Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from New Jersey, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has appeared on Baseball Prospectus, Crashburn Alley, Phuture Phillies, The Good Phight, and TheDynastyGuru.

Arizona Fall League Recap – Pitchers

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I already touched on the two hitters that the Phillies sent to the Arizona Fall League.  The Phillies sent 5 pitchers to the AFL, and while they lack the potential impact of Roman Quinn, they are very interesting group to think about.  They included 3 AA relievers in Nefi Ogando, Colton Murray, and Ryan O’Sullivan, as well as Hi-A left handed starting pitcher, turned reliever, Ethan Stewart, and then former top prospect and shoulder surgery victim Adam Morgan.

Adam Morgan:

6 G 16.1 IP 6.61 ERA 26 H 17 R 12 ER 3 BB 11 K

I ranked Morgan as the #2 prospect in the Phillies system after the 2012 season.  At the time Morgan sported a 90-92 mph fastball that he could run up to 94, pairing that with a plus slider, a changeup with plus potential, and an average curveball.  However after two years of shoulder injuries and surgery, Morgan returned to the mound in the AFL with only 2 starts in instructs under his belt.  Morgan was very hittable in the AFL, the fastball was normally 86-88 touching 89 and in one start he was 87-89 and reportedly getting as high as 92.  He was almost exclusively fastball-changeup with limited sliders.  It was good to see Morgan on a mound again, but we will have to see what the stuff looks like in the spring before knowing what he will be going forward.

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Looking to Add Writers

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I started this blog back in June because I had a different vision for a prospect site.  I wanted a place that would provide reference resources on as many players in the Phillies system as I could get information on and would be able to provide information and analysis that wasn’t just a regurgitation of … Read more

Arizona Fall League Recap – Hitters

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This year the Phillies only sent two hitters the Arizona Fall League.  The first was former second round pick in the 2011 draft, Clearwater CF, Roman Quinn and the other was AA catcher Logan Moore.  Quinn came with much bigger expectations and played in 24 of Scottsdale’s 32 games (including missing time due to an injury scare), Moore was more roster filler and a back up, getting into only 12 games.

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Jesse Biddle and Shane Watson News From Josh Norris (Baseball America)

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Since this likely to get buried wherever tweets go to die here are some quick Phillies pitching updates from Baseball America’s Josh Norris (who writes up the Phillies Top 30 among many other things). Just spoke to Joe Jordan for 90 minutes. One bit of news: Shane Watson will have another shoulder surgery. #Phillies — … Read more

Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 4 – Cole Hamels Trade Scenarios

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The logical last piece of this series of posts was to talk about what an actual Cole Hamels trade would look like.  If you have not read parts 1-3 (Surplus Value, Valuing Prospects, and The Value of Hamels) I strongly advise you to go back and read them because this will be a continuation of the topics discussed in those pieces.  I am going to explore the potential outcomes for a Cole Hamels trade looking at surplus value, how fans value Hamels in a trade, what his value is on the field, and how the Phillies value Hamels in a trade.

The teams that definitely have the money and prospects to be in on Hamels are the Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers.  On the fringes the Pirates, Royals, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays all have the resources to make a deal happen.  There are many factors to a Hamels trade, from his salary, to the “surplus value” he will return, to the rarity of such a pitcher being available on the market.  All of these factors go to together, and while some may be objective, the end result will be very subjective.

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Dylan Cozens and the Deception of MiLB Splits

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As minor league fans we grasp for hope and improvement in minor league players, and we often grasp on to little pieces of information in an effort to make sense of the chaos.  This ranges from singular scouting reports from a singular person on a singular day or series* to a set of splits on a stats page.  We are just looking for narrative and meaning.  The player that has risen to the top of the narrative pile is Phillies Low-A right fielder Dylan Cozens.

*This is the nature of scouting and why multiple looks and context are important parts of the entire evaluation process.

The narrative coming out of the season was that Cozens built on first half successes into an outstanding second half, and from the surface if we take the triple slash line that looks fairly accurate.

BA OBP SLG
1st Half 0.229 0.282 0.403
2nd Half 0.267 0.324 0.426

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The Past Week 11-7-2014

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The Past Week: Baseball Prospect Top 10 Phillies Prospect List (my reaction) Phillies MiLB Free Agents – Phillies Minor Thoughts Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 3 – The Value of Hamels – Phillies Minor Thoughts (Pt 1 and Pt 2) Offseason Mailbag #1 – Phillies Minor Thoughts Roman Quinn in the AFL (Jordan Gorosh, Ethan Purser, Todd Gold) – … Read more

Phillies MiLB Free Agents

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Baseball America put out their comprehensive list of minor league free agents today.  The Phillies have a decent amount of players up for free agency.  For the most part players that reach minor league free agency have little in the way of ceiling left.  Occasionally some guys slip through with a ceiling of being a contributor … Read more