 180lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| CLW (A-) | 13 | 1 | 2-0 | 24.1 | 8.51 | 9.8 | 1.1 | 21.8% | 22.6% |
Role: Probably a Reliever
Risk: Extreme – After his age 21 season there are still a lot of questions about what Estanista is as a pitcher and even what pitches he throws. He is still largely a lump of clay to be formed into something.
Summary: Estanista looked like a breakout candidate coming into 2023. He is a lanky and projectable right handed pitcher, and he is still relatively new to pitching. However, his 2023 season was a disaster. He struggled to throw strikes, and all of his pitches were inconsistent pitch to pitch. He also missed 2 months due to injury and was not part of the Threshers end of season push even once he was back. The selling point on Estanista is the four seam fastball. This year there were inconsistencies, but when on, it sits 93 to 96 with great ride and it should miss bats in the long term when he can throw it more consistently up in the zone. He had a slider move through various shapes in the cutter/gyro range and velocity bands in the 80s. Late in the season he began sparingly throwing a mid 70s huge curveball. He struggled to throw it for strikes, but the sample size was tiny. Before his injury he tinkered with a splitter. His chances of being a starting pitcher are rapidly closing, and he will actually need to find a usable secondary pitch and a bunch of fastball command to make it in the bullpen. He still is raw and has good upside, he has just moved from a breakout prospect to a reclamation project to try and get on the right path.
2024 Outlook: Estanista will return to Clearwater where he might be in a multi inning relief role to get work and figure out which direction things will go.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 14