A 1 Month Phillies Prospect Ranking Check-in

We are just over a month into the minor league season, so it is a good time to do just do a quick check in on stock up and stock down for various prospect. It is rare that a player shows a sustainable breakout in the first month of the season, but it is possible. What is likely, and what we can see is prospects that we were lacking information on or were lacking professional track records have either taken a step forward or we have enough information on to have a more informed opinion. I have a dynamic ranking that I keep for my own purposes, but outside of Starlyn Caba and Wen Hui Pan predictably joining the top 15-ish group, there isn’t enough definitive to do an actual ranking update. I am going to use my preseason top 10 as a definite group to check in on and then go into some arrows up, down, and interesting.

The Top 10

1. RHP Andrew Painter – Everyone sort of knows what is going on here, but we can’t really make an opinion change here until either comes back healthy or not.
2. RHP Mick Abel – Abel flew under the radar last year and is doing it somewhat again this year. He is a bit stronger and his arsenal is more mature. Previously more of a 94-98 guy with some velocity loss over time, Abel is more sitting 96-98 with his fastball and getting to 99 and 100 during his starts. His arsenal is starting to separate out into a defined sweeper, curveball, and cutter set of “breaking” pitches and then a hard changeup to go along with the fastball. His fastball is dominant at AA and he is trusting it and his sweeper in the zone much more. There is still some front line upside, but he might be trending more in the #2 SP range, with more floor than we saw entering the year.
3. RHP Griff McGarry – Griff struggled with control while amped up on the big league field and then for the second year in a row had an oblique injury delay his start. His stuff looked intact in his Clearwater rehab appearance before his two inning return to Reading, and he should start ramping up from there. Sort of stasis until we see him at full strength, but the Spring Training outings are too small sample to read into.
4. IF Hao Yu Lee – Lee has not tapped into power to start the season (Jersey Shore also murders RH power, which will be something to watch), but he is posting good strikeout and walk rates for his age and level. If there is any negative it is that he is more on a normal path than meteoric rise.
5. OF Justin Crawford – Crawford is hitting .321/.384/.397 in full season ball, which should be making everyone positive. The problem has been that the contact quality has been garbage. He is elevating the ball a bit more, but that means his ground ball rate is not 70.2% and not the 80% it was a week or so ago (his April launch angle was -10.9 degrees, in May it is 1.7). He is not hitting fly balls at all. He is however hitting the ball much harder than expected, posting an average exit velocity of 88.1mph and 90th percentile near 105mph. The defense and speed are as expected, but the bat is going to be the key and so far the results are quite mixed.
6. OF Johan Rojas – Johan Rojas has returned to AA and has proceeded to match his BB%, K%, and ISO from his time there last year. He has added more BABIP thanks to a very high line drive rate. The big concern is the fly ball rate has once again collapsed, and while he shouldn’t be uppercutting the ball, a 22.5% rate isn’t going to cut it for tapping into the power. I still need to do a deep dive on his pitch recognition and talk to some evaluators on their opinions, but it does look like there is moderate growth here for Rojas.
7. SS William Bergolla Jr. – Bergolla is in the Florida Complex, away from more prying eyes. He has bulked up a bit, particularly in his lower half, which should help him impact the ball more. His season has barely begun so no real sweeping judgements.
8. OF Simon Muzziotti – Muzziotti has just hit. Finally healthy and playing everyday he is spraying hard contact everywhere. He is tapping into more power as he lifts the ball a bit more, but mostly he is a line drive machine. The contact and approach gains from the last few seasons are present to as he has a 6.0% BB% and 9.8% K%. There really is nothing bad you can say about a guy hitting .403/.436/.548 other than the Phillies don’t have a spot in the majors for him right now.
9. RHP Alex McFarlane – McFarlane was electric to open the season, throwing 100 mph fastballs right out of the gate. Things have backed off slightly, but he is still averaging 96+ and touching 98-99 in most starts. His whole arsenal is a spin rate monster, and his slider is devastating opposing batters. His control is still an issue, as is holding velocity through starts. He isn’t the instant success of Abel, Painter, or McGarry, but it has been a very good start to the year for him. The Phillies are also leaning into the sinker with him, which seems to work better with his natural fastball movement.
10. RHP Andrew Baker – Baker’s ERA (6.30) may indicate things are worse than they are, because it is being driven by 3 home runs in 10 innings. The walks aren’t perfect (4.5/9), but they aren’t terrible. His strikeout rate isn’t overpowering, but it also isn’t bad. His velocity is slightly down and it looks like he is still working on integrating the cutter into the arsenal. May not be the ready made flame thrower yet, but he isn’t that far off.

