Phillies Minor League Monthly Retrospective – July 2025

Rest of Season Things to Watch

I just did a midseason ranking before the trade deadline that you can read for how I would rank the top prospects in the system, so doing a stock watch where I write the same information felt sort of silly. I also am taking a vacation at the start of September so there probably won’t be one of these for August, so rather than look at individual players I wanted to talk about some storylines and things I am watching over the last two months of the season.

40 Man Considerations

With the trade deadline over, the next two big transaction days in the minors are the post World Series deadline for adding minor league free agents to the 40 man roster and the protection deadline for the Rule 5 draft. Between the end of season and the Arizona Fall League there is an opportunity for a group of players to make themselves a part of the future. Andrew Painter is an obvious lock to get a spot, whether that is during the season or after, but the rest are not. On the pitching side Alex McFarlane’s future role is not yet decided, but he shouldn’t need to do much to position himself for a spot. Griff McGarry has more work to do, as does Eiberson Castellano who needs to find his way in the bullpen. On the hitting side, the trade of Hendry Mendez cleared up some space, and that is going to open up room for Gabriel Rincones Jr. and Felix Reyes to step in. There is some room for pitchers like Andrew Baker, Andrew Walling, Saul Teran, and Daniel Harper to put themselves into a competition, but are more long shots.

Late Promotions

The Phillies made a bunch of moves on Tuesday to make room for draftees on the 165 man roster, none of particular significance. However, as the various leagues start to wind down the Phillies have given certain players a look at a new level before they start there next year. None of the Phillies teams are positioned for a postseason run so that won’t be a consideration. However, there are some players that seem positioned to get a look at a new level. Dante Nori has had a scorching last month and given his age it would make sense for him to move quicker. It won’t be much, but do Aidan Miller, Jean Cabrera, and possibly others get a taste of AAA as that season runs longer. Alex McFarlane has not moved up and continues to pitch in a rotation, if he still has innings left does he get up to Reading? It isn’t much, but is there a little bit of excitement to be had late in the year.

Is There a Post Slump Bounce Back for Top Prospects?

For young players the summer can be a real grind. Aidan Miller has hit under .200 the last two months, Aroon Escobar is at .226, Andrew Painter has struggled with command, and Carson DeMartini hit .183 last month. The trade deadline and hearing their names in rumors likely didn’t do too much for any of that group either. There are underlying concerns about all of the group, but no one has really completely jumped off the bandwagon yet, nor are any of the base skills eroded for any of these players. The question is as pressure lessens and some of the players got some breathers with the All-Star games, do any of them have a bounce back in them. In particular it looks like Aidan Miller might be showing some signs of life.

Is Anyone Going to Have a Late Breakout Run?

The draft picks, in particular pitchers, aren’t going to play much this year and we have already established that the system is top heavy and thin. However, there is over a month left in the season for players to make an impression. There are a few players such as Felix Reyes, Avery Owusu-Asiedu, Devin Saltiban, Alirio Ferrebus, TJayy Walton, and Mavis Graves, among others, that have the talent or pedigree to go on a run through the end of the season and possibly AFL stint to establish they are part of that second tier of Phillies prospects. It is also one thing to name some known players, but there is time for someone who is off the radar to put themself on the radar heading into the offseason.

Monthly Stat Leaders

Hitting

Pitching

Mailbag

@bearc.bsky.social: What do the Phillies do with Bryson Stott at the end of the year? He’s arbitration eligible but since that breakout year in ’23 he’s seen his OPS and WAR decline in consecutive seasons. Do the Phillies have an in-house option ready, do we run it back, or look outside the org for a replacement?

@frankvisco.bsky.social: Would also love your thoughts on this. He’s gonna arb up near $5mil next year, which would be fine if he at least feasted on opposite-side pitching like a Sosa or Marsh is likely to do. But he looks like a defense-first utility infielder.

