Phillies Minor League Monthly Retrospective – June 2025

Stock Changes

*Rankings are from preseason rankings / Statcast stats from Robert Orr’s website and Baseball Savant

Stock Up

OF Avery Owusu-Asiedu (UR) – It is hard to overstate just how poor 2024 was for Owusu-Asiedu. He struck out at a 36.1% rate and had a zone contact rate of 72.6%. He just did not hit the baseball. To start 2025 he put up a 35.4% strikeout rate in April. However, in May and June that number is 19.9% and he is walking 13.6% of the time as well. The contact issues are the glaring hole in what is otherwise a very interesting set of skills. This year with Clearwater, he had a 90th percentile exit velocity of 107.3mph which was 6th among hitters with at least 50 balls in play, and his max was similarly rated. His approach is not terrible either, with a reasonable chase rate and solid aggression in the zone. He is also a plus plus runner and plus defender in center field. Despite being a college draftee in 2023, he just turned 22 last month, so he isn’t old either. There is still a long way to go, but you can dream on at least 4th outfielder upside for him.

RHP Jean Cabrera (12) – Each new level is an adjustment, and it isn’t like Cabrera entered the year with the raw stuff to instantly dominate. However, for a pitcher who will need to rely on command to survive, Cabrera came out walking a ton of batters this season and that was a definite warning sign. Now 3 months into the season, he just put up a 3.33 ERA in 5 June starts and has seen his walk rate month over month go from 16.7% to 12.9% to 6.4%. In June his strikeout rate also ticked up slightly and his numbers for the months of 6.4% BB% and 23.6% K% are much more in line with his overall numbers from 2024. It is not surprising he is striking out fewer batters in AA than he did at Jersey Shore, but there is definite back end starting upside to a guy who can keep the walk rate under 7% and K% around 24%. The Phillies have not pushed Cabrera deep this season, his season high pitch count is 96, and his innings high is 6, but he has pitched at least 5 innings in every start since his first two, and has twice done a two start week with 4 days rest.

1B Keaton Anthony (25) – If you are a R/R first baseman you need to hit at every level, especially if you don’t have plus power like Anthony. It isn’t a large sample in AAA so far, but we can see he doesn’t have zero raw power, but he just is not geared to get the ball into the air where it is going to go out of the park. He has had great contact abilities, but the approach needs work, chasing too much while leaving some hittable pitches in the zone. If he can drive some of those pitches, then there is definitely more power, but it is sort of the Alec Bohm problem. It isn’t a big breakout for Anthony, and he might really only be a second division player due to the lack of home runs. However, if the bar for a first base prospect is that you have to really hit at each level, he is now all the way in AAA and hitting there.

2B/OF Dylan Campbell (N/A) – The Phillies gave up a chance to augment their organization via international free agency in order to acquire Campbell via trade. Over the first two months of the year he hit .179/.265/.338 with a .218 BABIP and 26.9% K%. Things however have clicked in June. He hit .321/.402/.487 with 11 walks to 12 strikeouts. He was promoted to Reading where he has been ok in two series. He is no longer playing second base with Reading, but it is important he keeps the infield flexibility in his arsenal because he is almost certainly some sort of utility player in the future. This is heightened by a real struggle against RHPs on the season, while crushing lefties in his limited playing time against them. Platooning is not the worst thing for a bench player, and if Campbell can keep up this new pace while being a guy who can play second and all three outfield positions, he will find himself with a major league job at some point.

Stock Down

OF Gabriel Rincones Jr. (7) – Rincones’ calling card was supposed to be power, and if he had consistently hit for any he might be in left field in the majors. Over the last two months he has hit just .174 with 8 XBHs. He has a .370 OBP because he has 40 walks (21.7%) to 48 strikeouts (26.1%) over that time period. You can’t really be a 2-true outcome player, especially when the one missing is the home run power. Rincones hits the ball hard, and he is hitting the ball in the air more, he just isn’t hitting the balls in the air hard. The patience at the plate and lack of swing and miss is good, especially since he has not been able to hit lefties at all, but he is a power hitter who is not hitting for power and that just is not going to cut it.

C Alirio Ferrebus (26) – After his 2024 season and 2025 FCL season, the book on Ferrebus seemed to be good hitter, good approach, needs to get the ball in the air more. With Clearwater, he has chased a ton and everything about his profile has started to suffer because of it. He has a very good zone contact rate, and isn’t particularly overexposed vs offspeed pitches, he just is taking called strikes and then swinging at poor pitches. It isn’t the end, and he is already starting to show signs of getting things more under control at the new level. However, there are persistent questions about his ability to stay behind the plate and when coupled with the offensive struggles that really puts a dampener on him becoming a useable trade chip at the deadline.

