I have heard a lot lately about how bad the Phillies farm system is, and frankly it bugs the crap out of me, so you all get to join me on the exploration process. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Fangraphs have put out varying amounts of lists, so we are going to compare them to the Phillies list. If not lists exist for an org, we will go to the mlb.com lists, but keep in mind they have not been updated.
So lets start with the Phillies system and set our baseline (keeping in mind neither Eflin or Windle is listed but the consensus is that they are Top 10 prospects.
| Rank | Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | Fangraphs |
| 1 | J.P. Crawford | J.P. Crawford | J.P. Crawford |
| 2 | Aaron Nola | Aaron Nola | Maikel Franco |
| 3 | Maikel Franco | Maikel Franco | Aaron Nola |
| 4 | Roman Quinn | Yoel Mecias | Matt Imhof |
| 5 | Carlos Tocci | Jesse Biddle | Jesse Biddle |
| 6 | Aaron Brown | Deivi Grullon | Yoel Mecias |
| 7 | Matt Imhof | Kelly Dugan | Deivi Grullon |
| 8 | Jesmuel Valentin | Carlos Tocci | Roman Quinn |
| 9 | Yoel Mecias | Elniery Garcia | Dylan Cozens |
| 10 | Franklyn Kilome | Dylan Cozens | Kelly Dugan |
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Now that we have our baseline, lets eliminate some team from our experiment, because their systems are clearly better than the Phillies. Those teams being the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Twins, Astros, Rangers, Mets, Pirates,Cubs, and Rockies, which puts our peak ranking at #11. As we move forward, you can play along and put an either up or down next two a system to see where they would rank for you and we will get to that at the end.
Cincinnati Reds:
Keep in mind the Reds acquired Anthony DeSclafani and Jonathan Crawford in trades during the winter meetings.
| Rank | Baseball Prospectus | Fangraphs |
| 1 | Robert Stephenson | Robert Stephenson |
| 2 | Jesse Winker | Michael Lorenzen |
| 3 | Michael Lorenzen | Jesse Winker |
| 4 | Yorman Rodriguez | Rasiel Iglesias |
| 5 | Nick Howard | Nick Howards |
| 6 | Alex Blandino | Alex Blandino |
| 7 | Ben Lively | Phil Ervin |
| 8 | Nick Travieso | Nick Travieso |
| 9 | Phil Ervin | Yorman Rodriguez |
| 10 | Gavin LaValley | Aristides Aquino |
St. Louis Cardinals:
| Rank | Baseball Prospectus |
| 1 | Stephen Piscotty |
| 2 | Marco Gonzales |
| 3 | Alexander Reyes |
| 4 | Jack Flaherty |
| 5 | Rob Kaminsky |
| 6 | Charlie Tilson |
| 7 | Tim Cooney |
| 8 | Sam Tuivailala |
| 9 | Luke Weaver |
| 10 | Carson Kelly |
San Diego Padres:
| Rank | MLB.com |
| 1 | Austin Hedges |
| 2 | Matthew Wisler |
| 3 | Max Fried |
| 4 | Hunter Renfroe |
| 5 | Trea Turner |
| 6 | Rymer Liriano |
| 7 | Casey Kelly |
| 8 | Joe Ross |
| 9 | Jose Rondon |
| 10 | Taylor Lindsey |
Los Angeles Dodgers:
| Rank | MLB.com |
| 1 | Corey Seager |
| 2 | Julio Urias |
| 3 | Joc Pederson |
| 4 | Grant Holmes |
| 5 | Chris Anderson |
| 6 | Zach Lee |
| 7 | Chris Reed |
| 8 | Scott Schebler |
| 9 | Alex Verduge |
| 10 | Jose De Leon |
Baltimore Orioles:
| Rank | Baseball Prospectus | Baseball America |
| 1 | Dylan Bundy | Dylan Bundy |
| 2 | Hunter Harvey | Hunter Harvey |
