I will preface all of this by saying I am not a scout and I am very much not an amateur player scout. What is about to follow comes from talking to people, and reading the internet. It is likely to not contain much actual scouting information, and given the misinformation and lack of information around the Phillies 1st round pick, very little actual projection. The Phillies have been linked with every player imaginable at pick #14 because of how volatile (and frankly kind of bad) this year’s draft is. So let’s leave scouting for tonight after the pick is announced and instead take this from a logic puzzle side. There are 13 picks to be made before the Phillies pick, who could be there and who could be gone?
Definitely Will Be Gone by 14: Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, J.J. Bleday, Riley Greene, Nick Lodolo, C.J. Abrams
Abrams is supposedly slipping, but he isn’t slipping this much.
If They Fall to 14 You Raise an Eyebrow: Alek Manoah, Hunter Bishop
Manoah is probably the second best pitcher in the draft. Bishop fell to the Phillies Law’s mock earlier today, but it feels like that scenario is unlikely to happen.
That is 9 names and 13 picks ahead of the Phillies, so now onto the meat of this.
Someone is Going to be There: Jackson Rutledge, Shae Langeliers, Bryson Stott, Josh Jung, Corbin Carroll, Zack Thompson
It feels like Rutledge and Stott have spots to go ahead of 14, as does Langeliers. All three probably have their slide end with the Phillies. Jung isn’t my favorite prospect here as he feels very similar to Alec Bohm from last year, but he is being linked heavily as high Texas at #8 and that definitely knocks one of the other players down. Carroll has been falling past the Phillies a couple of times in drafts and it feels like the Phillies may not want to go with a player very similar to Mickey Moniak out of the draft, but the value may be too good at #14. Thompson is a good college arm in a draft lacking in them and has been heavily linked to the Mets at #12.
The Spoilers to Go Top 13: ,Keoni Cavaco, George Kirby, Brett Baty
Kirby has mid rotation upside in a draft with limited pitching, but without big school pedigree as some of the arms above him. Cavaco is a HS 3B who has been climbing quickly and may be in play at #13, but does not feel like he is on the Phillies radar. Baty is another HS 3B that some teams love, but the Phillies do not appear to be one of them.
Realistically 2 of Thompson, Rutledge, Langeliers, Stott, Jung, and Carroll will be available at the Phillies pick. Unless they love George Kirby it feels like it is one of those players. If the Phillies want to go off this board, then HS RHP Matthew Allan has the talent to go at 14 and it wouldn’t be a reach. The Phillies have been linked to HS SS Gunnar Henderson, but going overslot with no second round pick, really requires having someone good, but not great, with signability issues fall that you then overpay. Is it worth going low at pick #14 to get the 2019 version of Dominic Pipkin, probably not, unless the guy you go underslot for you think is the #14 guy.