I really don’t know what to do about Stott. He is swinging less and less, particularly in the strike zone and teams are just throwing it in the zone more and more. He does not seem to recognize pitches well and just does not swing to do damage on pitches in whatever his nitro zone is. I don’t really see an internal option other than Aidan Miller playing some second in case he turns his Stott like issues around in 2026. IF they can remake the outfield, and get some more offense there you can live with Stott hitting 9th and playing good defense for now. If a better option were to become available I think they should think about it, but that better option just be that he loses more time to Edmundo Sosa.

@chrislemmo15.bsky.social: I know he’s a bit old for the level but how much stock are you buying in Felix Reyes’ breakout with Reading? What’s behind the breakout? The strikeouts have always been low but I’m guessing the contact quality has to be much better now

Felix Reyes might be my favorite prospect in the system. He is just crushing the ball right now, and obliterating left handed pitching. But he is doing it on the road and he is hitting right handed pitchers. He has swung a little less the last two years, but he is still a free swinger. He makes contact, and he swings at ball in the zone. I don’t know how his chase numbers have trended over the year, but he has walked a little more. It does look like the contact quality is much better, he has dramatically cut his ground ball rate and is hitting a ton of line drives with a good rate of fly balls. He hits the ball so hard that getting it off the ground is going to lead to good plays. I don’t really know how to value him, but he is rapidly moving from personal favorite to maybe this is a guy.

@dcs245.bsky.social: Who winds up being the highest leverage bullpen LHP in playoffs?

Ranger Suarez. I still think that Aaron Nola ends up as the 3rd SP in the postseason behind Wheeler and Sanchez, even if it is on a short list, that leaves Luzardo and Suarez as relief options (I think a #4 SP in a NLCS or WS is a “bullpen” game of sorts with one of those bullpen SP going 3-4 innings). I think in this scenario Luzardo is more of the bridge reliever with a 2-3 inning ability. Strahm could get high leverage, but I am betting on them leaning on Suarez’s calm in high leverage.

@papergreat.bsky.social: Where does Rojas go from here? Besides Painter & Crawford, what prospects have the best shot of making meaningful contributions to the 2026 Phillies?

It might be to another organization, but it might just be hanging on between the majors and AAA for another year. He has some major league utility to his speed and theoretical defense, but it is a lot of theoretical and not a lot of actual which is the problem. It has been safe for a while to say he is not a part of the future.

He has struggled this year, but Aidan Miller could be a contributor, especially if there is an injury or struggle and he finds his swing a gain. I am not entirely sure the path for Rincones given Marsh and Crawford, but he should be major league ready and has power that others lack. Jean Cabrera is probably going to be the 6th or 7th starting pitcher if he is still around and that guy always makes an appearance.

@johnlindros.bsky.social: Any chance in your opinion that starting today they tell Cabrera, McFarland, others like them, they are training for a possible bullpen spot in 2026? I understand that SP depth is nice, but they need to stop paying for Romano/Ross types and just groom their own 5th-8th BP arms for the minimum, imo.

I think Jean Cabrera is their starting pitching depth going into next year, I would start looking at McFarlane in a bullpen role. They really do not have much else. As for the bullpen, with the Duran trade, the 2026 bullpen actually is not in really terrible shape. The Alvarado and Strahm options feel very fair in this environment, particularly if Alvarado comes back looking good. That gives you Duran, those two, Kerkering, and Banks all under contract for 2026. You still have Johnson, Robert, and Lazar as depth pieces. You probably want to add a RH arm to that and some lottery tickets, but in acquiring a closer with control and getting past the Alvarado suspension the depth is reappearing.

@melkasinkas.bsky.social: Thinking into the off-season and beyond would bohm be a candidate to move to the OF? I thought you said years ago he could be a decent fielder granted he has developed into a solid 3B defensively. Maybe he moves to OF to make room for miller or an infield acquisition?

