Index: 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
The Phillies system is not where it was at the height of the rebuild. It lacks depth, especially depth in the 11-20 range and it is probably short another top 100 prospect. That said, Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard are one of the best 1-2 punches of major league ready impact talent the organization has had, especially when it comes to having loud impact tools. The rest of the top 10 is not filled out with nobodies. There are some first round picks, some big time international free agents, and then two guys who weren’t on anyone’s radar entering the year. For as depressing as it can be seeing that Mickey Moniak isn’t a superstar #1 overall pick, it is important to look at the players in the top as a group, and frankly there is some real talent here, and some talent that could be primed for a breakout in 2020.
1. Spencer Howard, RHP
Age: 23 Acquired: 2nd Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’2” 205lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| GCL (Rk) | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 5.1 | 5.07 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 6.1% | 34.8% |
| CLW (A+) | 7 | 7 | 2-1 | 35 | 1.29 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 4.0% | 38.4% |
| REA (AA) | 6 | 6 | 1-0 | 30.2 | 2.35 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 7.4% | 31.2% |
| AFL | 6 | 6 | 1-1 | 21.1 | 2.11 | 4.2 | 0 | 12.0% | 32.5% |
Role: #2 Starter
Risk: Medium – You don’t really have to squint to see a plus plus fastball, a plus changeup, a plus breaking ball, and plus control from a big athletic pitcher. Those are all the pieces needed for a front line starter. All that is really missing for Howard is some consistency and track record.
Summary: The 2019 season was supposed to be Spencer Howard’s big breakout. His second to last start of 2018 had seen him throw a 9 inning no-hitter in the playoffs, while hitting 100 and showing an array of good offspeed pitches. For 4 starts in the Florida State League everything was going to plan, and then he had arm soreness and missed two months to healing and close to another month of just building his innings per start back up. It wasn’t until late in the season, this time with Reading in AA, that Howard started to look like the guy from late 2018. He once again was brilliant in the playoffs before the Phillies sent him to the Arizona Fall League in an attempt to try and make up for lost time from the injury. The end result was just shy of 100 innings, and with a career high of 126 innings set in 2018, Howard looks to have an innings cap of sorts for the 2020 season. Howard at his best sits in the mid to high 90s with an explosive fastball, routinely touching 98-99 while sitting a bit lower. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, and unlike with many hard throwers, his is actually in a more normal velocity band (80 to 84), leaving a large velocity separation from his fastball. However, he has great deception on the pitch, throwing it nearly exactly like his fastball, and it has good fade. His breaking balls inspire a level of controversy, as different evaluators like each one a bit differently. His slider is a two plane breaker that he can run out of the zone for swings and misses. His curveball is very vertical, and can really freeze batters who are not expecting it. The general consensus is that he has at least a plus breaking ball and an average breaking ball. Howard’s command has come and gone, at times making him look like a complete artist, and other times he will be loose in the zone. He is athletic enough that average command and plus control is not a stretch. It is not just the raw stuff that excites everyone with Howard, he has missed a ton of bats at every level, and for a guy with not a lot of starting pitching experience, he seems to have developed a good feel for it fast. The Phillies are still trying to figure out when they will be able to deploy him in the majors and still have him for September and possibly the playoffs, but he is very much a part of their 2020 plans. There is probably enough inconsistency to Howard’s game to make him probably more of a #2 than a true ace, more along the lines of the current version of Zack Wheeler than a Cy Young favorite. The floor is probably the optimistic version of Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta, where he is awesome one start and meh in another, and reaches the end of the season with solid #3 starter’s cumulative numbers.
2020 Outlook: No one really knows what Howard’s innings limit is this year, just that he has one. The Phillies seem to be prepping for 4+ months of him in the majors. That means he might not really break camp with Lehigh Valley, but instead spend some time building up innings per start, and then going to AAA for tuneups before joining the big league club.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: 4
2. Alec Bohm, 3B
Age: 23 Acquired: 1st Rd, 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’5” 225lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LKW (A-) | 22 | 93 | 3 | 3 | 12.9% | 15.1% | .367 | .441 | .595 |
| CLW (A+) | 40 | 177 | 4 | 1 | 9.6% | 11.9% | .329 | .344 | .500 |
| REA (AA) | 63 | 270 | 14 | 2 | 10.4% | 14.1% | .269 | .344 | .500 |
| AFL | 19 | 78 | 2 | 0 | 6.4% | 20.5% | .361 | .397 | .528 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Medium – Bohm is essentially major league ready, and his bat is about as good as you could ask for from any prospect. His defensive issues bring some questions about value, but his bat works well at first base. He has not yet played in AAA, and while he should hit for plenty of power, there is not quite enough impact certainty to overcome the current lack of experience.
Summary: Alec Bohm was considered the best college bat in the 2018 draft, but certainly did not start at that level. After hitting terribly in his pro debut and then reportedly having a bad spring training, the Phillies sent the #3 overall pick to Lakewood. Whether it was to break him away from Florida (Bohm had bought a place near the Phillies complex and had been training there prior to Spring Training) or because they didn’t think he was ready for Clearwater, we probably won’t know, but it worked. Bohm went 1 for his first 13 with the BlueClaws, and then proceeded to hit .424/.481/.682 over his next 18 games, earning a promotion to the Florida State League, and then never really looked back. He would have a rough July in Reading after his promotion, but hit .311/.402/.535 down the stretch with more walks (17) than strikeouts (15). Bohm is really like no other hitter currently in the minors. His build is that of a slugger, hitting towering home runs, but his swing isn’t geared that way. He has plenty of raw power, and even without becoming the slugging monster some thought he might be, he still should hit 25-30 home runs a year. What Bohm is instead is a contact machine. He isn’t a free swinger either, instead he is quite patient at the plate and not afraid to work in a 2 strike count. His swing is quick, it is compact, it is in the zone for a while, and it has full plate coverage. The result is a season strikeout rate of 13.5% while still maintaining a 10.6% walk rate. It means that Bohm’s offensive profile is more in the Justin Turner or Matt Carpenter mold than Kris Bryant. It is likely not worse, it is just different than many expected. The problem of course with Bohm is his defense at third base. He is not a good defender, though much improved. He is not particularly athletic or instinctual, so while he moves well and has a plus arm, there are definite errors there. Bohm works really hard and has made enough strides that a below average defensive outcome is within reach. That might not be enough for most teams to keep him at the hot corner. The Phillies have Rhys Hoskins and no DH yet, and are going to be highly motivated to force it to work at very least for the short term. If Bohm hits his ceiling, he could be a perennial All-Star and middle of the lineup force, and while that might take a few years, his feel for contact and natural power should make him a contributor as soon as the Phillies call him up.
2020 Outlook: Bohm probably needs a little bit of time in AAA to get some more reps at third base and to polish things off at the plate a bit more. It is unlikely the Phillies keep him down for long, and he is likely the first call up if there is an injury, because thanks to Scott Kingery, Bohm is functionally the backup at 5 different positions.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: 1
3. Francisco Morales, RHP
Age: 20 Acquired: 2016 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’4” 185lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LKW (A-) | 27 | 15 | 1-8 | 96.2 | 3.82 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 11.0% | 30.9% |
Role: #2/#3 Starter or Closer
Risk: High – Morales’ fastball is plus and his slider might be the best offspeed pitch in the org since Aaron Nola was a prospect. However, he has not pitched above Lakewood, and there are legitimate concerns about his ability to consistently throw strikes.
Summary: The Phillies have had a history over the last half decade of developing hard throwing Latin American pitchers. Unlike most of that bunch, Morales was not an unheralded prospect when the Phillies signed him, instead he was one of the top pitchers in the 2016 July 2 class. Morales is a big guy with a thick lower half that he uses to generate power on his pitches. He has actually gotten more athletic and smooth as he has matured, but he still can struggle to sync up his delivery. He has been a real student of the game, working with pitching coaches on the background data to try and find that consistency. The appeal of Morales is pretty obvious from the first fastball he throws. He routinely sits 91 to 96, touching 97. It would not be surprising if that range goes up a little bit and he hits triple digits a couple of times a year, but it is already a plus pitch. His weakest secondary pitch is his changeup. It is a bit hard and flat, and it lacks consistency. He has shown growth in it, and will occasionally show that he does have feel for throwing it, but it is still more of a dream than a usable pitch. The real key for Morales is his slider. It is a plus plus pitch that he shows control over that would make most major leaguers jealous. At its base, it will sit in the mid 80s with a sharp two plane break. From there, he can tighten it up into more of a horizontal cutter pitch in the 87 to 89 range, or he will slow it down into the 79-83 range as more of a power curveball. Even if the changeup doesn’t come along fully, Morales’ control over his slider makes him more of a 4 pitch pitcher than a 2 pitch pitcher. The lack of the changeup and the control issues have a lot of people thinking his future role is in a bullpen, where he could profile as a closer or 8th inning type high leverage arm. However, he has the body to hold up to a starter’s workload, and while he will never have a dominant third pitch, he has the kind of arsenal that might survive as a mostly two pitch pitcher. For now, the Phillies have shown no sign of developing him as anything but a starting pitcher, and a good year in 2020 could put him among some of the best pitching prospects in the game.
2020 Outlook: Morales will open the year in the Clearwater rotation, but the Phillies have not been afraid to bump guys to Reading in the middle of the season. Morales is only 20 years old, so the clock isn’t ticking, but he is Rule 5 eligible after this year, so he can’t lollygag too much.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 8
4. Bryson Stott, SS
Age: 22 Acquired: 1st Rd, 2019 Draft
B/T: L/R H/W: 6’3” 200lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| GCL (Rk) | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 18.2% | 0.0% | .667 | .727 | 1.333 |
| WPT (SS) | 44 | 182 | 5 | 5 | 12.10% | 21.4% | .274 | .370 | .446 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Stott has a couple of knocks against him, particularly the swing and miss at the plate and his ability to stick at shortstop. However, Stott has good tools across the board to be a contributor of some sort.
Summary: For much of the draft process, Bryson Stott was viewed as a top 10 pick, but on draft day he started to fall a bit, as teams with extra picks swung deals and a couple high upside high school bats rose. Part of the reason Stott fell in the draft is he lacks not only an elite tool, but also a plus one. However, Stott does not have a tool that is below average. He is not the greatest defender at short. His range is fine and his fielding is good, but his arm just has average strength and his throwing motion is a bit funky. It is likely that, if he has to move off of shortstop as an everyday position, he could easily handle second or third base. For now, there is no need to force that issue, and if he can stick at the position it helps his overall profile. At the plate, Stott has some swing and miss because his swing has some upper cut to it. However, he has a good approach at the plate and makes good contact. He has above average raw power, which likely plays more average, and he is an above average runner as well. The collection of tools, if he can play a solid shortstop, has a chance to make him a first division regular in aggregate. It is highly likely some part of his skill set fails to develop to its peak, making him merely a solid regular that can be plugged in at three different infield positions depending on team need. He is not as polished as some other college bats, but he should move fairly quickly and could contribute to the Phillies by mid 2021.
