I want to skip to the Midseason reports
The Phillies entered the deadline with a need in the bullpen for an impact arm (which they acquired on Wednesday in Jhoan Duran from the Twins) and just a competent outfielder. It would have been nice had they gotten a big name or remade their roster, but mostly what moved today were marginal starters and high leverage relievers. However, once it became abundantly clear the White Sox had no idea what they were doing and asking for a king’s ransom for Luis Robert Jr. (who ultimately didn’t get traded) they came back to the Twins and acquired outfielder Harrison Bader.
Bader is a very deadline acquisition. A rental that the Phillies probably could have signed in the offseason had they gone in a different direction. Mostly known for his glove, which is a real plus in center and left (he has played mostly left this year next Byron Buxton) Bader is having a resurgent offensive season. He has traded some contact for power and is striking out much more, but working more and hitting more home runs. It is fair to assume he probably regresses toward being an average to slight below offensive player. The last two years he has had reverse splits, but in his youth he crushed left handed pitching. He is currently playing as a solid regular, but he is probably more of a guy who should be in a bit of a time share. He isn’t a perfect player, but at a deadline without perfect players he is what they needed in a mix with Brandon Marsh and either Max Kepler or Justin Crawford.
To get Bader the Phillies sent two prospects to the Twins. The better of the two is OF Hendry Mendez from the Reading roster, and then also DSL RHP Geremy Villoria.
Mendez didn’t need to be moved at the deadline, but he is the kind of player the Phillies move at the deadline. He is young (just 21), but will need to be added to the 40 man this offseason with no real path to the majors in 2026. He does a lot of the hard things well, but not all of the easier things. He has a good approach and gets the bat to the ball. His swing has gone from ugly, to ok and a bit flat which has taken his ground ball rate from over 60% to just over 50%. He has solid raw power, but even maximized he might struggle to hit 20 home runs. If the Twins improve his swing he is probably a 15 home run, high doubles, high average, and high on base left fielder. He isn’t going to add much defensively in the outfield either. He has a chance to be an everyday regular, but given the swing changes needed, he was not a safe prospect.
If Mendez was a predictable move, than Geremy Villoria is uncharacteristic of the Phillies. Villoria was signed $425,000 this January and has pitched in just 5 games. He is very young, not turning 17 until August 14. He has a projectable frame, but what stands out is his ability to pitch for his age. His fastball has sat mostly 89-92, touching 93. He has a changeup and a slider that show some future promise, and he throws strikes. Despite the age, Villoria pops for his polish more than his upside. Given his age, he certainly could be something big, but for that same reason he is really an eternity away.
Coming in as I wrote this the Phillies sent off another DSL player, in this case OF Josueth Quinonez for the recently DFA’d RHP Matt Manning. Quinonez is having a solid year, hitting .287/.397/.380 in 32 games as an 18 year old while walking more than striking out. Manning is a 27 year old on his last minor league option who was once picked 8 spots after Mickey Moniak. By ERA he had decent starting years in 2022 and 2023, but command and and contact problems have plagued him in the majors and AAA. He has averaged right under 95 mph on a fastball that has some cut but not the greatest shape. His slider and curveball have not missed bats, with his sweeper being the only real stand out pitch. The Phillies DFA’d Devin Sweet for him after letting go of Brett de Geus earlier in the day, and really that is where Manning slots. He is a depth piece with more major league control if the Phillies can put him in the lab (they are sending him to Clearwater) and make some improvements.
It wasn’t a stellar, knock your socks off deadline for the Phillies. They went to the store with a list, got what they needed, and tried to make some bigger things happen along the way. They are a better team having gotten some real players in areas with nothing. None of their trades stole a player away, they paid deadline prices for deadline additions. Ultimately it was always going to be their rotation and star hitters that would need to carry them into and in the postseason regardless of what they did.
Midseason Rankings (link)
10. Hendry Mendez, OF
Summary: Mendez entered the season with one of the ugliest swings you have ever seen and probably the best approach of any hitter in the system at the plate. His swing is still too flat, but he has cut his ground ball rate dramatically and hit more balls in the air. He has above average raw power, and if he can get the ball in the air more he should be a 15-20 home run hitter. If he can maintain the good approach and contact rates with that sort of improvement he should be a plus hitter in left field. He isn’t a great defensive player, but he can stick in the outfield for now. Mendez has come a long way this year, and at just 21 years old there still may be more potential.
Trade Deadline Thoughts: Mendez is Rule 5 eligible this offseason and probably needs to be protected while also being unlikely to contribute much to the 2026 Phillies. That is the demographic the Phillies often trade from. Since his swing does need work he isn’t going to appeal to all teams at the deadline, but there is a chance a team thinks he has untapped potential or just does not care about batted ball data enough to value him in a deal.
Thanks Matt. Your commentary and analysis really has developed into must read Phillies farm knowledge. Appreciate all the hard work.
Little disappointed Bader was the only bat. I’ll be more disappointed if Kepler is still here in 2 weeks. August 15th I believe is when Crawford can be brought up and it still saves a year of control.
August 15 does not affect year of control, it could affect whether he is Rookie of the Year eligible in 2026 and eligible for the Phillies getting a pick if he wins. The extra year of control is keeping the playing under a year service time at the end of the year, so if they brought him at any point this year they would get 6 more years of control (assuming he never is demoted). They could have 7 years after this one if they wait until some point in mid to late April of 2026. Given the uncertainty around him, it is best to do one is best for him and the team and let team control fall where it does if he breaks out.
Thanks for clarifying.
Always enjoy your work, Matt, and appreciate what you do.
What is your analytical Take on Kepler, his Swing seems to have a Swing Path a little Strange from the center field camera . Seems The ball has to be in a Certain Place for him to get to it for hard contact.
It is definitely a stiffer grooved swing, which is funny enough one of the observations I had of him way back in 2013 when I happened to catch him with Cedar Rapids. He does not have a ton of barrel control where he can just get the bat on the ball based on how the pitcher is throwing. That can work if your swing is on time and your approach is good, and I don’t know if that first thing in particular is true.