Day After Devastation Thoughts

There will be plenty of time to get into offseason moves, but here the day after a brutal loss in a war of series, here some snap thoughts.

Dodgers Pitching Was Incredible and the Phillies Didn’t Hit It

Pitchers not named Clayton Kershaw this series: 73.2 IP 51 H 2.69 ERA 26 BB 76 K.

It was a wealth of high end pitching from both teams over the 4 games. The Dodgers started Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow in the series and Roki Sasaki was completely electric out of the bullpen. Snell is a two time Cy Young winner, Yamamoto is a lock top 5 finisher this year, Glasnow has a career of accomplishments (and injuries), and Ohtani is Ohtani. Largely the pitching kept opposing lineups in check all series with the Phillies group of Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and Ranger Suarez matching the Dodgers arms and shutting down Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts all series.

In the postseason you need to hit very good pitchers and the Phillies didn’t. The Dodgers largely did not as well, but they grouped enough hits together to win. It was a different challenge and vibe than the Mets and Diamondbacks series, but they still needed 2-3 times for someone to come through against a tough pitcher, and it didn’t happen.

Bader Injury Loomed

The acquisition of Harrison Bader did as much to change the outcomes of the Phillies regular season as anything. He was one of the better hitters in baseball, and played a gold glove center field. The Phillies plans largely hinged on him as Johan Rojas suffered a leg injury and a collision with Otto Kemp made Justin Crawford unavailable if the Phillies had wanted to pull that emergency lever. After Bader left Game 1 with an injured leg the game found his absence repeatedly. Whether it was Nick Castellanos immediately grounding into a double play or misplays in the outfield by Castellanos and Brandon Marsh, Bader’s absence was felt acutely over the next 3 games.

In addition to his physical absence, his ability to pinch hit only, meant that Weston Wilson was turned into a caddie for him and not an actual option to hit or run. It also left them with Brandon Marsh as the only player with CF by their name and Max Kepler as the only other player capable of standing in the middle of the outfield. Both of them are left handed bats against a Dodgers bullpen loaded with lefties. Marsh had a couple good plate appearances but was largely terrible and it let the Dodgers pitch around Alec Bohm who was the only hitter who looked consistently good. The Phillies all right handed bench was left mostly in the dugout while the Phillies had Castellanos in left field or on the bases. It would not have guaranteed a Phillies win, but had Bader been healthy the series would have been very different.

One RH Bullpen Arm Short

By the time he took the mound in a bad situation in the 11th inning, Orion Kerkering had warmed up multiple times and had already been in the fire twice in the series. It became clear early in the series that David Robertson didn’t have it and the Dodgers RH heavy bottom of the lineup was going to leave Tanner Banks mostly irrelevant in close games. Twice in the series, Kerkering got a weak ground ball where the Phillies failed to convert an out at home, and the fact that he was in that spot was a product of the Phillies having only 3 bullpen arms they trusted. The Phillies should return Duran, Strahm, Banks, and Kerkering with a player option on Jose Alvarado giving themselves some leverage should they want him back. They need to find some more dynamic right handed pitching, and they have some room to not have to go get another Jordan Romano. It is past time they found some young plus stuff guys to be able to leverage in big spots.

Sometimes You Don’t Get the Breaks

Alec Bohm hit a ball 105.1 mph with an expected batting average of .720 in the 11th inning off of Alex Vesia that would have scored Harper except it was right at a fielder. The umpire missed strike 3 to Alex Call in the 7th inning. Both plays and countless others could have gone the other way and the series is totally different. The combined margin of victory by the Dodgers in their 3 wins was 4 runs. In a series so evenly matched baseball really became a game of inches and the inches more often went the Dodgers way. There is always randomness and luck in baseball, it is a very basic part of the game, and in a 5 game series it can be the entire difference. The Dodgers with their healthy pitching were probably the better baseball team, but the actual difference in the two teams was just so small.