2020 Outlook: Outside of Bohm, the Phillies have started their high pick college draftees in Clearwater, and Stott had a good enough year in Williamsport to not create concerns. If he follows the path of others, he will be in Reading by early July.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: N/A
5. Luis Garcia, SS
Age: 19 Acquired: 2017 International Free Agent
B/T: S/R H/W: 5’11” 170lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LKW (A-) | 127 | 524 | 4 | 9 | 8.4% | 25.2% | .186 | .261 | .255 |
Role: Above Average Regular
Risk: High – Garcia’s biggest problem is his lack of physicality hindering his ability to impact the baseball at the plate. Despite the dreadful stats in 2019, Garcia still has a good feel for contact and is a good defender at shortstop.
Summary: In 2017, the Phillies once again went out and signed one of the top players in the international market, giving $2.5 million to shortstop Luis Garcia. A year later in 2018, he rewarded that investment by hitting .369/.433/.488 in the GCL at 17 years old. Garcia was widely praised as one of the most advanced teenagers in baseball, and even made some top 100 prospects lists, and the Phillies aggressively pushed him to Lakewood. Garcia was an offensive disaster in Lakewood. He is not a large framed individual, and was not physically developed for an 18 year old either. The result was he was physically overmatched at the plate all season long, hitting the same .186 in both first and second halves. The good news is that the tools that made Garcia a top prospect are all still present. He has a good approach, and he has a good feel for contact. Once he physically matures, that contact ability is going to translate into him consistently driving the ball more, and pitchers giving him more respect at the plate. He is never going to be a big power guy, but he has solid bat speed from both sides (yes, he had to manage two swings during this aggressive promotion) and that combined with his contact abilities probably means he will hit double digit home runs at his peak. Garcia is a good fielder, blessed with a plus arm, and he should not only stick at shortstop, but he should be good there long term. He has played a lot of second base, but that was more due to sharing a roster with another gifted shortstop in Jonathan Guzman. The biggest danger of promoting a player to a level where they will struggle is whether it will instill bad habits or mental blocks, and so far Garcia seems clear of those. He will get another crack at Lakewood to open 2020, and if he hits he will climb right back up national lists. He is going to take some time to develop, but he is only 19, so time is something he has plenty of.
2020 Outlook: Given his poor year in Lakewood and the presence of Stott likely in Clearwater, having Garcia repeat Lakewood seems prudent. If he can get his feet under him, a midseason move to Clearwater might be in his future.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 3
6. Rafael Marchan, C
Age: 21 Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent
B/T: S/R H/W: 5’9” 170lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LKW (A-) | 63 | 265 | 0 | 1 | 9.1% | 11.7% | .271 | .347 | .339 |
| CLW (A+) | 22 | 86 | 0 | 1 | 7.00% | 9.3% | .231 | .291 | .282 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Marchan has a lot of the base tools to be a good catching prospect. He is not a great defender yet, but he should be a solid defender by the time he reaches the majors. He will need to show more power at the plate, but he has an advanced feel for contact given his age.
Summary: Jhailyn Ortiz was the Phillies’ big name and money signing in 2015, but Marchan was not far behind Ortiz at the time of signing. Marchan was a converted infielder who was new to catching, but he had an innate feel for contact. Since then, Marchan has taken to catching very well. He still has some maturing to do when it comes to receiving and blocking, especially when it comes to consistency, but he shows enough talent that he should be able to remedy those issues by the time he reaches the majors. He has a strong arm and has been pretty consistent at throwing out base runners. At the plate, he has a great feel for contact and has posted well below average strikeout rates everywhere he has played, while also starting to walk at a good rate too. Marchan has yet to hit a professional home run, but he has the raw strength to do it, and it is likely that he will grow into a 10-15 home run a year player. Otherwise, he is a line drive machine who is going to hit a lot of doubles. The Phillies left Marchan unprotected in this past Rule 5 draft because he is far from the majors, but they will not have that luxury next offseason, especially if he reaches Reading by the end of the year.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies pushed Marchan to Clearwater late, but he will need more time at the level. If he plays well, a midseason promotion to Reading is likely.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 10
7. Adonis Medina, RHP
Age: 23 Acquired: 2013 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’1” 185lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 22 | 21 | 7-7 | 105.2 | 4.94 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 8.80% | 17.50% |
Role: #3 Starter/High Leverage Reliever
Risk: High – Medina has a mid rotation starter’s arsenal, but he didn’t show it in 2019. He needs to show a lot more consistency and ability to hold his stuff deep into outings.
Summary: A couple of years ago, Medina was the rising star in the Phillies system. He was younger and more athletic than Franklyn Kilome, and while he couldn’t match Sixto Sanchez’s raw talent, his mix of pitches was not that far behind his fellow Dominican. Medina’s 2019 season saw all of that come crashing backwards. His fastball was more in the 90 to 94 mph part of his velocity range and less up into the 95 to 97 range. He mysteriously scrapped his slider, which was trending as plus for much of the season, instead relying on his average curveball. His changeup still flashed plus, but wasn’t consistently there. Medina’s profile also does not fit the new fangled discussions of what is effective, his fastball is more of a two seam sinker than an explosive 4 seamer. Medina is also not a large guy, and he wore down under the AA workload. The stuff that made Medina a high end prospect is still all present. He has plus fastball velocity, his changeup can be a plus pitch with good deception and fade, and he has shown a plus bat missing slider. If Medina can’t put all of the tools together again, he still has plenty of upside in a bullpen where he could be a high end setup man, especially if his pitches play up in short bursts.
2020 Outlook: Given his 2019 season and the collection of pitchers in AAA, Medina likely returns to Reading to open the year. With a good season,he could get a bump to AAA to compete for the 2021 rotation. A poor year, and he could be getting bullpen auditions late.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 2
8. Mickey Moniak, CF
Age: 21 Acquired: 1st Rd, 2016 Draft
B/T: L/R H/W: 6’2” 185lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| REA (AA) | 119 | 504 | 11 | 15 | 6.5% | 22.0% | .252 | .303 | .439 |
| AFL | 17 | 74 | 0 | 3 | 5.10% | 22.9% | .186 | .230 | .300 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: High – Moniak has some problems at the plate stemming from a subpar approach and poor pitch recognition. He can stick in center field, but is not a good enough defender to keep him out in the field everyday without the bat making improvements.
Summary: If all judgement around Mickey Moniak’s career is focused on his status as the #1 overall pick in the 2016 draft, then he has been a complete failure so far, but in reality that status became unimportant after they drafted him. What is important going forward is what Mickey Moniak can be for the Phillies, not what he could have been, and what he can be is still actually pretty interesting. The calling card for Moniak as an amateur was his hit tool, and that part of his game has slipped some, but not entirely. He has a good looking swing and a good feel for making contact. The part that has been lacking since day 1 is his pitch recognition and approach, and while he has made progress, he still swings at too many pitches that he shouldn’t. The combination of poor pitch selection and below average strength has led to a lot of poor contact. Moniak has done a lot, particularly this offseason, to get stronger, and he now projects to have at least average raw power. The end result is that Moniak probably ends up with a batting average of a plus hit tool, but a lower on base percentage, and 30+ doubles and 15-20 home runs. It is likely that line comes with heavy platooning, as Moniak has continued to struggle against same side pitching. Moniak was billed as at least a plus runner and plus defender out of the draft, and both of those tools are more in the average to above average range. It is really easy to see a major league career as a platoon outfielder or high end #4 outfielder. However, the ceiling continues to be a solid starter in center field, and Moniak is not that far off achieving that possibility. Moniak is only 21 years old, and while that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a large well of untapped potential, it does mean he still has time to make incremental adjustments and still peak in his early 20s.
2020 Outlook: Whether Moniak starts in AA or AAA could depend on Andrew McCutchen’s health and how many non-roster invite guys the Phillies keep around to open the year. It is likely that he spends most of the season in Lehigh Valley either way.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 9
9. Johan Rojas, CF
Age: 19 Acquired: 2017 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’1” 165lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| GCL (Rk) | 18 | 84 | 0 | 3 | 10.7% | 14.3% | .311 | .393 | .527 |
| WPT (SS) | 42 | 172 | 2 | 11 | 2.90% | 16.9% | .244 | .273 | .384 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Rojas has the making of impact tools, but he is incredibly rough around the edges. While his defense in center field gives him a decent floor, his hit tool has a very long way to go.
Summary: Over the last decade, there has been a proliferation of prospect writing and analysis across the Internet. Yet, there continue to be gaps in our vision, players that go completely unseen for weeks or months by public facing writing. There was nothing on Johan Rojas’ stat page last offseason that would have made you predict he would be a top 10 prospect a year later (though he did hit very well as a 17 year old in the DSL). The Phillies’ dearth of talent in Extended Spring Training and early in the GCL season did not make them a destination scouting location. Many of the reports from those locations would filter out once Rojas arrived in Williamsport. Mitch Rupert of the Williamsport Sun Gazette was the first public facing person to draw attention to Rojas, and just from grainy video it is easy to see why. Rojas is an explosive athlete, a plus plus runner who already plays the outfield with reckless abandon. He has great bat speed, and the ball will jump off his bat. He also is extremely raw, which is why he is not being pushed as one of the very top prospects in the system. He currently has large contact problems at the plate due to an approach that involves swinging very hard at a lot of pitches. His swing mechanics are not consistent, and he is going to need to quiet them. Even with his obvious holes, there is a lot of optimism because he is so inexperienced. The 2019 season was just Rojas 2nd pro season, and he didn’t turn 19 until late in the summer. He was not a big time July 2 prospect, so he is just starting to see upper level competition. Then there is the defense. Rojas projects to be at minimum a plus defensive center fielder, and that kind of banked outcome gives him a high floor and gives him time for the offensive skill set to come around. If everything clicks, there is a chance he is a solid hitter with plus power and large defensive value. There is a chance that the hit tool never comes around, and he is more of a Michael A. Taylor typeplayer, who is a solid 4th OF because of his glove and pop, but ultimately cannot hit enough to play everyday. Rojas’ early season stats in Lakewood are going to be one of the most watched things in the 2020 season.