| 3 | Chance Cisco | Christian Walker |
| 4 | Christian Walker | Chance Cisco |
| 5 | Josh Hart | Dariel Alvarez |
| 6 | Zach Davies | Zach Davies |
| 7 | Mike Wright | Tim Berry |
| 8 | Tim Berry | Mike Wright |
| 9 | Stephen Tarpley | Mike Yastrzemski |
| 10 | Mike Yastrzemski | Jomar Reyes |
Tampa Bay Rays:
| Rank | Baseball Prospectus | Baseball America |
| 1 | Willy Adames | Willy Adames |
| 2 | Justin O’Connor | Alex Colome |
| 3 | Alex Colome | Justin O’Connor |
| 4 | Adrian Rondon | Adrian Rondon |
| 5 | Brent Honeywell | Nate Karns |
| 6 | Nate Karns | Mickie Mahtook |
| 7 | Taylor Guerrieri | Ryan Brett |
| 8 | Casey Gillaspie | Brent Honeywell |
| 9 | Justin Williams | Blake Snell |
| 10 | Blake Snell | Casey Gillaspie |
Detroit Tigers:
| Rank | Baseball America |
| 1 | |
| 2 | Steven Moya |
| 3 | Buck Farmer |
| 4 | Derek Hill |
| 5 | |
| 6 | Kevin Ziomek |
| 7 | |
| 8 | Hernan Perez |
| 9 | James McCann |
| 10 | Tyler Collins |
Cleveland Indians:
| Rank | Baseball America |
| 1 | Francisco Lindor |
| 2 | Bradley Zimmer |
| 3 | Clint Frazier |
| 4 | Justus Sheffield |
| 5 | Mike Papi |
| 6 | Tyler Naquin |
| 7 | Francisco Mejia |
| 8 | Erik Gonzalez |
| 9 | Bobby Bradley |
| 10 | Cody Anderson |
Chicago White Sox:
| Rank | Baseball America | Fangraphs |
| 1 | Carlos Rodon | Carlos Rodon |
| 2 | Tim Anderson | Tim Anderson |
| 3 | Spencer Adams | Francellis Montas |
| 4 | Micah Johnson | Spencer Adams |
| 5 | Francellis Montas | Tyler Danish |
| 6 | Micker Adolfo | Trey Michalczewski |
| 7 | Tyler Danish | Micah Johnson |
| 8 | Trey Michalczewski | Courtney Hawkins |
| 9 | Courtney Hawkins | Micker Adolfo |
| 10 | Trayce Thompson |
Seattle Mariners:
| Rank | Baseball America |
| 1 | Alex Jackson |
| 2 | D.J. Peterson |
| 3 | Ketel Marte |
| 4 | Patrick Kivlehan |
| 5 | Austin Wilson |
| 6 | Edwin Diaz |
| 7 | Gabby Guerrero |
| 8 | Luiz Gohara |
| 9 | Ryan Yarbrough |
| 10 | Carson Smith |
Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels added LHP Andrew Heaney via trade from the Dodgers
| Rank | Baseball America |
| 1 | Sean Newcomb |
| 2 | Ricardo Sanchez |
| 3 | Cam Bedrosian |
| 4 | Chris Ellis |
| 5 | Joe Gatto |
| 6 | Victor Alcantara |
| 7 | |
| 8 | Alex Yarbrough |
| 9 | Nick Tropeano |
| 10 | Kyle McGowin |
Oakland Athletics:
| Rank | Baseball America |
| 1 | Daniel Robertson |
| 2 | Franklin Barreto |
| 3 | Matt Olson |
| 4 | Matt Chapman |
| 5 | Renato Nunez |
| 6 | Kendall Graveman |
| 7 | Sean Nolin |
| 8 | Dillon Overton |
| 9 | Raul Alcantara |
| 10 | Chad Pinder |
Atlanta Braves:
| Rank | Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus |
| 1 | Jose Peraza | Lucas Sims |
| 2 | Lucas Sims | Jose Peraza |
| 3 | Christian Bethancourt | Christian Bethancourt |
| 4 | Jason Hursh | Braxton Davidson |
| 5 | Ozhaino Albies | Garrett Fulenchek |
| 6 | Braxton Davidson | Ozhaino Albies |
| 7 | Tyrell Jenkins | Alec Grosser |
| 8 | Johan Camargo | Kyle Kubitza |
| 9 | Garrett Fulenchek | J.R. Graham |
| 10 | Kyle Kubitza | Mauricio Cabrera |
Miami Marlins:
The BP list was released before the Winter Meetings, and the BA list was released after the meetings.