Stable/Mixed

OF Justin Crawford (4) – There are many areas of critique around how Crawford achieves that stats he does and the sustainability. The swing and quality of contact is certainly one, and he has had an ISO of .106, .111, and .125 overt he last 3 months all below where you would like to see him in AAA. The other, possibly connected, piece is his approach at the plate. Crawford makes contact, but there is a real question about whether he is making contact with the right pitches. After posting a 1 BB to 2 K rate for the first two months of the season, he walked 11 times to just 9 strikeouts in June, a surface sign that maybe we were seeing a real change in approach for him. Unfortunately, the underlying data only partially bears out a change,

Month	Zone%	Swing%	Con%	Z-Swing%	O-Swing%
April	45.2%	50.5%	80.4%	69.5%	34.9%
May	47.5%	50.8%	79.5%	71.7%	31.9%
June	43.8%	51.5%	80.8%	74.6%	33.5%

He swung more overall, but it mostly looks to be a shift in number of pitches in the strike zone. He did not a ton as the zone expanded, but we don’t see less chase, we see more, and we do see an increase in zone swinging, but it comes as part of the overall swinging more often. Probably the biggest indicator of success is that his 2-strike contact rate month over month is 79.3%, 79.5%, 90.9%. He wasn’t a dramatically better hitter with two strikes over previous months, but he was able to cut the strikeouts down and good things happen when he has put the ball in play in AAA. Overall, it is certainly a skill to stay alive with two strikes, but as we have seen with Bryson Stott over the last 3 years it is a trick you want in your bag, but it does not carry a whole profile.

C Eduardo Tait (5) – The negative is that Eduardo Tait hit .217 in June and after hitting 6 home runs in April, had two in each of the last two months. However, Tait had a 13.4% walk rate and 16.5% strikeout rate as his swing rate and chase rate both decreased. His quality of contact struggled as he has made a positive adjustment to pitchers expanding the zone more, so he will need to not pop up as many balls and be more decisive with his swing decisions. It could be interpreted as a positive overall month for his long term development, but given the stretches of hitlessness and struggles it is hard to be too positive. So far in July he might be putting it all together.

Monthly Stat Leaders

Hitting

Pitching

Mailbag

Moops: Is Dante Nori starting to show some promise? How does he compare to Crawford at same level in terms of potential upside?

Crawford and Nori continue to move on two opposite paths. Nori makes a ton of line drive contact with good plate discipline stats. He just cannot hit the ball hard. Crawford makes contact, but he expands the zone too much. He hits the ball relatively hard, but on the ground a ton. In terms of upside, it is Crawford easily because there are the raw tools. I don’t think Nori has a higher floor either, and I think that really shows that Crawford was the #17 pick and Nori was really more of a 1.5 round pick.

The 65th: Assuming the Phillies could satisfy their primary needs — RH power bat that plays the outfield and top-level BP arm that can close — which prospects are you most okay/not okay losing? Let’s assume the OF bat and bullpen arm are RENTALS ONLY, so not the long-term gain you might hope for when giving up good prospects.

I will get to this a bit more with a later question and to the midseason rankings where I will tier out the prospects for trades. That said, to me there is a very clear group of Painter, Miller, Escobar, Tait, Crawford, and Abel that to me aren’t available for rentals. Everything below that depends on the rental. If you got a rental RP who can pitch the 8th or 9th of a WS game, I probably would give up anyone other than that group. I think you are probably looking a tier lower if that RH bat is more of a good platoon bat than an everyday guy.

@lentilsoup.bsky.social: Do you think Abel gets traded for a reliever by the deadline? Is there a world where they try to end Painter or Abels season w/ relief appearances and use these dynamic arms for the playoffs?

I think it depends on the reliever, but I think they would move Abel for a late inning reliever with multiple years of team control, but I am not sure they would move him for a rental as I detailed above. I think Painter might be available as a bulk reliever in a postseason, but I doubt they ever make him a single inning arm. If Abel is still in the system come the deadline I think they start moving him to the bullpen in August or September for a 1-2 inning role.

@jdelly.fightins.online: Are there any serious holes in the farm system?

I could say everything because the farm system is very thin at this point, but I think pitching is the real hole. You have Painter, and then Abel, and then there is a giant gap to the sort of flawed group of McFarlane, Cabrera, and Chace. After that it just is really thin. You have relievers like Seth Johnson and then rapidly down to the complex level arms and it just gets rough quick.

@anthonyesbensen.bsky.social: What’s a realistic plan for the OF in 2026? (So say Tucker is a Cub or a Yankee).

Kepler is gone, I’d probably cut Castellanos, you would like to move Marsh off CF and would also like Crawford to work but don’t love his game translating. (and Rojas can’t hit)

I put this in the last mailbag, but I think going forward you are probably looking at one big bat, one internal, and one sort of platoon. I think they will give Justin Crawford a chance in center if he is not traded for a controllable outfielder. I don’t know if Castellanos is cut, but I think they will certainly look to trade him and pay down most of it. I just don’t know what they do in RF for 2026 given it really is Tucker and not much else. Maybe it is a trade. This might all be talking into a Marsh-Crawford-Castellanos outfield to start the year which is probably not great. The other problem is that the other internal options, Hendry Mendez and Gabriel Rincones Jr., are also left handed. A trade is probably the only way to fix this.

@akhil-is-mad.bsky.social: what are changes you would be interested to see in how the draft works (other than getting rid of it of course) and why do you think the phillies still stick to their plan of drafting pitching with stuff but no control plus hitters that are athletic but not as much pop when they’ve shown no success?