2020 Outlook: Rojas held his own enough to earn a start in Lakewood for 2020. Given the move to full season ball, and how pitcher friendly the park is, his numbers could look ugly at times.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: UR
10. Damon Jones, LHP
Age: 25 Acquired: 18th Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’5” 225lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A+) | 11 | 11 | 4-3 | 58.1 | 1.54 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 10.4% | 38.1% |
| REA (AA) | 4 | 4 | 1-0 | 22 | 0.82 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 11.1% | 38.3% |
| LHV (AAA) | 8 | 8 | 0-1 | 34 | 6.62 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 16.5% | 20.9% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter, Late Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – Jones has the two pitch mix to be effective in a bullpen now, but he also potentially has the 3 pitch mix to start. His control needs work to have success, but he has made large strides in the area in recent years.
Summary: Of the high upside pitchers the Phillies took with late picks in the 2017 draft, Jones has taken the largest step forward. When drafted, he had some arm strength and big control problems. Thanks to hard work and some help from Driveline Baseball, Jones has reworked his body and his delivery. He is much more athletic, and his fastball now sits 90 to 96. He backs it up with a two plane slurvy slider (he can turn it into more of a curveball) that is a plus pitch. His changeup exists, but it is a clear third pitch. All of Jones’ pitches play up thanks to good extension that makes them appear to get on the hitters quicker than expected. Control is still a problem for Jones, who struggles to repeat his delivery and can have problems when hitters don’t chase out of the zone. Given that he is already 25 and his changeup is not really a viable 3rd major league pitch, the Phillies may move Jones to the bullpen quickly if he struggles in AAA soon. If his stuff plays up in the bullpen, he could be a dominant multi-inning reliever. If he can stick in the rotation, he has a chance to be a #3/#4 starter who does not work deep into games, but racks up a ton of strikeouts.
2020 Outlook: Jones likely returns to Lehigh Valley as a starting pitcher, and will be one of the guys the Phillies consider early and often when they have pitching needs. What role he plays in the majors is dependent on what kind of spot opens up.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: UR
During the Phillies rebuild years the system was full of high minors starting pitchers a break or two away from being a major league contributor. So far the Phillies have been pretty poor at getting those guys across the finish line, with only Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, and Vince Velasquez hanging around as reclamation projects now. The Phillies have a fresh set of interesting pitchers to have another attempt at developing into at least useful major league starters. I do want to call out the hitters in the 11 to 13 group, at minimum 11 and 12 are in the same tier as the back of the top 10 prospects.
11. Simon Muzziotti, CF
Age: 21 Acquired: 2016 International Free Agent (2015 International Free Agent signed with Boston voided by commissioner punishment)
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’1” 175lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A+) | 110 | 465 | 3 | 21 | 6.9% | 12.9% | .287 | .337 | .372 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Muzziotti’s glove is major league ready, and he might have the bat the ball skills to make contact now. To be an everyday starter, Muzziotti is going to need to make hard enough contact to at least put the ball in gaps, and right now he does not have that strength.
Summary: The surface level connections between Muzziotti and former Phillies prospect Carlos Tocci are unavoidable. They are both skinny, low strength, Venezuelan center fielders. Muzziotti is more compact than Tocci was and has a better feel for contact. The lack of strength part is definitely true, and Muzziotti does not have a frame that projects to add much power as he matures. He is a plus runner which allows him to turn balls into the gaps into extra base hits. He can get a bit swing happy, but has a solid feel for the strike zone. In the field, he is a good center fielder, who should be at least plus in the long run. His arm was a liability when he signed initially with the Red Sox, but it is now a positive for him. It is unlikely that Muzziotti will ever be an impact player in the majors, but given his glove and contact abilities, he could be a solid regular on a playoff team for much of his career.
2020 Outlook: Given his age and lack of mature physicality, it is likely that Muzziotti just spends the whole year in Reading manning center field. He is likely to see less of an effect on his offensive numbers than some of his more power hitting counterparts.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 12
12. Kendall Simmons, IF
Age: 19 Acquired: 6th Rd, 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’2” 180lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| WPT (SS) | 51 | 205 | 12 | 5 | 9.8% | 26.3% | .234 | .330 | .520 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Extreme – Simmons has shown plenty of contact issues at multiple levels, and only a very small time period of putting things all together in Williamsport. He isn’t a polished defender, but he showed enough in 2019 that he should be able to stick on the infield, which takes a lot of pressure off of his offensive performance.
Summary: The Phillies split the money saved on Alec Bohm between two raw high upside high schoolers, Dominic Pipkin and Kendall Simmons. Simmons was a shortstop with a good arm and big raw power. He has an ideal frame for projectable growth and is athletic enough to stay on the infield. His actions and instincts are far from ideal at shortstop, but he has shown more aptitude at second and third base, and it looks like he should be able to stay on the infield. Simmons has plenty of bat speed and is able to use it to generate plus raw power. He has some large contact issues at the plate, but the Williamsport coaches were able to help quiet his swing at the plate, which allowed him to really take off in the second half of the season (.169/.235/.324 4BB:27K before July 27, and .280/.398/.660 16BB:27K after). The midseason improvements bode well for Simmmons’ future, because he still has a lot of swing and miss he needs to reduce in his game. He is still young and he is still far away, but he could be a power first 2B/3B with the right amount of growth. There is a small chance things click even more for him, and given his raw power and athleticism, he could suddenly explode as a top prospect.
2020 Outlook: Simmons should start the year in Lakewood, and possibly move around the infield more than stick at a single position. If his late surge in Williamsport is real, he could get a midseason bump to Clearwater.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 30
13. Nick Maton, SS
Age: 23 Acquired: 7th Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: L/R H/W: 6’1” 165lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A+) | 93 | 384 | 5 | 11 | 10.7% | 18.5% | .276 | .358 | .380 |
| REA (AA) | 21 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 12.5% | 19.4% | .210 | .306 | .355 |
| AFL | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 7.7% | 46.2% | .333 | .385 | .667 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Medium – Maton plays good enough defense to play all over the infield, which should allow him to stick on a major league bench. His bat is a little light for an everyday role, but he has shown power growth over the past season, giving hope he might have enough impact to start for stretches.
Summary: Part of what is looking like a loaded 2017 draft, Maton has flown under the radar for the most part. He does not hit for a ton of power, but the strength gains he made mean he might get to that 8-12 home runs a year range. He is athletic, but not a burner or good base stealer. He makes a good amount of contact, but won’t be a batting champion. He has improved his approach and walks at a plus rate, though he could afford to cut down on his strikeouts. The biggest improvement he may have made is becoming a competent defender at shortstop. He won’t win a gold glove, but he could plausibly play there for a stretch when a team doesn’t have a better option. It is hard to see him being a long term starter, but he should be able to play second and third base as well, making him the type of bench player who ends up with 300-400 plate appearances by the end of the year. Despite his youthful appearance, Maton is 23, so he isn’t a high upside kid waiting to break out. He is a long shot to contribute in 2020, especially given the new September rules, but he could make the team as soon as opening day 2021.
2020 Outlook: Maton barely played in AA, so he will start his year off as one of the primary infielders in Reading. He will need to be added to the 40 man roster during the offseason, so a good spring and summer could see him supplant one of the major league veterans on the Phillies’ bench.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: 33
14. Connor Seabold, RHP
Age: 24 Acquired: 3rd Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’2” 190lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| GCL (Rk) | 3 | 3 | 0-1 | 7.1 | 3.68 | 8.6 | 0 | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| CLW (A+) | 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3.1% | 31.3% |
| REA (AA) | 7 | 7 | 3-1 | 40 | 2.25 | 7.9 | 0.5 | 6.3% | 22.8% |
| AFL | 4 | 4 | 1-0 | 17 | 1.06 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 4.8% | 35.5% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Medium – Seabold is almost major league ready, he just needs some more polishing. He has enough fastball velocity to not be as risky as some of the Phillies back end arms, but he will need to rely on his secondary pitches and command to have major league success.
Summary: Late in the 2018 season, the Phillies pitching coach staff in Reading cleaned up Connor Seabold’s delivery, and the right hander looked poised to contribute in 2019. This year did not go to plan, however. Seabold missed a couple of months to an oblique injury, and then was limited for another month as he had to have Spring Training over the summer. Much like Spencer Howard, the Phillies sent Seabold to the AFL to build up innings, but he ended the year woefully short. On the mound, Seabold now sits 90-94 with his fastball and can reach back for 95. His breaking ball and changeup are solid pitches, but neither currently projects as plus. With his simplified delivery, Seabold’s plus control comes through more, and he shows the ability to use all of his pitches throughout the strike zone. His lack of a dominant pitch limits him to a backend starter ceiling, but he could be a solid innings eating #4 as soon as 2021, and a major league contributor in some role in 2020 as he rebuilds his innings load.
2020 Outlook: Given the log jam in front of him and his limited innings in 2019, the Phillies are likely to send Seabold back to Reading to open the 2020 season. He likely will be in AAA early in the season, and whether he reaches the majors will likely depend on team need.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 24
15. Erik Miller, LHP
Age: 22 Acquired: 4th Rd, 2019 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’5” 240lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| GCL (Rk) | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 3.0 | 3.00 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 15.4% | 46.2% |
| WPT (SS) | 6 | 4 | 0-0 | 20.0 | 0.90 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 8.1% | 33.7% |
| LKW (A-) | 7 | 7 | 1-0 | 13.0 | 2.08 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 10.9% | 30.9% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: High – Miller has shown high impact pitches in his past, but the rebuilt base fits in more at the back of a bullpen. Miller still needs to throw strikes and have consistency with his secondary pitches over a full season.
Summary: Miller was a popular “steal” in the draft for the Phillies. During his junior year and in the Cape Cod League, Miller flashed a fastball up to 97, a plus slider, and an above average changeup. The problem was his control and consistency. Miller walked 5 batters per 9 at Stanford, and at times during the year the secondary pitches disappeared and his fastball barely broke 90. Miller admitted in pro ball that he could not maintain the higher velocity and locate his pitches. The Phillies worked with him on his delivery, and he has shown much better control, but his fastball has been more in the low 90s, topping out at 94. His secondary pitches were also not as good as they flashed at times in college. Right now, Miller looks more like a backend starter along the lines of Ranger Suarez, JoJo Romero, or Cole Irvin. If he is able to maintain the gains in control he made with the Phillies while regaining some of the high end stuff he has flashed in the past, Miller’s stock could rocket up as a high end #3 starter. There was some thought that Miller could move faster as a reliever, but that does not appear to be a path the Phillies are pursuing right now.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies bumped Miller to Lakewood for a couple of starts at the end of the year, so he is almost certainly headed to Clearwater to open the season. If he pitches well there, he could end the year in AA.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: N/A
16. Cristopher Sanchez, LHP
Age: 23 Acquired: Traded from the Rays to the Phillies for Curtis Mead (11/20/19)
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’5” 165lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| BG (A-) | 11 | 4 | 3-1 | 40.1 | 2.01 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 6.8% | 22.8% |
| CHA (A+) | 12 | 6 | 1-0 | 34 | 1.85 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 9.4% | 25.9% |
| DUR (AAA) | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 1.1 | 20.25 | 47.4 | 0.0 | 28.6% | 0.0% |
Role: #3 Starter/High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Extreme – In many ways we really don’t know who Sanchez is as a pitcher. Last year was both his first year in full season ball and his first year showing major league caliber pitches. He has neither had a starters workload or been used as a high leverage reliever. The Phillies are likely to start him in a rotation.