The Bohm to the outfield train has passed both because it hasn’t happened and he has become a solid defensive third baseman. I think for his last year of team control he either just plays third and you look at the Stott spot (or really the outfield) or there is a weird trade. I think Miller’s poor year has put him out of any real 2026 plans, and has mentioned above they might want to look at second given how he has handled short and Turner’s resurgence at short.

@nickedelman.bsky.social: How aggressive do you think they’ll be with Gage Wood’s placement? Is Reading a possibility?

This year, not at all. I don’t even know if he pitches in a real game. Maybe he gets some games in Clearwater, but I don’t get the sense that they are looking to push him differently than they have pushed other pitching prospects. Next year I think they would like for him to force his way to Jersey Shore to start the year and then from there it will depend on how well he pitches.

@thevideostore.bsky.social: Trying to rationalize moving Tait by thinking about Jhailyn Ortiz. Is it nearly impossible to tell where an 18 year old that seems like they have it all bat wise will end up?

Ortiz couldn’t recognize and hit breaking balls, and that went back to when he was 15. Tait has some swing holes because of his bat path and some stiffness, but you can’t just beat him with soft stuff. If he has a downfall it will be the wear and tear of catching or that he can be aggressive at the plate expanding the zone. Most people think he is going to hit, the question is does he hit enough to be a 1B/DH or can he catch enough to make it work without the catching hurting the hitting. The answer with young hitters is whether they will grow past the red flags, but you can often see the flags.

@frankvisco.bsky.social: Why do you think the Phillies aren’t trying Keaton Anthony out in COF?

I am not sure, and I am also not sure if that moment as passed. Anthony is a good defensive first baseman, and it isn’t going to take a ton of pressure off his bat if he is just an ok left fielder. The fit with the Phillies and Bryce Harper is of course the problem, but the Phillies have struggled to find a true backup for Bryce because they lack first base prospects. It does leave Anthony in a bit of a stuck place, but I am also not sure that moving him to left field actually solves anything.

@ocaptmyobvious.bsky.social: based on this season what is your expected outcome for painter?

I still think there is front of the rotation upside, but it is trending more towards #2 than #1. He has struggled with his command, but not his control, but I think that will come with time. He has also shown a feel for adding good pitches and I think that adaptability is going to serve him well in the long term. The July-ish comments coupled with his prospect hype has created expectations that have been difficult to live up to. I do think there are some worries about his fastball shape and consistency on his slider. He has added a sinker which will help the 4-seamer and I think we will see the slider become a cutter and a sweeper that will both be plus pitches and compliments to his curveball. He is also showing growing feel for his changeup. All of this is important development for his future, even if it is a disappointment this year.

@302czar.bsky.social: Does this mean Crawford is set to stay in the minors for the rest of the year?

I don’t believe so, but it does look like they aren’t making that decision yet. There was confusion about what August 15 meant for the Phillies and team control over him, but it is a date where they could call him up and maintain his rookie of the year eligibility and make him eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive pick if he were to win. Ultimately I think the Phillies will act rationally towards what will help the 2025 Phillies, not 2026 incentives. That said, I think they will probably follow this double platoon plan with Marsh and Bader playing almost daily. My guess is that he gets called up in late August and they look at a system where they are flexibly playing him, Marsh, Bader, Kemp, and Castellanos based on matchups and defensive needs.

@paulpaz.bsky.social: First, thanks for asking for them on Bsky and not that evil platform. Second, does anyone besides Dom think sticking with Kepler over bringing up Crawford is a smart move (and is it really about the money?)?

I don’t think they care about the money, it is already paid. Thomson still seems to have some belief in Kepler and the front office is willing to give it a week (hopefully just a week). There are also probably some people in the front office and on the coaching staff that also sees a path where Kepler could be a pinch hitter vs RHPs and they aren’t ready to shut that door. As I mentioned in the previous question, I don’t think it is Kepler vs Crawford, it is various iterations of the outfield that might also include just a Bader and Marsh outfield before they get to Crawford.