Let’s Talk About the 2019 Phillies

The final month+ of the 2018 Phillies system is going to hurt for a while. They squandered a bunch of chances due to poor play, poor management, exhaustion, and injuries. In the end they are going to beat their projections. It will feel like a Pyrrhic victory, because there will always be a bad taste of what could have been. We know that the offseason is going to bring big changes on the trade and free agent front, so taking this end mess that is the 2018 Phillies and trying to give an opening day lineup is kind of silly. Instead we can take an early look at the end and see what pieces actually matter when we yell at them for losing over these final 10 games.

The entire 40 man roster is in the majors which makes looking at the pieces for next year easy. So let’s take that 40 man roster and slice it 4 ways into MLB Locks, MiLB Locks, Bubble, and Free Agents. This is all before thinking about trades and future signings (we will get to that later).

Free Agents: Adrubel Cabrera, Wilson Ramos, Jose Bautista, Pedro Florimon, Aaron Loup

Bubble: Aaron Altherr, Dylan Cozens, Justin Bour, Luis Garcia, Adam Morgan, Luis Avilan, Andrew Knapp, Mitch Walding, Jerad Eickhoff, Austin Davis, Yacksel Rios

MiLB Locks: Enyel De Los Santos, Drew Anderson, Ranger Suarez

MLB Locks: Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn, Aaron Nola, Nick Pivetta, Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, Victor Arano, Tommy Hunter, Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Pat Neshek, J.P. Crawford, Edubray Ramos

Now let’s pivot those MLB locks into a roster

C: Jorge Alfaro
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Cesar Hernandez
SS: J.P. Crawford
3B: Maikel Franco
LF: Rhys Hoskins
CF: Odubel Herrera
RF: Nick Williams
Bench: Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn

Rotation: Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin
Bullpen: Victor Arano, Tommy Hunter, Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Pat Neshek, Edubray Ramos

And everything comes full circle because this is essentially the group they opened 2018 with. All the left handed relievers are in the bubble pile, but they probably keep 2 of them, with Austin Davis possibly ticketed for AAA. Yacksel Rios has probably shown enough promise. There is no long guy here, but between the back three in the rotation and Eickhoff in the bubble pile (for health reasons) there is a way to create one.

So where are the actual holes here? Clearly impact. But it is also clear that impact could be almost anywhere on the roster, with really the only except being first base (trading Santana only to put someone else in that spot makes little sense). It also means the Phillies aren’t pigeonholed into making a specific move. They could move Odubel to make room for Roman Quinn to start everyday, or they could trade Santana, move Hoskins to first and move Herrera to a corner. Scott Kingery fits more naturally at second, so a trade of Cesar Hernandez makes sense, but they could also go with that earlier scenario, and turn Kingery actually into more of a Zobrist type and make sure he can play CF when inevitably the baseball gods decide to break Roman Quinn in a fluke way again. The Phillies don’t even have to trade Santana if they sign say Bryce Harper, instead they can move Williams to the bench, roll with a good bench (also give themselves the flexibility to bump Hoskins down to 1B and Santana to the bench or to 3B in short bursts) and roll with an outfield with more thump. If they go the Machado route, they probably need to trade an infielder, but they have some flexibility as to which one it is. When it comes to catcher, if the Phillies go money elsewhere, they can roll with Alfaro as their primary catcher, but maybe the market on Wilson Ramos collapses and they bring him back.

On the pitching side, the core of the bullpen is intact. Sure there may be injuries, but the second year versions of Dominguez and Arano should be solid, Neshek is good, Tommy Hunter is really a fine middle reliever at this point, and Neris and Ramos will flash dominance. There is room to add a dominant reliever in here, there is also room to kind of roll with things, because you have the option of bumping a starter here. It is clear the Phillies do need some sort of rotation upgrade. Maybe that is a healthy offseason returning Eickhoff to his dominant self, maybe that is a trade, maybe it is a free agent signing. Eflin, Pivetta, and Velasquez all have their warts and the addition of another starter probably bumps someone to the bullpen, where both Pivetta and Velasquez have the potential to be impactful.

If all of this sounds familiar, it is because it is. The Phillies are year older, but they are kind of the same team they were in March. Some players have taken steps forward, some have taken steps back, but it is mostly the same core group. That isn’t good enough to take the division without improvement, and this is where over the last ten games some things matter and some things don’t. In the end, the thing that will determine the success of the next 5 years isn’t going to happen this year, it is all about the move(s) this offseason. The Phillies aren’t doomed, but they aren’t a finished product yet, and we kind of all deep down know that.