Summary: The byproduct of a strong farm system is that guys with high risk and long lead times can find themselves on the outside come Rule 5 time. In this case, the Rays strength is the Phillies gain, as they shipped an interesting prospect in Curtis Mead out to the Rays for Sanchez on the protection deadline eve. Sanchez was a surprise out of nowhere prospect, having never pitched in full season ball before 2019, despite it being his age 22 season. His quick rise (all the way to AAA) was thanks to a large velocity jump that saw him sitting 94 to 98 by the end of the year and reportedly touching 100. His slider shows promise, but needs work. However, his changeup is flashing plus potential. Sanchez’s control is indicative of a pitcher with limited high minors development. When the Phillies traded for Sanchez, there was a lot of thought they would just move him to the bullpen given his age, but their current plans appear to be to have him work as a starting pitcher. Given how raw he is and his arm strength, his upside in a rotation is very tantalizing. If the starting experiment doesn’t work, the downside is merely that he gets some developmental innings, so the Phillies have little to lose in giving it a try.
2020 Outlook: Despite some early speculation that the Phillies might give him a chance to win a bullpen spot in Spring Training, the Phillies are sending Sanchez to Reading as a starting pitcher. Unless he can’t hold up in the role, the Phillies have every incentive to leave him in a rotation just to get high level innings, and then reassess his future next Spring.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: N/A
17. JoJo Romero, LHP
Age: 23 Acquired: 4th Rd, 2016 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 5’11” 190lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 11 | 11 | 4-4 | 57.2 | 4.84 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 5.1% | 21.9% |
| LHV (AAA) | 13 | 13 | 3-5 | 53.2 | 6.88 | 11.4 | 1.3 | 13.4% | 15.3% |
| AFL | 8 | 0 | 1-0 | 10.2 | 0.84 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 9.5% | 11.9% |
Role: Above Average Multi Inning Reliever/#4 Starter
Risk: Medium – If Romero can pitch at the level he pitched at in the Arizona Fall League, he should have success, but it was a small sample size and he didn’t miss bats. The biggest next step for him might just be to prove that he can actually get results.
Summary: Romero had a just ok year in 2018 in Reading, and in Spring Training last year his velocity was down, and yet the Phillies started him AAA. A nightmare of a season ensued, with Romero pitching more in the 88-91 range and his secondary pitches performing much worse than they did in previous years. He had a brief resurgence after a demotion to Reading, but he was still well behind where he was at his peak. The Phillies moved him to the bullpen for the Arizona Fall League and his velocity returned, earning him a spot on the 40 man roster this offseason. At his best, Romero will sit 89 to 93 and touch 95, and he will back it up with a plus changeup and a pair of average breaking balls. His control has slipped, but he had above average control in the past. The Phillies seem committed to leaving him in the bullpen for now, and if he can work in that higher velocity range, he could be a solid multi inning reliever. If he has success there, the Phillies could look to stretch him back out as a starter in the future.
2020 Outlook: Despite being on the 40 man roster, the Phillies don’t seem to be looking at Romero as an Opening Day option, meaning he will head to AAA and try to see if he can settle into the bullpen and have success in the role. Unless he bombs, he should get at least a cameo in the majors during the 2020 season.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: 6
18. Starlyn Castillo, RHP
Age: 18 Acquired: 2018 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’0” 210lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| GCL (Rk) | 5 | 4 | 0-2 | 9.1 | 7.71 | 9 | 0 | 17.8% | 22.2% |
Role: #3 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Castillo is an 18 year old pitcher with 9.1 professional innings. He also only has two viable pitches right now. Both those things means he is very risky and very far away.
Summary: Castillo was one of the top pitching prospects in the 2018 July 2 class. The Phillies sent him directly to the GCL, but untimely minor injuries limited his season. Castillo is not lanky or projectable, and is smaller and solidly built. At his best he will sit 92-96, touching 97, but he spent some of the year more down in the lower part of the range. His slider is his best secondary pitch and could be plus long term. His changeup needs plenty of work. Given that he is 18, the lost year does not cause his stock to plummet, but he will need to take a step forward in 2020. His upside is still a mid rotation starter, because his current stuff is still very impressive for a teenager.
2020 Outlook: A good 2019 season might have seen Castillo jump over Williamsport, but his 2019 season was essentially non-existent. Castillo likely will start the year in Extended Spring Training before heading to Williamsport.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 18
19. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP
Age: 24 Acquired: Traded from Padres to Phillies for Freddy Galvis (12/15/18)
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’3” 170bs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LHV (AAA) | 19 | 19 | 5-7 | 94 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 8.8% | 21.0% |
| PHI (MLB) | 5 | 1 | 0-1 | 11 | 7.36 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 10.9% | 19.6% |
Role: #4 Starter/Above Average Reliever
Risk: Medium – It was not that long ago that De Los Santos looked like a major league contributor. Unlike most prospects, his path to success is not through improvements as much as it is on just returning to where he was a year ago.
Summary: Coming into the 2019 season, the reports on De Los Santos had been pretty consistent, he had a plus fastball, above average to plus changeup, and a problem finding a good breaking ball. If he couldn’t develop a solid slider or curveball, he seemed destined for the bullpen, where it was expected that his stuff would play up. De Los Santos got off to a strong start in AAA, but spent most of April and May not pitching much and shuttling between the MLB bullpen and the AAA rotation. He was solid in June, but after a poor single start in the majors, the season went downhill. De Los Santos’ fastball was more below average than plus, and his control went backwards. Things went so poorly that he wasn’t a September call-up until the Phillies were desperate for another arm at the end of the month. The chances of De Los Santos starting are lower than they have ever been, and he is going to have to show that his slump was a fluke and not a trend in order to work in a bullpen. Enyel is running out of minor league options, so 2020 will be a make or break season for him.
2020 Outlook: Enyel is off to a slow start in camp because of a hamstring injury, which eliminates any chance he had to sneak in a major league opportunity out of camp. His year will almost certainly start in Lehigh Valley, and it might be in the bullpen.
ETA: 2018
Previous Rank: 7
20. Victor Santos, RHP
Age: 19 Acquired: 2016 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’1” 191lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LKW (A-) | 27 | 13 | 5-10 | 105.1 | 4.02 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 4.2% | 20.6% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Santos is very advanced for a teenage pitcher, and his split changeup gives him a real weapon going forward. There are not a lot of successful right handed starters with below average velocity, and that leaves him with no margin for error.
Summary: After a good 2018 season in the GCL, the Phillies aggressively pushed the 18 year old Santos to Lakewood in 2019. He spent most of the year tethered to Francisco Morales in the BlueClaws piggyback rotation, and despite an unsightly 5-10 record, he had an impressive year for someone of his age. Santos pitches beyond his years, he is a three pitch pitcher with good command. His fastball is below average, hovering around 90, and topping out at 93. He will throw a 2-seamer just a couple of miles per hour slower. His slider is a solid pitch, but his best pitch is a split changeup that just dives away from hitters. The problem with Santos is that, despite his youth, he is essentially physically mature, which leads to concerns about whether his profile actually works at his current velocity. Right now he profiles at the back end of a rotation, but he has enough floor between his control, feel for pitching, and changeup that a small uptick in velocity could translate to a larger uptick in outcome than most prospects. Santos crosses the 100 inning mark in 2019, so he should be unrestricted in any rotation he is in.
2020 Outlook: Santos was very good for an 18 year old in full season ball last year, so a promotion to Clearwater for the season seems like a logical next progression.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 28
If the last set of prospects represented the highs of the Phillies system, this group represents a but why it is thought so lowly of. The Phillies have a number of interesting catching prospects, with 4 of them here, and while they all might be major league contributors, and some regulars, but relying on the future to come from young hitters still in short season ball is not confidence inspiring. There are also reminders of the promise of yesterday that has not worked out, in guys like Jhailyn Ortiz and Mauricio Llovera who took steps back in 2019. It isn’t that these prospects or bad, but there is a soft part of the Phillies system where there is not a second wave of depth that isn’t four years away.
21. Jamari Baylor, SS
Age: 19 Acquired: 3rd Rd, 2019 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 5’11” 190lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| GCL (Rk) | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 16.7% | .273 | .333 | .455 |
Role: Solid Regular at a Middle Infield Position
Risk: Extreme – Baylor is a high school hitter with an extremely small pro track record, so any definitive statement about his future is coming from a very small sample size.
Summary: Baylor popped up late in the Spring when his tools all took a jump, especially at the plate. He is a good athlete and showed the ability to make consistent contact thanks to a quicker bat. This also has led to him showing at least average power, especially to his pull side. Baylor is a plus runner and has a good arm, but like many high school shortstops, many people believe he is likely to move off of the position. The most likely position to move to would be second base, but he probably could handle a move anywhere on the diamond. Injuries in the GCL restricted Baylor to just 4 games (2 soon after he signed, and 2 at the end of the year), so there was not much chance to see what he would look like against good pitchers. There is a lot to be excited about with Baylor, but he has a limited track record of success, so he is riskier than most already risky high school hitters.
2020 Outlook: Baylor played very little in pro-ball, and Lakewood likely has middle infielders for 2020, so he likely will start in Extended Spring Training before heading to Williamsport.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: N/A
22. Mauricio Llovera, RHP
Age: 23 Acquired: 2014 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 5’11” 200lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 14 | 12 | 3-4 | 65.1 | 4.55 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 9.8% | 25.3% |
Role: #4 Starter/Late Inning Reliever
Risk: High – Llovera has shown the pitches to profile in either role, but his injury and loss of stuff last year casts doubt on whether he will ever be at the level he was at in the past.
