Otto Kemp

Role: #3 Starter that sometimes looks like a 2
Risk: Medium – Abel’s stuff has not taken a backseat from when he looked like a front of the rotation starting pitcher. He has struggled with his command, in particular in getting hitters to expand the zone, and that development is worrying enough to think he might not have the consistency to be a front line arm, even if he flashes it.
Summary: It was sort of a weird year for Mick Abel, full of many changes that often went unnoticed under the surface numbers. He has started to really grow into his velocity, and while there is room for more, Baseball America (who has access to the full minor league data set) reported his fastball averaged 95.9 mph, and my tracking had him as 95-98 in most of his starts, getting up to 100. He faded some in his last start for Lehigh Valley, and he does lose some velocity during his starts, but he still has some room to add the strength and stamina. He doesn’t have ideal movement on his 4-seamer, but he gets good extension and consequently gets pretty low and flat despite his height. This makes it a good weapon up in the zone for swings and misses. In the last month or two of the season he began throwing a sinker as well, and it has large vertical and horizontal separation from his fastball. He throws a harder changeup (89-92mph when he was throwing the fastball in the upper 90s) that has improved over time and should actually be a good weapon for him. The biggest change is in his breaking balls. When Abel was drafted he had a more typical slider shape. That was lengthened out last year to a sweeper, but he never really had good feel or results with it and it blended with his curveball. They scrapped the sweeper in the middle of the year in favor of a harder gyro slider, and it already plays off his arsenal better. This allows him to more easily feature his two plane curveball, and it has grown into a plus pitch he is comfortable throwing in the zone or for chases. In the spring Abel toyed with a cutter, but given the slider change, the cutter likely gets put on the shelf as the cutter plays more in the same role as his new slider, as opposed to aiding a sweeper.

The problem with Abel has been command. He does have some occasional control problems stemming from some inconsistencies in repeating his delivery. He will just throw some uncompetitive pitches that will put him in unfavorable counts and compound his other issues. The Phillies are looking to simplify his delivery and shorten his arm path a bit, and that combined with getting stronger in his lower half is the planned solution to the delivery issues. The other command problem is less tangible and more interlinked into his full arsenal. Abel has a collection of above average to plus pitches, and while he can elevate the fastball up for misses, he lacks a true dominant pitch to get outs in the zone with. He has struggled to get chases out of the zone, and he has racked up balls and consequently walks. Some of the problem is that his arsenal had become predictable, with hitters laying off the fastball up and out or breaking balls away. There was some talk that he was also tipping the breaking ball some. To counter the arsenal problems, the Phillies have made some of the arsenal changes. The new slider is more of a weapon in the zone than the sweeper and, like the curveball, plays better off the 4-seam fastball up. The introduction of the sinker gives him another weapon against right handed batters, and a pitch that can work in the zone for poor contact. The sinker will also give him a more viable way to attack the bottom of the strike zone and open up the changeup as a chase pitch low, as opposed to having to play off the high four seamer.

It is a large arsenal for a 22 year old pitcher in AA, but if the previous arsenal visions of Painter and Abel were Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, then he is now more of a Zack Wheeler clone. He has a similar build and delivery to Wheeler, and now he has an arsenal that more resembles the current Phillies ace’s toolbox of weapons. Wheeler took a while to put it all together, and if Abel is going to hit a front of the rotation upside, it might be years into his major league career as his body fills out more and he has better command of how to use his full arsenal. Abel’s primary role in 2024 will be finding that consistent delivery and working on refining his collection of pitches. He also finds himself at the top of the minor league starting pitching depth chart and near to his major league debut.
2024 Outlook: Abel pitched a full season of innings the last two years and had the one start cameo in Lehigh Valley to end the year. He will need to be added to the 40 man roster after the year anyway, and as of right now is probably the Phillies #6 starting pitcher, but given his developmental needs it is likely they turn to others on spot starts, and he won’t get a turn unless there is a longer injury.

Role: #2/#3 Starting Pitcher
Risk: High – Abel did not have any real stumbles, but he also didn’t have any big leaps. He has good stuff, but it isn’t overwhelming enough to not need polish. He is likely on the low end of the risk scale for a pitcher along his level of development, but there is still a gap to the majors. Throwing over 100 innings and making 23 starts is a very positive durability development.
Summary: The Phillies were very cautious with Abel in his first year in 2021, shutting him down early after an arm injury, causing him to log only 44.2 innings. While there were some definite ups and downs statistically for Abel in 2022, he took the ball once a week from April 9 until September 17, with the exception of a week off for the South Atlantic League All-Star game. He threw 108.1 innings on the season, and he topped 100 pitches twice in mid-July before they backed off of him a bit. Given his frame and ability to handle the workload, the Phillies are definitely pushing him in a way that is more workhorse than a max effort 5-6 inning arm.

Abel shows the arsenal for starting as well. He mostly sits 94-97 with his fastball, but he will get to 98 and 99. It has good ride and spin, though not quite at the level of Painter or McGarry, and it is a real bat misser at the top of the zone. He did lose some velocity deeper into starts in the later season outings I checked in on, but it was much less than what he did in 2021. Abel’s primary pitch as an amateur and as a pro is his slider. The Phillies took what had been a plus pitch and moved it into more of a sweeper. The pitch is a touch slower than what he threw in 2021, but it works a bit better overall with his arsenal. It is at least a plus pitch, but with some consistency and a touch more command it could be a plus plus weapon for him. His changeup lacks consistency, but he does show that he has some feel for it, and with work it could be a solid third pitch. He has not thrown his curveball as much this season, but it sits just below his slider velocity wise with much more drop. He will sometimes bleed it into the slider, but when he gets on top of it, he will show you a plus one. It probably settles in more average to above average than plus, and will likely function more to play off of the slider and give hitters a different look.

Abel has some definite young pitcher areas of improvement. He has a tendency to nibble and fish for chases with his slider. This can lead to deep pitch counts and advantageous situations for hitters. His stuff is not quite dynamic enough to throw command to the wind and just aim down the middle, but he will need to work on establishing his slider for strikes. He also has a tendency to not use the full zone, and he has innings where he gets too predictable. This is where getting the changeup and curveball in a place where they offer theoretical expansion of what the hitter has to defend will be important. Alternatively, if he can get the fastball command to a place where he can consistently work the edges of the zone, it will allow him to play with expanding off of it with the slider more.

There is definitely some worry that you look at Abel and see a mid rotation arm, and not a front line arm. While 2022 had some improvements, it was mostly a consolidation and durability proving year. Abel is only 21, and he had success at AA, so he is definitely well ahead of where he should be, he just isn’t on the rocket ship that Painter is on, and that is ok. To get into that #2 or better starting pitching realm, he is going to need to make some sort of unexpected growth, whether that is the fastball ticking up a bit more in velocity, some changeup growth, or more command and consistency, he is going to need to take some sort of next step to be a front line arm. The good news is that while we don’t really have the evidence to prove that leap is coming, he has enough feel for pitching and is young enough that it is not unreasonable that one of those things happens in the next few years. If it doesn’t happen, it is not hard to see him progressing as a high end mid rotation arm that shoulders a bunch of innings a year, and in this day and age of pitching, that is also a very valuable outcome.
2023 Outlook: Abel ended the year in AA, and while there has been posturing that he is not that far from a major league role, he is behind Painter and McGarry in terms of readiness and is not really major league ready. In AA he should get plenty of innings and get on a normal rotation cadence. If he doesn’t struggle, he should end the year in AAA and be ready to enter 2024 in contention for a major league rotation spot.