| Rank | Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus |
| 1 | Tyler Kolek | Andrew Heaney |
| 2 | J.T. Realmuto | Tyler Kolek |
| 3 | Justin Nicolino | J.T. Realmuto |
| 4 | Jose Urena | Trevor Williams |
| 5 | Avery Romero | Jose Urena |
| 6 | Domingo German | Anthony DeSclafani |
| 7 | Isael Soto | Avery Romero |
| 8 | Trevor Williams | Justin Nicolino |
| 9 | Brian Anderson | Nick Wittgren |
| 10 | Jarlin Garcia | Michael Mader |
San Francisco Giants:
| Rank | MLB.com |
| 1 | Kyle Crick |
| 2 | Tyler Beede |
| 3 | Andrew Susac |
| 4 | Adalberto Mejia |
| 5 | Keury Mella |
| 6 | Ty Blach |
| 7 | Clayton Blackburn |
| 8 | Chris Stratton |
| 9 | Aramis Garcia |
| 10 | Steven Okert |
Milwaukee Brewers:
| Rank | Baseball Prospectus |
| 1 | Orlando Arcia |
| 2 | Tyrone Taylor |
| 3 | Devin Williams |
| 4 | Taylor Williams |
| 5 | Monte Harrison |
| 6 | Gilbert Lara |
| 7 | Jorge Lopez |
| 8 | Tyler Wagner |
| 9 | Kodi Medeiros |
| 10 | Miguel Diaz |
Arizona Diamondbacks
You can choose to either include or exclude Yasmany Tomas, it is up to you.
| Rank | Baseball Prospectus | Fangraphs |
| 1 | Archie Bradley | Archie Bradley |
| 2 | Braden Shipley | Braden Shipley |
| 3 | Aaron Blair | Aaron Blair |
| 4 | Touki Toussaint | Brandon Drury |
| 5 | Brandon Drury | Touki Toussaint |
| 6 | Jake Lamb | Jake Lamb |
| 7 | Jimmie Sherfy | Nick Ahmed |
| 8 | Sergio Alcantara | |
| 9 | Marcus Wilson | |
| 10 | Kaleb Fleck | Sergio Alcantara |
New York Yankees
| Rank | Baseball Prospectus | Baseball America |
| 1 | Aaron Judge | Luis Severino |
| 2 | Luis Severino | Aaron Judge |
| 3 | Gary Sanchez | Jorge Mateo |
| 4 | Ian Clarkin | Greg Bird |
| 5 | Jorge Mateo | Gary Sanchez |
| 6 | Rob Refsnyder | Ian Clarkin |
| 7 | Greg Bird | Rob Refsnyder |
| 8 | Leonardo Molina | Jacob Lindgren |
| 9 | Jacob Lindgren | Luis Torrens |
| 10 | Luis Torrens | Miguel Andujar |
Washington Nationals:
| Rank | Baseball Prospectus |
| 1 | Lucas Giolito |
| 2 | A.J. Cole |
| 3 | Michael Taylor |
| 4 | Reynaldo Lopez |
| 5 | Erick Fedde |
| 6 | Steven Souza |
| 7 | Jackson Reetz |
| 8 | Jake Johansen |
| 9 | Rafael Bautista |
| 10 | Wilmer Difo |
The End Result:
Go through and add your tallies up, along with our 10 locks from the top and find the number above and below and where the Phillies then fall in the middle. Let me know where that number is:
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The point of all this isn’t to say the Phillies system is secretly the Cubs, but that there are a lot of really crappy farm systems out there. If the Phillies are very, very bad, then there are a lot of absolutely horrendous farm systems. I wrote about this a while ago, but its key to remember that the majority of top prospects are with a handful of teams. Either we need to adjust our views on the Phillies system or realize the vast majority of systems are just not good.
Wow.
This is definitely a difficult chore to correctly assess and time-consuming.
Probably the most difficult I have encountered, primarily not knowing the prospects from many of the clubs after their top 4/5 prospects. And just going on what the pub experts say.
This is a great example of how using a top 100 as a quick shorthand of the strength of a system is a valuable tool. The new statement I am getting a little tired of hearing is well all of these guys from # to # are all the same and just projection. It is stating the obvious that all but the elite prospects are such a gamble, and that is why all it takes is a player like Crawford to completely turn around a system and when players of that magnitude graduate a system can just as easily drop to nothing. But it is that grouping that shows how much the system has grown over the last few years. That grouping has grown from 3-7 to 4-12 to 5-20 and then you are getting into an odds game where the more guys that have the potential to be an MLB regular (1st,2nd, or 3rd doesn’t much matter) the more likely you hit on a couple.