Summary: Even though his future job may be in the bullpen, the Phillies decided that for now Llovera will stay in the rotation. An arm injury in early July sapped some of the electricity from the stocky righty’s arm before it ended his season prematurely. In the rotation, Llovera has been 92-95, touching 97. His secondary pitches lack consistency, with his slider getting flat at times, and his splitter flashes plus potential, just not every pitch. If he does move to the bullpen, it is likely he has a pitch mix similar to Hector Neris where he leans on the splitter and fastball, only throwing a slider occasionally to throw off a hitter. Llovera can throw the ball in the strike zone, but he is not a command pitcher, hitting quadrants of the zone and not spots. He is a fairly stocky guy and his delivery has some effort to it, and that has made a lot of people speculate that the bullpen is the better place for him. The last time he was in that role, he was more 94-97 touching 99, and there is some thought that the added power would help his secondary pitches as well. For now, the Phillies have some AAA RP depth ahead of him, so they can give the rotation thing one more chance. If he can stick in a rotation, he might have a low end 3, high end 4 starter upside. Much of the spring will be about where his arm health is.
2020 Outlook: While Llovera’s long term role might be in a bullpen, the Phillies seem committed to having him be a starting pitcher this spring, so a return trip to Reading is at least his first stop. If he struggles in the rotation, they could move him to the bullpen before the end of the year.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 15
23. Ethan Lindow, LHP
Age: 21 Acquired: 5th Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: R/L H/W: 6’3” 180lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LKW(A-) | 23 | 13 | 5-2 | 94.2 | 2.66 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 5.2% | 27.0% |
| CLW (A+) | 3 | 3 | 0-2 | 16 | 1.69 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 3.0% | 24.2% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Lindow has the secondary pitch repertoire of an advanced arm, but his fastball remains below average.In order to be a long term contributor, he will either need to be an outlier in terms of his command and pitch mixing, or he will need to experience velocity growth in the next few years.
Summary: It is really easy to look at high school pitchers and assume they will just add velocity as they mature. It is supposed to be harder to develop things like changeups and control. For Lindow it has been the complete opposite. His fastball is just more consistent than high school, but that means he sits 87 to 90, touching 91. He has a solid curveball, an above average changeup, and a good slider (or cutter). He can mix all four pitches, and his command is advanced for a pitcher of his age. Overall, his feel for pitching and his control on the mound is impressive. However, his below average velocity holds back his whole profile. Right now Lindow profiles at the back of a rotation, with a low end #4 ceiling. If he were to add 3 mph and be in the 90 to 94, touch 95 range of some of the other Phillies arms he would profile more as a #3. Lindow won’t turn 22 until after the season, so it is not unreasonable that he still could make those gains. The Phillies were aggressive with his promotion last year, and they could be so again this year as his stuff is unlikely to be challenged in the low minors.
2020 Outlook: Lindow dominated Lakewood and was good in Clearwater, but it was only 3 starts, so it seems he will open the season there with a promotion to Reading imminent if he dominates low level hitters again.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 45
24. Kyle Glogoski, RHP
Age: 21 Acquired: 2017 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’2” 183lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LKW (A-) | 8 | 3 | 3-1 | 27.2 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 7.6% | 42.5% |
| CLW (A+) | 11 | 11 | 2-2 | 52.2 | 1.88 | 5.8 | 0.3 | 9.2% | 20.7% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Glogoski is still fairly new to high level pitching, and his stuff is not overwhelming. He will need to continue the growth he has had in his first two seasons in order to have a major league career.
Summary: The Phillies signed Glogoski out of New Zealand before the 2018 season. He is one of the first teenage prospects from the country, and he did not have a ton of experience pitching, and very little against top level competition, before he signed. He was interesting, but not special in his first season. After an offseason of pitching in the ABL for Auckland, he forced his way to Lakewood with a good Extended Spring Training. He didn’t stay there for long, forcing his way to Clearwater after 8 games. He had less success there, walking more batters and striking out fewer. His stuff is still not overwhelming. His fastball will sit 88 to 92. His curveball shows some makings of an average pitch, but his changeup took a step forward in 2019. He has solid control and a surprising feel for the game given his background. He just turned 21 and still has some room in his body to fill out some. The interesting source of potential growth for Glogoski is his background. He has had less time than most of his peers to develop his offspeed pitches. He probably will move a bit slower going forward than he did in 2019.
2020 Outlook: Glogoski made 11 successful starts in Clearwater, so a promotion to Reading would not be too aggressive. However, he might need to wait for the log jam in front of him to clear up a bit, making a May or June promotion to AA after a Clearwater start more likely.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: UR
25. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
Age: 21 Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’3” 215
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A+) | 115 | 478 | 19 | 2 | 7.5% | 31.2% | .200 | .272 | .381 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Ortiz has a boom/bust profile. If he makes enough contact, he is going to hit a bunch of home runs in the middle of a team’s lineup. If he continues his current pitch recognition and contact problems, he won’t reach the majors at all.
Summary: Before he even signed with the Phillies, Ortiz’s pitch recognition was drawing questions from scouts. There have been some whispers about eye issues, but offseason LASIK did not help Ortiz put a dent in his strikeout rate. He still has enormous raw power and just turned 21 at the start of the offseason. Ortiz doesn’t need to completely solve his contact issues to have a major league future, but he needs to reverse recent trends soon to show he has any hope of putting things together. His defense, and in particular his future defensive position as he gets slower and thicker, is still a question for some, but he has done a great job keeping in shape as he has matured. There have been enough late bloomers to not write off Ortiz until he is in his late 20s, but things are not looking rosy.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies aggressively pushed Ortiz last year after a poor year, but the jump to AA is larger than the jump between A ball levels, so it is likely they hold him back to repeat Clearwater until he has some success.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 14
26. Deivy Grullon, C
Age: 24 Acquired: 2012 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’1” 180lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LHV (AA) | 108 | 457 | 21 | 1 | 9.0% | 29.1% | .283 | .354 | .496 |
| PHI (MLB) | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | .111 | .111 | .222 |
Role: Backup Catcher
Risk: Low – Grullon is almost a finished product and major league backup right now. There are still a few areas of improvement in his receiving, but he is ready for a major league role now.
Summary: After his prospect status came back from near death last year, Grullon followed up with another solid minor league season. He is a big strong hitter with plus power from a stiff swing. His contact abilities can be suspect, and his strikeout rate skyrocketed in AAA. He did show the ability to draw a walk, but it is not a skill he has ever shown consistently in his career. Behind the plate, Grullon has never graded out well on framing metrics, despite a good reputation when he was younger. He is not an oaf, but he is also not overly athletic, and it shows in his receiving and blocking. He is still a solid defender and probably will see a big boost in receiving working more with the MLB catching coaches. His arm is still at least plus plus, though he needs to shorten his transfer and release some. He has too many holes to be an everyday player behind the plate, but he has a chance to be a capable backup as soon as the Phillies find themselves needing one.
2020 Outlook: Grullon is firmly entrenched as the Phillies 3rd catcher, and given how much J.T. Realmuto plays, he won’t be called on much unless there is an injury.
ETA: 2019
Previous Rank: 19
27. Juan Aparicio, C
Age: 19 Acquired: 2016 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 5’11” 175lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| WPT (SS) | 32 | 121 | 1 | 3 | 7.4% | 18.2% | .374 | .446 | .570 |
| LKW (A-) | 22 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 4..1% | 25.7% | .191 | .230 | .279 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – There is a lot to like about Aparicio’s potential offensive upside as a catcher, however it is never a positive sign when a teenager’s ability to stick behind the plate is a large question. There is a lot of development ahead for Aparicio, but he needs to remain mostly at catcher for it to be meaningful.
Summary: The Phillies seem to sign a Latin American catcher each year who can just hit. Aparicio, a big money signing in 2016, is not the latest, but the thick Venzuelan was probably the loudest of the group in 2019. A converted infielder, Aparicio is not a great defender behind the plate, but he shows enough tools there to possibly stick there long term. At the plate, Aparicio is one of the guys that just hits. He strikes out a bit much and at times doesn’t walk consistently, but he makes plenty of hard contact. Aparicio has solid power, but won’t be a huge home run hitter. However, he had a monster 33% line drive percent with Williamsport, and he just peppers the gaps for doubles and triples. He was much poorer with Lakewood to end the year, but it does little to knock Aparicio’s long term outlook. Given his defensive limitations, it is likely that Aparicio continues to get reps at first base (especially since he is likely to be sharing a level with at least two other catching prospects in 2020), and while his bat won’t work there as a full time position, he is a guy who could play C/1B/DH once the DH comes to the NL.
2020 Outlook: Aparicio only got a slight look at Lakewood in 2019, so a return trip splitting time once again with Logan O’Hoppe makes sense for both players.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: UR
28. Jonathan Guzman, SS
Age: 20 Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’0” 156lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LKW (A-) | 123 | 514 | 3 | 31 | 6.2% | 18.9% | .251 | .298 | .316 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: High – Guzman has the defensive skills to be a plus defender at both middle infield positions. The problem remains his bat, which continues to be well below average due to a lack of strength, and while young, he lacks the frame to put on a bunch of muscle.
Summary: Even as we continue to improve in baseball analysis and see players for the individuals that they are, there are certain types of players that will always exist. Just like the crafty lefty starter, or the power arm fastball/slider reliever with questionable control, there will always be the shortstop with the great glove that can’t hit. Guzman doesn’t have major contact issues, he can draw a walk, and he is fast. What he isn’t is strong. He has poor raw power, and there is not a lot of hope that he could ever exceed below average. It might be just enough to make it work if his glove plays to its best. Guzman is a plus defender at shortstop and second base (he traded reps on the middle infield with Luis Garcia). If given a full year of games, there is a chance that Guzman might give league average overall value, but not many contending teams give an everyday spot to an offensive black hole. With 26 man rosters, there is a clear path to a utility infielder ceiling given his defense and speed. He just needs to be a better hitter than Michael Martinez.
2020 Outlook: Guzman hit pretty well at Lakewood given his physical limitations, so there is little need to hold him back for another year. He probably splits time in the middle infield with Bryson Stott in Clearwater.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 20
29. Andrick Nava,C
Age: 18 Acquired: 2018 International Free Agent
B/T: S/R H/W: 5’11” 175lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| GCL (Rk) | 44 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 4.8% | 12.0% | .314 | .349 | .372 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Nava hit extremely well for a 17 year old in the GCL regardless of position. He is a teenage catcher, so his developmental timeline is still extremely long, and he already has worries about his ability to stick behind the plate.
Summary: The Phillies have opted to send their top July 2 catchers to the Dominican Summer League for a season of seasoning before bringing them stateside. However, Nava forced the issue and proved to be one of the best pure hitters in the GCL at age 17. A switch hitter, Nava shows an advanced feel for contact, and while he doesn’t show much game power now, he shows raw power, and it will translate to games as he matures. He is not a great defender yet, but he shows enough tools to possibly stick behind the plate long term. Given the catching depth in Lakewood, it is likely that Nava will start in Extended Spring Training before being one of the top players for the Williamsport Crosscutters.