I think drafting pitchers with stuff will not go away, and frankly I just don’t think they draft enough of them. If you are where the Phillies are, you should be drafting towards upside over safety. The hitting side, they think they can develop hitting tools and swings, and approaches in a way they just can’t. Some of this is they also aren’t drafting in a place where there is safety. They are at the best in the draft when they left guys falling due to risks in information deficits and profile fall to them like Miller or Painter as opposed to falling in love with certain guys. They can absorb the risks of development time in the name of talent.

As for the draft itself, I would get rid of slots or go hard slotting and then evaluate in draft trading. The slots that can be moved around function as pseudo trading, but they lead to players being exploited for their lack of eligibility and the draft not tracking along with just taking best player, which just kills the viewing and analysis.

@meangreenjonesy.bsky.social: After loading up on hitters the last couple of years in the draft, do they restock the pitching this year?

I don’t know if they do, but they should. I think in the first round it is probably going to be a high school hitter, and it is probably fine to do that in the second round as well. That is just because that is where those guys fall and then they are not present later in the draft. However, after that I would like to see them in the 3rd to 7th take multiple pitchers in the Griff McGarry, Alex McFarlane, Orion Kerkering, George Klassen nexus of good stuff projects to work on. They need to inject stuff into the system.

@ocaptmyobvious.bsky.social: who among the prospects do you think is most likely to be traded for help? who do you think is most valuable among that group?

@wheelerdeal.bsky.social: Which prospects would you put as untouchable, unlikely to be traded, and likely trade bait?

This will be the subject of the post draft prospect ranking, but I think your quick breakdown of mostly likely to be traded for different type of help, or at least who the Phillies would push in certain areas.

Multiple Years of Control: Eduardo Tait, Mick Abel

Rental: Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane, Jean Cabrera, Gabriel Rincones Jr., Alirio Ferrebus, Otto Kemp, Keaton Anthony

Minor moves: Casey Steward, Mavis Graves, Saul Teran, Avery Owusu-Asiedu, Michael Mercado

In general I don’t have untouchables, it is about the value. I don’t know if there is an Andrew Painter trade that makes sense for me. I don’t know if I believe in Griffin Burkholder or Dante Nori, but I think you are just selling low, sort of same thing with Moises Chace, but he has 40 man implications. I don’t know if I am moving complex level prospects unless a team is really valuing them.

@chrisblue.bsky.social: What do you make of McLean Abel–the decisions about him, his humiliations, the constant comparisons with Painter (who I’m beginning to believe doesn’t exist)?

I think Mick Abel is a near MLB ready #4 starter with a #3 ceiling. The jump from AAA to majors is hard and he sort of had things spiral on him. He needs to tighten up his command and pitch usage, but there is a real MLB pitcher there. I don’t mind sending him down and letting him reset. I don’t know if he really has been seriously compared to Painter since mid 2023.

@oneineptguard.bsky.social: Who is the most likely guy to be traded from the major league team at the deadline IF there were a big shocking move. I dont think there will be anything crazy, but just for sake of argument. Im thinking like Marsh/Rojas in terms of guys that aren’t untouchable but really really unlikely.

I think if they acquire an outfielder it would not be too shocking if Johan Rojas is in that deal. I don’t see Marsh being moved because I don’t see a lot of deals with real Brandon Marsh upgrade. If there is a truly shocking, but unlikely move, I could see a universe where Bryson Stott finds himself heading out in a deal, especially for an infielder. Once again, I don’t think it is likely, but it feels like one of the only levers that can be pulled.

@chrislemmo15.bsky.social: It feels like 3 of the top hitting prospects (Tait, Escobar, Miller) all had a really rough month. Focusing more on Miller though, how concerned are you about the pretty dramatic home/road splits so far?

I am definitely worried about Miller, but also he doesn’t have big power differences between home and road, so maybe some is just randomness. He had a down June and July last year, and I think it is applicable to all three that young players definitely wear down in the middle of the season. Miller has been way too passive and sometimes changing that is just mental, but I worry if he is seeing the ball properly.

@papergreat.bsky.social: Any new Painter thoughts? Starting to think there’s a good chance he’s not part of October plans. He’s at 51 IP now and will probably be around 75 by the end of July. What’s his precautionary IP cap, do you think? Can’t imagine it’s over 110.

I think his cap is in the 100-120 range, but also I am not sure if we should be counting some of the April innings as they were more Spring Training for him, which makes the math fuzzy. I think he will be part of the October plans, but I don’t know if right now he is going to start games, nor do I think he will go into 1 inning outings. He probably is in a multi-inning bullpen role, which means you are probably talking about 10-15 innings total on a full World Series run. I would like to see him really dominate for a start or two, but I don’t like his command not quite being where it had been.

@enyalois.bsky.social: Still in Wisconsin?

Hope it was a move you wanted wanted.

I kept this question because it lets me mention about this all being delayed by buying a house and moving. We are indeed still in Madison, WI and it is a move we wanted to make that was a long time in the works. I apologize about delays in writing and lack of extra writing so far this season.