The MLB draft kicks off this evening with rounds 1 and 2. The Phillies will be picking at #8 and then again at #45. Last year we had some clue as to who the Phillies would target in the 2nd round, this year it has become near useless to speculate, but we do have some hints about the first round.
Most Recent Mock Drafts:
These will be updated as more information rolls in.
- Pavin Smith – Keith Law – June 11
- Pavin Smith – Jonathan Mayo – June 12
- Adam Haseley – Jim Callis – June 12
- Adam Haseley – Baseball America – June 12
- Pavin Smith – Eric Longenhagen – June 12
- Adam Haseley – Perfect Game – June 12
What I Think Will Happen (and what I want to happen):
I think at this point it is safe to say that McKay, Wright, Greene, Gore, and Lewis are not going to fall to the Phillies at 8. Right now everyone has Virginia OF Adam Haseley going to the Diamondbacks at #7. If he falls past there, the general wisdom is that the Phillies will take him. Hasely doesn’t have superstar tools, but he could good and he could be good quick. Most mocks have had the Phillies taking Haseley’s teammate, first baseman Pavin Smith. I have gotten mixed opinions on whether Smith can play the outfield, and the Phillies did work him out in right field this weekend. If Smith can’t play the outfield I find the risk and upside just not there. I wrote last week about the poor track record for college first basemen, and while each prospect is different, I just don’t see anything special to Smith to say he is safer or different than those other players. This isn’t to say Smith is destined to fail, just that the risk is much higher than I would feel comfortable with.
Now all of this could change if teams like the Rays start cutting deals. The Rays seem like they would cut a deal with HS OF Bubba Thompson. Which would cause one of the top 5 to fall. The next deal spot could be Oakland at 6. They could also could go Austin Beck. This sets up a situation I would be happy with. That is UC Irvin 2B/OF Keston Hiura available for an underslot deal. Hiura is interesting because he does have risk, but if he hit like he did this year (.442/.567/.693) while playing second he would be a no doubt Top 10 pick. However, Hiura likely needs Tommy John surgery and might actually be a left fielder or DH, and while he can really hit, his power is not ideal.
I do think it is possible the Phillies turn to a trio of college pitchers in Florida’s Alex Faedo, North Carolina’s J.B. Bukauskas, and Oregon’s David Peterson, especially if one of them goes underslot. Each of those pitchers has different strengths and weaknesses. The Phillies brass saw Bukauskas at his worst, so that will likely play into their decision. In other words I really don’t know what the Phillies will do at 8 until we see how the first few picks go.
Last year the second round was about which HS arm made it through the gauntlet of the comp round to the Phillies’ pick. This year the logic is much more complication. Last year the Phillies were about to save a couple million on Mickey Moniak’s bonus to be able to create a large enough pool of high bonus arms to chose from. This year they aren’t going to be able to offer a $4M bonus and unless they cut a huge deal at 8, they aren’t going to have a ton to play with. I do think they probably go pitcher based on how they have approached other drafts, but I can’t give that any certainty. There are a lot of teams with multiple picks before the Phillies get to #45, so I am not going to name any names right now.
I will be posting constantly over the next three days. Look for recaps from both Jeff and I at the end of each day. The tracker and draft page will be constantly updated, so let’s go have some fun.