2020 Outlook: Nava’s offensive output in the GCL might lead the Phillies to push him to Lakewood, but the level is already going to have multiple of his similarly ranked catching prospects. The more likely outcome is that the Phillies will keep him back in Extended Spring Training and then send him to Williamsport.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: UR
30. Logan O’Hoppe, C
Age: 20 Acquired: 23rd Rd, 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’2” 185lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| WPT (SS) | 45 | 177 | 5 | 3 | 6.8% | 27.7% | .216 | .266 | .407 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – High school catchers are one of the riskiest groups of prospects because of the long development track. O’Hoppe should stick behind the plate, but he has some offensive holes that could derail him.
Summary: The Phillies have had a lot of success drafting players out of Long Island, and O’Hoppe, a late round overslot selection, is no exception. He plays defense well enough to stick behind the plate, but he can be stiff receiving and blocking and profiles as more of an average defender long term. The same stiffness carries over onto the offensive side, where O’Hoppe’s swing can get slow and uppercutting. He can work a count some, but his swing and miss is slightly concerning. O’Hoppe does have a solid idea of what he is doing at the plate and worked with the Williamsport coaches on working the other way, so he wasn’t just trying to pull everything. This looks like a lot of holes, but O’Hoppe has solid power and should make enough contact to make it work. Those skills coupled with the ability to stay at the position defensively give O’Hoppe a chance to be an everyday catcher. The Phillies have a lot of catchers in their system, but O’Hoppe should get plenty of at bats at DH to make up for lost time. He could also be a trade target for other teams looking to take advantage of the Phillies’ depth.
2020 Outlook: O’Hoppe hit well enough at Williamsport to move up a level to Lakewood. He will play a bunch of catcher, but is likely to see time at other positions in order to get offensive reps while the other catchers get some time behind the plate.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 23
The Phillies have not been particularly good at development over most of my lifetime. During the Amaro and Gillick years it was rare that early draft picks, let alone late picks turned into interesting prospects. The Phillies haven’t become a draft or development powerhouse overnight, they probably are still below average to average in development. What they have done under Matt Klentak and Johnny Almaraz is become much more interesting in the draft. The 2017 draft is the crowning example, with Day 1 and 2 picks like Adam Haseley, Spencer Howard, Connor Seabold, Nick Maton, and Ethan Lindow having name recognition with fans. However, that draft saw them take a bunch of unheralded players who dot this top 50. But that has expanded to taking high schoolers later in the draft and getting upside at little risk. It also has seen the Phillies expand the number of non-drafted free agents they have signed, and had those numbers include not just college players, but high schoolers too. In an ideal world these low investment moves will start to pay off with an improved farm system for the Phillies, but for now a lot of those players are still far away or unestablished, and it is up to the Phillies development to catch up with talent acquisition.
31. Kyle Dohy, LHP
Age: 23 Acquired: 16th Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’2” 188lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 6 | 0 | 1-0 | 11 | 0.82 | 1.6 | 0 | 12.8% | 56.4% |
| LHV (AAA) | 41 | 0 | 6-5 | 56.2 | 6.19 | 9 | 0.6 | 18.8% | 28.8% |
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: High – Dohy’s stuff could be dominant in the majors, but he is going to need to throw strikes. That is easier said than done, given he has zero track record of even average command.
Summary: If you want to argue that at his best, Kyle Dohy has the best stuff of any Phillies pitching prospect not named Spencer Howard, I am not sure you will find much disagreement. His fastball will sit in the mid 90s with good extension, his slider is plus and has good two plane break, and he will occasionally top it off with a surprisingly good changeup. The problem that continues to haunt Dohy is his control. He can get inexperienced hitters to expand the zone, but good ones will just wait him out and take their walks. Dohy is athletic, and so there is some hope that continued reps and coaching will get his control to at least average. If he can just give hitters the threat that he will put one in the strike zone, he could have a very solid major league career as an infuriating 7th inning guy. If the control ever clicks, he could be a dominant closer almost overnight. For now, he will need to work through his issues while some of his teammates pass him by.
2020 Outlook: Dohy will start his year in AAA, and the Phillies will give him plenty of opportunities to improve his command. If he can throw strikes for an extended period of time, the Phillies will likely push him up to the majors.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: 29
32. Cole Irvin, LHP
Age: 26 Acquired: 5th Rd, 2016 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’4” 180lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LHV (AAA) | 17 | 18 | 6-1 | 93.2 | 3.94 | 10.9 | 1.3 | 3.5% | 16.2% |
| PHI (MLB) | 16 | 3 | 2-1 | 41.2 | 5.83 | 9.9 | 1.5 | 7.2% | 17.1% |
Role: #6 Starter/Middle Reliever
Risk: Low – Irvin has a mature pitch mix and solid control. He showed at times in 2019 that he can stick around the fringes of a MLB roster.
Summary: The line between being a prospect and being an afterthought can be razor thin. Following the 2017 season, Irvin was climbing prospect lists because his fastball was consistently 91 to 93, touching 95. However, the 2018 and 2019 seasons saw Irvin hovering more around 90 mph, often sitting in the 80s. However, in September Irvin came roaring back in a bullpen role. His velocity was back where it was in 2017, and he allowed 1 run in 12.1 innings. Irvin isn’t all just fastball, his profile is built on control and a 4 pitch mix with his changeup, slider, and curveball (though he started to de-emphasize the curve in the bullpen). Strikeouts are always going to be a concern for Irvin, because he lacks a putaway pitch, but at his best he does manage to keep hitters off balance and generate weak contact. It seems like the Phillies will give him another shot in the rotation, and if the velocity holds back in the higher range, he profiles as an innings eating #4/#5. If he can’t hold it, the Phillies might be better served putting him back in the bullpen and seeing if he can give them similar production to what Ranger Suarez did in 2019, or hope a full time move sees him take the same leap that Adam Morgan did.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies seem to be giving Irvin a chance to prove himself in the rotation to open the season. If his stuff is where it was at the end of 2019 they might leave him there, if not he could be shuttling up and down the Northeast Extension between the AAA and MLB bullpens.
ETA: 2019
Previous Rank: 35
33. Carlos De La Cruz, OF
Age: 20 Acquired: Non-drafted free agent 2017
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’8” 210
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LKW (A-) | 117 | 461 | 7 | 7 | 5.9% | 34.5% | .220 | .271 | .327 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – De La Cruz is all projection, and right now lacks substance. His hit tool could fail to materialize, he could fail to ever tap into his raw power, or he could just continue growing too tall to ever hit a baseball, the possibilities are near limitless.
Summary: Some players are raw because they have little high level baseball experience, and some are still learning how to play baseball with a new set of physical tools. Then there is De La Cruz, who has the physical build of a baby giraffe and only slightly more baseball experience. He is listed at 6’8”, but might be taller, and is extremely lanky. He shows at minimum plus raw power, but it is easy to see him having 70 to 80 grade power at full maturity. His hit tool is still well below average due to the natural holes inherent to such long arms, as well as pitch recognition still in early stages of development. He has enough bat speed to make contact in the long run, but he is probably never going to be a high batting average hitter. De La Cruz has a plus arm, ideal for right field. The Phillies have played him in all three outfield positions, and he is currently a good runner, making him currently, and possibly futurely, playable in center field. De La Cruz has some of the loudest tools and highest upside of any Phillies prospect, but there is a reason he stands out on a field, and it is because players like him rarely have success in the majors due to the problems that come with just being that tall.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies could have De La Cruz repeat Lakewood, or they could send him to Clearwater. The reports on his tools were better than his results, so a good spring could make the aggressive assignment more appealing.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: UR
34. Dominic Pipkin, RHP
Age: 20 Acquired: Rd 9, 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’4” 160lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LKW (A-) | 24 | 12 | 3-4 | 71.2 | 5.15 | 8.9 | 0.5 | 13.6% | 13.3% |
Role: #3 Starter, High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Pipkin is currently a projectable righty with a good fastball, and not a ton else. If he can develop solid secondary pitches he could be impactful in a rotation or bullpen, but the development path is still long.
Summary: With the starting pitchers piggybacking in Lakewood, the Phillies were able to aggressively push Pipkin to the BlueClaws. Pipkin struggled with the aggressive assignment, but his talent was evident. Pipkin lacks polish, control, and consistency but he throws hard (up to 98) and has a projectable frame that could see him add another couple miles per hour to his fastball. In addition to his fastball, Pipkin shows some feel for a slider and changeup, but they still need plenty of work. With growth, he could be a mid rotation starter, however there are still a lot of hurdles to cross. Given his velocity and lack of a three pitch mix, it is likely that Pipkin ends up in the bullpen, but the Phillies will keep him in the rotation to see if he can continue to show progress.
2020 Outlook: Given how aggressive they were with him to open the 2019 year, the Phillies could send Pipkin back to Lakewood to open the year. If they do, a midseason promotion to Clearwater would put him back ahead of schedule.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 37
35. Manuel Silva, LHP
Age: 21 Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’2” 145lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LKW (A-) | 23 | 12 | 6-6 | 89.2 | 3.61 | 6.5 | 0.3 | 9.6% | 21.8% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Silva still has a lot of development ahead, but he has a projectable frame and the three pitch mix to grow into a back end starter role.
Summary: The Phillies have taken things slow with Silva, moving him a level per year through his 4 seasons. The lanky Dominican lefty has made minor improvements each year. His velocity has taken another tiny step forward, but at low 90s touching 94-95 he is still only average, even for a lefty. His secondary pitches are also showing minor improvements, but neither has stepped forward as a dominant offering. Even with the piggy back rotation in Lakewood, Silva still set a career high in innings in 2019. A little improvement at a time and Silva might end up with three average pitches and profile as a back end starter. Silva is still skinny and might have some untapped velocity, but that isn’t necessarily a guarantee given his gradual growth to this point.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies have been taking things one level at a time for Silva, and given his slow growth to this point there is no reason to change that with anything but a year in Clearwater.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 25
36. Rodolfo Duran, C
Age: 22 Acquired: 2014 International Free Agent
B/T: R/R H/W: 5’9”
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A+) | 66 | 245 | 6 | 0 | 4.1% | 21.6% | .240 | .273 | .369 |
Role: Backup Catcher
Risk: High – Duran has the defensive chops to get most of the way to being a backup catcher. His offense, however, has been too streaky and inconsistent to count on.
