I want to skip to the Midseason reports
The Phillies, and really every team, has been desperate for impact relievers the whole deadline. The tea leaves heading into the deadline was that they had made catcher Eduardo Tait available as a big piece, and ever since his resurgence it was clear that RHP Mick Abel was a bit of an extra arm going forward. There was a bunch of bluster today that the cost for Twins closer Jhoan Duran was Andrew Painter, with similarly large asks from other teams.
In the end, the Phillies were able to keep it to just the two prospects they were looking to move in what is still a hefty price to pay for a reliever. Duran isn’t just a reliever, he is one of the best closers in the sport. He has seen his velocity tick down slightly (he has thrown a fastball over 104), but he still averages over 100 and in his splinker has one of the more dominant and unique pitches in baseball. This year he has added a sweeper to his curveball to give him two pitches that average the same velocity (87.2 mph) but with a vertical and horizontal way to attack hitters. He has put up a decent number of innings since coming up in 2022, but there is always injury concern with relievers. Duran has a good combination of strikeouts, control, and contact suppression. Over his career he has a 63.2% ground ball rate which has led to him keeping the ball in the yard. The other reason he cost so much is that he is only 27 and comes with team control for 2026 and 2027 which fits into the window of the Zack Wheeler contract.
As for the price given up, catcher Eduardo Tait is the less famous name, but is the better prospect. Tait is hitting .255/.319/.434 on the season between Clearwater and Jersey Shore. Most impressively he is doing at 18 years old as he won’t turn 19 until the end of August. He has plus plus and possibly elite raw power, and it comes easily to the pull side, but he can easily go the other way. It is a bit of a big uppercut, but he has made a surprising amount of contact. He can get aggressive at the plate, and chase, but so far in his career he has been able to correct with time at a level. He is a big kid behind the plate, with a strong arm, but not the best mechanics. He is still working on framing, but has not been terrible blocking and assuming he can keep his body in check he should be able to stick behind the plate even if he won’t win a gold glove there. He has a ton of upside if it all comes together, the risk is whether it can come together. Teenage catchers are one of the riskiest demographics because of the demands of the position and what it can do to their offensive abilities. The Phillies have managed Tait’s workload with him only catching 3 times a week with him getting time at designated hitter on the other days.
The fact that Mick Abel can be called a top prospect in a deal is a real credit to Mick Abel. Abel was the Phillies 1st round pick in 2020 and rocketed up rankings early and then injuries and ineffectiveness had him on the outs on prospect lists this offseason. Abel bounced back in a big way by simplifying things on the mound and really trusting a remade arsenal. He made his debut with the Phillies this year in an electric outing, but was unable to replicate it when called up again, but has largely put things back together in AAA. Abel will average about 96 on his 4-seam fastball and a tick less on his sinker. He can show 98-99 early, but has struggled at times to not be more 94-95 late. It isn’t a great shape, but it can miss bats up in the zone, and he has gotten better at keeping it near the zone. His best pitch might be a hard gyro slider that he can throw in the zone or for chases. His curveball can get a bit loopy, and is a good chase pitch, but he will hang them occasionally. His changeup flashes, but he is still working on finding consistency. Abel’s control has been a problem in the past, but he has gotten better at getting the ball in the zone. Outside of his debut he has had trouble consistently painting his spots. Right now, Abel is a major league ready back end starter who is probably going to be uneven start to start, flashing upside in some and struggling in others. If he can find consistency and improve his changeup, Abel could be an innings eating mid rotation starter.
It is a lot to give up for a reliever, and the Phillies backed themselves into a corner through development, acquisitions, and lack of acquisitions. The good news is that they are acquiring the type of reliever that is rarely available on the market and not a placeholder. If the Phillies make the postseason, Duran is exactly the type of guy you imagine on the mound to close out big games.
Midseason Rankings (link)
3. Eduardo Tait, C
Summary: Still just 18 years old, Tait moved up to Jersey Shore as one of the Florida State League leaders in power numbers. Tait is doing that while having his highest walk rate of his career and maintaining a strikeout rate under 20%. Tait has had some poor BABIP luck, but he hits a lot of easy fly balls that leads to easy outs which will naturally drive his BABIP lower. Still overly aggressive at the plate, Tait has gotten more patient month over month as the season has progressed. Unfortunately, he has not hit for as much power as he has gotten patient and opposing pitchers have expanded the zone. Tait still has plus plus raw power and can easily get to it on his pull side. On defense, he still needs work, but his strong arm continues to control the running game and he has been good at blocking. If he is going to stay behind the plate, it might be a slow progression especially as the workload inevitably puts some more strain on his offense.
Trade Deadline Thoughts: Tait appears to be the top prospect that is being shopped the most in deals. He has the upside to intrigue other teams in a big package, but he is probably the farthest away of any of the Phillies prospects due to his age and position. The Phillies shouldn’t and are unlikely to trade him for a rental, but he might be the player in the center of a closer with control trade.
7. Mick Abel, RHP
Summary: In the last year, Mick Abel has just become a more complete pitcher. His fastballs will average about 96, but still trail off a bit over his starts. He has gotten better at elevating his four seam, while keeping it competitive, and he has gotten better working his sinker in for weak contact in the zone. He hangs too many curveballs, but he has had more success in the majors with it. As he grows more confident in his slider it will help him keep hitters off balance. He needs to find a feel for his changeup and get better with his command. In his stint in the majors, Abel lost some confidence throwing in the zone, but has bounced back in AAA. He is a major league ready back end starter that has a chance to grow into a mid rotation arm if he continues to improve.
Trade Deadline Thoughts: Abel is probably the player the Phillies would like to trade the most, not because they don’t like him, but because they have starting pitching for the next few years. I don’t think he is off the table for a very good rental, but I think they would probably prefer to cash him for a player with control. If the Phillies don’t trade him, they could look to use him in the bullpen down the stretch and then possibly trade him in the offseason.