Arrow Up

• RHP Orion Kerkering – Coming into the season, Kerkering was a solid (94-97) fastball and plus slider reliever who looked like they could move fast as a middle reliever. Kerkering is now 98-99 T100 with what might be a plus plus slider and looks like a fast moving late inning reliever. Kerkering isn’t going to rocket up prospect lists beyond the back of a top 10 because he is a reliever all the way, but it is about as big a jump within role as a reliever could make.
• RHP Wen Hui Pan – Pan had a lot of buzz before the Phillies promoted him to the FSL, and did not disappoint out of the start. The 2023 signee averaged 97-99 out of the bullpen, touching 100 and showing a promising splitter and good strike throwing. The Phillies have begun stretching him out, and his velocity is more 93-96 in that role. He has a wide assortment of pitches that he will need to narrow down. If he can put the various pieces together, there is a very interesting starting pitcher in here. If he struggles in that role, he was electric in short relief.
• OF Carlos De La Cruz – It is more arrow slightly up than big up for De La Cruz. He is keeping his strikeout rate in a reasonable place (26.4% as I write this), but his walk rate is a bit low (6.6%) when paired with that. He is getting to his power consistently and hitting plenty of line drives too (which is driving the high BABIP). He is likely to be good defensively at first, and he is getting enough OF time where you can still say he can play there. The downside is still very present, and he has not really shown the star upside yet, but he is slowly shifting the likelihood of success curve.
• OF Gabriel Rincones Jr. – It shouldn’t be the case where a Phillies high round pick showing up and looks like he should gets a gold star, but it is. Rincones is already tapping into big time raw power. He is hitting the ball on the ground a bit too much, and his strikeout rate is a bit high, but he is moving well (16 SBs). There is work to be done here, but generally positive.
• LHP Samuel Aldegheri – Aldegheri is finally healthy and flashing good stuff. He has been 91-93 touching 94 with some good characteristics. His slider shows good potential, and he also throws a changeup and curveball. It is a back of the rotation profile, but he is very interesting.
• OF Ethan Wilson – Wilson is hitting for power, not striking out, and getting the ball in the air a ton more. We are now moving into the spot where he need to evaluate whether this is real, but right now it is a real sign of life which is something we did not get at all last year.
• RHP Jean Cabrera – Cabrera did not look like the pitcher that was promised last season. This year he has been 94-96 with his fastball with good ride. He is working on his changeup and slider, but there is a real pitcher to work with and not an idea.
• LHP Andrew Walling – Walling is a 2022 NDFA who was throwing 92-93 T95. He is now averaging 94 and touching 97 with a vertically oriented slider. He isn’t a big time relief prospect, and there are control problems, but he is the latest example of the Phillies plucking a pitcher from nowhere who becomes interesting.
• RHP Tyler Phillips – Phillips has missed the last two years to injury, including Tommy John, and is now back on the mound starting. His velocity is well up, sitting mostly in the higher range of 91-96. He also seems to have gained a sweepy slider to go with his changeup. He throws strikes and gets large ground ball rates, making him interesting as a back end starter again.
• C Caleb Ricketts – The Phillies 7th round pick in 2022 just hits. He is not fully tapping into long ball power, but he has a line drive % over 30% as he has peppered the gaps. He still will need to show he can stay behind the plate, but the bat is very interesting.

Arrow Down

• RHP Jaydenn Estanista – It isn’t down much, and it may be more due to hype than anything. The control continues to be a massive problem, and he is still looking for secondary pitches. The fastball has been a little less electric (averaging mid 94s touching 96), but has good shape. This is more an arrow down to slow any sort of expectation of a breakout.
• RHP Francisco Morales – Morales showed up to Spring Training, had a game where he flashed big velocity, then that collapsed and he slowly rebuilt back up to where he had been. The Phillies have made the slider harder into more of a cutter and gone all in on sinker over four-seamer. He will have appearances where he looks to be making progress and others where he actually can’t throw a single strike.
• OF Jordan Viars – Viars is still only 19, so things are far from over. He also shows large high end exit velocities. However, he is hitting .165/.275/.291 in a large part because his contact quality has been poor with a high ground ball and infield fly rate. This now his second full season in pro ball, and he is going to need to show some ability to consistently barrel up the ball.
• C Rickardo Perez – Perez was suspended for an undisclosed reason and is not present in Florida.

Holding Steady

• SS Starlyn Caba – He looks like the guy that they signed, but so far he has played in some Dominican league spring training, so no real conclusions to draw from that.
• RHP Tommy McCollum – McCollum has had more control issues than would be ideal, but he is striking out guys at a high rate and hasn’t been squared up. If the control issues persist for another month or two he will slip back some.
• RHP Noah Skirrow – Skirrow isn’t missing a ton of bats and his velocity has been more lower 90s, but he is doing back end starting pitcher stuff in AAA.
• OF Marcus Lee Sang – It has been sort of all over the place for Lee Sang to open the year. He is posting enormous walk (19.1%) and strikeout (32.7%) rates, with a better ball in play profile. He also has made some highlight plays on defense. The strikeout rate is the big worry, but he firmly still in the “very intrigued” tier of propsects.