Summary: Duran put himself on the map when he hit 18 home runs as a 20 year old in 2018 for Lakewood. The Dominican catcher’s follow up season for Clearwater got off to a poor start when he hit .137/.200/.137 in 14 April games. It wasn’t scorching, but he hit .269/.297/.434 until a late July injury ended his season early. Duran is never going to be confused for a patient hitter, and his uppercut heavy swing opens up a lot of holes in his swing that his bat speed can’t cover. Duran is not a large catcher, and his slight size has had scouts worry about his long term durability. What his size does not hold back is his power. While he was not as prolific in 2019, he has plenty of power to his pull side. On defense, Duran is a good receiver and has a plus arm. Ultimately, the contact struggles and lack of on base ability to offset the swing holes, relegate Duran to a backup profile. He has many similarities to Deivy Grullon when it comes to profile, but Duran is more athletic and should be a better defender.
2020 Outlook: If he is fully healthy, then Duran could get pushed to AA by the catching prospects coming up behind him. If he does start in Clearwater, a mid year promotion to Reading is not unreasonable.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 16
37. Kyle Young, LHP
Age: 22 Acquired: 22nd Rd, 2016 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’10” 205lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A+) | 4 | 4 | 1-3 | 21 | 4.29 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 1.2% | 29.8% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Young had a lot of growth still needed heading into the 2019 season, and while he showed improvement in April, his season ended abruptly when he had Tommy John surgery in May. He now will need to show improved stuff and arm health after missing a year of development in order to stay on track.
Summary: Young is definitely an anomaly on the mound. He is listed at 6’10”, but it is likely actually closer to 7’0”, and even with a few years of being in a professional strength and conditioning program, he still has a lot of filling out to do. Unlike most tall pitchers, Young possesses good athleticism and body control, which has led to much better strike throwing ability than many of his counterparts. He is not the hardest throwing pitcher, sitting mostly in the 89 to 91 range, but he did reportedly touch 93 last year. His secondary pitches are also fairly pedestrian, with his breaking ball being more of a loopy slurve and his changeup being more of an average pitch at best. Young also does not have the over the top delivery that is being prioritized by many organizations. What he does have is incredible extension due to his size, and he releases the ball much closer to the plate than most pitchers, allowing all of his pitches to play up. That coupled with his control gives him a role as a back end starter and at minimum left handed reliever. However, things are not quite that simple. Young’s size and projectable frame lends hope that someday he will be pitching more in the mid 90s with his fastball when he reaches physical maturity. If the secondary pitches were to improve as well, his ceiling would skyrocket. All of those sky high projections, along with what seems like his normal path, have been sidetracked a few times now. He missed a lot of the 2018 season to injury, and then a month into the 2019 season he had an arm injury that required Tommy John. He will miss much of the 2020 season, and will likely finish it having pitched right about 100 total innings in the last 3 years. For now, the hope is that he does come back healthy in 2020 and we can revisit the discussions of his major league role a year from now.
2020 Outlook: Young had Tommy John surgery last May, and likely won’t throw a pitch in a game until the summer at the earliest. The biggest priority for Young will be getting healthy and putting himself in a good place for the 2021 offseason.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 36
38. Gunner Mayer, RHP
Age: 19 Acquired: 5th Rd, 2019 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’6” 190lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| GCL (Rk) | 4 | 2 | 0-0 | 8.1 | 5.40 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 8.3% | 27.8% |
Role: #3 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Part of being bullish on Mayer’s upside is acknowledging how much growth is still needed. He has never completed a year as a starter, only shows a breaking ball, and is missing a changeup.
Summary: It is hard to judge Mayer as he currently is as a baseball player. He is a former infielder who just recently converted to pitching, and was young for a first year JuCo player, so he is still not done physically growing either. He is listed at 6’6” and is fairly skinny. The word projectable gets thrown around a lot, but there are clearly many places for Mayer to add muscle. He already has some arm strength, hitting up to 94 this spring and in the GCL. He has shown feel for a curveball and slider, but will need to develop a changeup. He is far from a finished product, and tall pitchers tend to have struggled syncing up their deliveries. Due to his projectability and athleticism, he is the definition of a high upside pitching project. He will take some time and the Phillies shut him down early after his debut, so a piggyback spot in the Lakewood rotation seems like the logical 2020 path.
2020 Outlook: Given his newness to pitching, the Phillies will likely keep Mayer’s inning total down in 2020. They could let a piggy back system in Lakewood keep the numbers down on it’s own, or they could be more aggressive by either starting him in Extended Spring Training or shutting him down early. Either way it is likely a summer on the Jersey shore for him.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: N/A
39. Andrew Schultz, RHP
Age: 22 Acquired: 6th Rd, 2019 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’4” 195lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| GCL (Rk) | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LKW (A-) | 11 | 0 | 0-2 | 10 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 0.9 | 17.0% | 28.3% |
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Schultz has elite closer upside, but he might also not throw enough strikes to make it to AA.
Summary: There is not a lot of subtlety or nuance to Schultz’s profile on the mound. He has an electric fastball that sits 95-99, touching 100+. His slider flashed at least plus, but is still very inconsistent. Schultz has a front end closer upside, but he fell to the 6th round of the draft because his control might be optimistically called poor. Schultz has an extremely short arm action and throws with a decent amount of effort. Schultz is athletic and rebuilt his delivery before his junior year of college, so there is a chance the Phillies can help him find a delivery and consistency to command his pitches some. Most college relievers are fairly quick moving through pro ball, but it might take a few seasons for Schultz to work through his issues. Once things click, Schultz could arrive in the majors very quickly.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies pushed Schultz to Lakewood to end the 2019 season, and a move to Clearwater to open the year seems likely. He might see Reading by the end of the season, but will probably spend plenty of time in Florida.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: N/A
40. Connor Brogdon, RHP
Age: 25 Acquired: 10th Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’6” 192lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A+) | 10 | 0 | 2-0 | 20 | 1.80 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 6.7% | 30.7% |
| REA (AA) | 15 | 0 | 1-1 | 23.2 | 2.66 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 8.0% | 44.3% |
| LHV (AAA) | 26 | 0 | 3-1 | 32.1 | 3.06 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 9.0% | 33.1% |
Role: 6th/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Low – The Phillies almost brought Brogdon up at the end of last season, but opted not to carry him on the 40 man all winter. He is ready to contribute now for the Phillies.
Summary: After a transition year in 2018, the 2019 season saw Brogdon pitch full time as a reliever. He is a tall lanky righty who gets good extension on his pitches, especially his fastball, which has sat firmly 93 to 95, touching 96 out of the bullpen. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, but he does have a breaking ball as well. Brogdon’s plus control helps his whole arsenal play up. He should be ready to contribute to the major league bullpen in 2020, where he profiles as a 7th inning arm more than a closer.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies have a lot of relievers in camp and on the 40 man roster, so Brogdon is unlikely to be the first guy up, but he will be up at some point in 2020.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: UR
I realize that I have not written much this year, at least not here. I could write a bunch about how the Phillies system has some very interesting lottery tickets in the lower minors, or how the top has really disappointed this year. However, I think it is much more interesting to just talk about some players and what their future might look like. There are, as always, numbers in front of them so that I could avoid writing a novel. For those of you who have complained in the past, I have reversed the directionality of which I present it. I will maybe write about some of the guys who missed the list, but no promises.
41. Josh Stephen, OF
Age: 22 Acquired: 11th Rd, 2016 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’0” 185lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| REA (AA) | 113 | 403 | 12 | 7 | 9.7% | 27.3% | .271 | .342 | .483 |
| AFL | 11 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 7.7% | 17.9% | .250 | .308 | .306 |
Role: Platoon/4th OF
Risk: Medium – Stephen hit pretty well in AA as a 21 year old. He probably won’t hit enough to play everyday, but with expanded rosters there is more room for a left field only bench outfielder.
Summary: When the Phillies took Mickey Moniak #1 overall, spreading money around in the draft was one of the advantages they talked about. They opened Day 3 of the draft by giving Josh Stephen 3rd round money, proving their point. Stephen was considered to be one of the best HS hitters out of California that year. During his first three years in the Phillies system, he showed none of that promise. To open 2019, he skipped over Clearwater to Reading as a 4th outfielder due to injuries in the system. After playing sparingly the first two months, he would be a regular for the Fightins for the rest of the year. On the surface, 2019 was a huge breakout year for Stephen who held his own as a 21 year old in AA. Under the surface, there were some statistical problems. He was ghastly against lefties, hitting just .189/.274/.378. While his walk rate soared, so did his strikeout rate, with 27.3% representing a career high by far. Playing home games in Reading is always a factor, and his .357 BABIP is unsustainably high for a player of his skill set. That does not mean that Stephen did not experience growth in 2019. His swing looked better, and he did show a lot more ability to work counts and drive the ball. It is reasonable to think, given his swing that he can bring the strikeouts backs down (and he was able to do that during the second half). He should grow into at least average power. He is left field only defensively and probably should learn first base at some point to increase his positional flexibility. The combination of tools gives him MLB hitting upside, but not enough to be a regular in a corner. If a team can use him on the strong side of a platoon he has a path to a solid major league career.
2020 Outlook: Normally a player with Stephen’s AA stats would be a lock to move up to AAA, but with McCutchen’s injury the Phillies may keep AAA full with MLB roster filler to start the year. If he does get pushed down to AA, he should see AAA quickly into the season and he likely will finish his year there.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: UR
42. Brett Schulze, RHP
Age: 22 Acquired: 7th Rd, 2019 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’2” 180lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| GCL (Rk) | 2 | 0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | 3.3 | 0 | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| WPT (SS) | 10 | 5 | 0-0 | 23.2 | 0.38 | 8 | 0.4 | 15.1% | 32.1% |
Role: Above Average Reliever
Risk: High – Schulze has yet to pitch in full season ball, and his secondary pitches are not those of a dominant reliever. If he can hold his fastball velocity from college, he could move quickly through the system.
Summary: Schulze was the Phillies 7th round pick in the 2019 draft after he saw a big uptick in stuff moving to the bullpen for Minnesota. In college he was reportedly more in the mid 90s, touching up to 98. In pro ball, he was more 91 to 94, touching 95, which is not surprising given the length of the season. The Phillies actually had him starting some late in the year, and it remains to be seen which role they see him in going forward. He has a changeup and curveball, but neither is a carrying pitch. His ERA was stellar for the Phillies, marred only by an earned run in his last appearance. He missed bats in pro-ball, but his control numbers were very poor compared to what he accomplished in college. If the Phillies leave him in the bullpen, there is a chance he could move quickly through the system.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies are likely to jump their relief prospects over Lakewood, now that they have a piggyback starter system there, so as a reliever it is likely that Schulze starts in Clearwater. If the Phillies want to give him a look as a starter, he could fit into a 3-4 inning role in the Lakewood piggyback rotation.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: N/A
43. Marcus Lee Sang, OF
Age: 19 Acquired: 11th Rnd, 2019 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’0” 200lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| GCL (Rk) | 36 | 183 | 2 | 6 | 8.0% | 30.4% | .224 | .283 | .320 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Lee Sang is a raw high school hitter who has not faced a ton of high level competition. He is going to take time to develop, but the raw tools give him enough impact to potentially play everyday.
Summary: The Phillies took Lee Sang with an early Day 3 pick in the 2019 draft, signing him away from a commitment to St Joes. He is raw as a hitter, and will need to refine his approach and pitch recognition. He has good raw power and a strong arm. He might have enough speed to play some center field, but the arm and power are a classic right field profile if he slows as he fills out. He is going to take some time, but he is athletic and toolsy enough to warrant attention going forward.
2020 Outlook: Depending on how he plays in Extended Spring Training (and how many outfielders the Phillies draft), Lee Sang will either be repeating the GCL or heading north to Williamsport.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: N/A
44. D.J. Jefferson, RHP
Age: 19 Acquired: Non-drafted Free Agent 2019
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’5” 180lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| GCL (Rk) | 5 | 1 | 0-1 | 10.2 | 1.69 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 9.5% | 16.7% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Jefferson has the frame and arm strength to build from, but lacks the current secondary tools to make him less risky than any other complex level pitcher.
Summary: Coming into his senior year of high school, Jefferson was projected as a first 3 round pick in the draft based on his size and athleticism. The projection didn’t really catch up, and with a commitment to the University of Southern California it looked like he was heading to college when he went undrafted. Surprisingly, he ended up signing with the Phillies as a free agent over the summer. Jefferson is a tall, projectable, athletic right hander which is a very good starting base for a teenage pitcher. In his short stint in the GCL his fastball was in the low 90s, peaking at 94. His secondary pitches still need a good amount of work. Overall Jefferson has a lot of work to do both on the mound and in a weight room, but he is definitely the kind of pitcher that could pop up out of nowhere in a year or two.
2020 Outlook: The Phillies employed a piggyback system in Lakewood last year, so with a good spring, Jefferson could go the way of Dominic Pipkin and jump right to full season ball. More likely, he is held back in the complex where results in Extended Spring Training could make him a late arrival to the BlueClaws or a member of the Crosscutters.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: N/A
45. Addison Russ, RHP
Age: 25 Acquired: 19th Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’1” 190lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 55 | 0 | 5-6 | 56.2 | 2.54 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 8.4% | 34.2% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – Russ lacks the truly dominant pitch or AAA experience to allay any concerns about his stuff working in a high leverage role, however he has a mature arsenal with a history of success.
Summary: Minor league closers are not necessarily top prospects, especially not ones that stay in that role for one team like Russ did for Reading in 2019. Russ has never been a top prospect, and his stuff has never been on par with guys like Kyle Dohy, and he has never been as projectable as some of his younger teammates. What Russ has been is stable and dominant. Some earned/unearned run splits make his first/second half splits seem starker, and he struggled some in August. Russ’ stuff would have looked much better 8 years ago when I started writing, but his fastball sitting 94-96 is more above average than plus for a right handed reliever. His splitter is probably a future plus pitch. Russ is already 25 and physically mature, so any growth on those pitches is likely to come from slight control improvements as well as sequencing and location. While he doesn’t profile as a closer at the next level, Russ is near MLB ready and could contribute somewhere in a bullpen when the Phillies need an arm at some point in 2020.
2020 Outlook: Russ is one of many relief prospects the Phillies will have in AAA that will be Rule 5 eligible at the end of the year. There are plenty of spots to be won in the majors, so a good start could force a call-up, and a bad start could see him buried.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: UR
46. Abrahan Gutierrez, C
Age: 20 Acquired: 2017 International Free Agent (originally signed with Braves in 2016 class)
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’2” 214 lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LKW (A-) | 83 | 322 | 4 | 3 | 8.7% | 19.3% | .245 | .314 | .318 |
Role: Backup Catcher
Risk: High – Gutierrez has many of the foundational pieces to be a solid backup catcher if he just improves gradually. However, there is a long path from low-A to the majors, and a lot of young catchers don’t have all of those pieces survive the journey.
Summary: Gutierrez was once one of the top July 2 prospects, but ultimately how advanced he was was not a sign of future growth. When the Phillies signed him, after his Braves contract was voided, his star had already faded. He is already physically developed and lacks high end tools. He has better offensive tools than he showed in Lakewood, but nothing that profiles as above average. His glove is polished, but he is not a gold glove defender and his defense is not going to carry him on its own. The combination of offense and defense gives him more of a backup ceiling. He is still fairly young, but as we have seen so far, that doesn’t necessarily mean there is untapped upside.
2020 Outlook: With more catching on the way to full season ball, Gutierrez is likely to be bumped up to Clearwater to once again pair with Rafael Marchan.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 46
47. Colton Eastman, RHP
Age: 23 Acquired: 4th Rd, 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R H/W: 6’3” 185lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| LKW (A-) | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 21 | 6.00 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 3.4% | 28.1% |
| CLW (A+) | 13 | 12 | 5-5 | 75 | 3.36 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 7.0% | 25.2% |
| REA (AA) | 6 | 4 | 1-1 | 32.2 | 3.03 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 9.2% | 22.9% |
Role: #5 SP
Risk: Medium – Eastman has solid control and a true plus pitch in his curveball, but a below average fastball is going to make it difficult for him to do anything but live on the margins.
Summary: Eastman looks like the modern analytics pitching prospect. He has good size, and he pitches over the top with a high spin curveball. He can work up in the zone with his fastball, and then attack with the plus breaker. In many ways the formula is similar to former Phillies starter Jared Eickhoff, and Eastman’s curve even has some of the same look as Eickhoff’s. Eastman does have a solid changeup giving him three usable pitches. The problem is that Eastman’s velocity did not show any growth after a year in pro ball. For the year, he sat mostly 88 to 90, touching 91-92. There is still a slight chance he can develop a little more velocity, but it is increasingly unlikely. While the pitch combination works, it is hard for a guy to begin his career at such a low velocity band, and while Eastman has solid command, he is more of a strike thrower than an artist in the zone. Without an average fastball, it is going to be hard to keep major league hitters off of his secondary pitches. Given that his curveball is a good pitch, there is a chance that Eastman is moved to a long relief role where he can feature the pitch more without having to worry about turning a lineup over. For now he will get reps in a minor league rotation, first at Reading and then possibly Lehigh Valley over the summer.
2020 Outlook: Eastman had a 3.03 ERA in Reading, but it was only in 32.2 IP, and that low inning total coupled with the Phillies depth in front of him lines him up for a return trip to AA with a midseason promotion to AAA a possibility.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 38
48. Zach Warren, LHP
Age: 23 Acquired: 14th Rd, 2017 Draft
B/T: L/L H/W: 6’5” 200lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A+) | 40 | 0 | 1-3 | 60 | 3.30 | 6.5 | 0.3 | 14.8% | 31.1% |
| AFL | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 4.2 | 3.86 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 20.0% | 35.0% |
Role: Above Average Reliever
Risk: High – Warren has the pitches to be a mainstay in a major league bullpen, but his control still needs a lot of work before he can reach that ceiling.
Summary: The Phillies took a whole host of college arms in the 2017 draft, and as the past two and a half seasons have unfolded, they have popped one by one. First it was Kyle Dohy rocketting to the upper levels, then Addison Russ just putting up sub 2.00 ERAs, and then there was Connor Brogdon going through 3 levels in 2019. Warren looked on pace to do that too, after a dominant 2018 campaign, but injuries and delivery problems derailed his early season. Overall, control problems continued to plague the tall lefty, but by the end of the year he had racked up strikeouts and a respectable ERA. Warren is primarily fastball/curveball, with the heater sitting 91 to 95, touching up to 96, and the curveball a power pitch with good downward movement. He does throw a distinct slider and changeup that help keep him from just being a LOOGY. If he can throw enough strikes, he could be a very useful major league reliever, but that consistency has yet to be something in his arsenal.
2020 Outlook: After spending the 2019 season in Clearwater, Warren will certainly open the year in Reading. A good start might get him pushed to AAA by the end of the season. He will be competing with a lot of his fellow pitchers from the 2017 draft for a limited number of 40 man spots this offseason.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 31
49. Arquimedes Gamboa, SS
Age: 22 Acquired: 2014 International Free Agent
B/T: S/R H/W: 6’0” 175lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| REA (AA) | 113 | 421 | 3 | 21 | 14.0% | 26.6% | .188 | .305 | .270 |
Role: Glove First Utility Infielder
Risk: Medium – Gamboa has the defensive chops to play plus defense all over the infield, but there is a strong chance he hits like Michael Martinez as his peak.
Summary: The Phillies added Gamboa to the 40 man roster last offseason following a poor Clearwater season. No one expected the young shortstop to mash at AA, but his regression is disappointing. Gamboa is an athletic defender who plays good defense at shortstop, and he has cleaned up some of the mental mistakes he made when he was younger. He is a plus runner who has intermittently shown a high success rate at stealing bases. At the plate he doesn’t entirely lack strength, but Gamboa’s swing lacks impact. His inability to drive the ball has driven up his strikeout rate, and prevented his ability to draw a walk from giving him enough value. Gamboa is still relatively young, but no longer young enough to believe he will work through all of his problems. He has enough glove to have a role as a defensive bench infielder, but even that outcome requires him to be minus at the plate and not a zero.
2020 Outlook: After hitting poorly at AA in 2019, Gamboa will get another crack at Reading, and is likely only to see the majors if the Phillies suddenly need a temporary bench infielder in a crunch.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 11
50. Daniel Brito, 2B
Age: 22 Acquired: 2014 International Free Agent
B/T: L/R H/W: 6’1” 170lbs
2019 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A+) | 103 | 379 | 4 | 6 | 5.8% | 19.3% | .243 | .296 | .325 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Despite his raw tools, Brito is going to need to hit somewhere in order to have a major league career, and right now has a three year track record of not doing that.
Summary: No player in the Phillies system combines a more of a disconnect between statistical outcomes and tools than Brito. He is a good defender at second base, and his plus speed makes him a good baserunner. Brito has shown the swing and raw power to be a plus hitter with average power. However, he has been very bad against left handed pitchers, and poor plate discipline and lack of muscle has led to poor contact. If everything clicks, Brito has enough ceiling to be an everyday second basemen, but given the track record of failure, it is very likely his future involves a continued stalling in AA.
2020 Outlook: Given the guys coming up behind him, it might be time for the Phillies to just let Brito sink or swim in Reading and see what happens.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 17