Yesterday, I kicked off the offseason by resetting the 40 man roster, and surprise I decided to write two days in a row and break up sort of the offseason moves portion into the obvious and the crazy, and start with the obvious. These are the moves that sort of must happen. Now some have varying levels of outcome, but if the Phillies go check, check, check, and on they will have had a good offseason. We can get into crazy roster reconstruction later, but these are the things they need to do.
1. Sign a big middle infielder
We can get into semantics of who should move to second depending on the player signed, but a player who will play second or short and be on your best 4-5 hitters is a must given the available players and the state of the team. The Phillies are already posturing around Edmundo Sosa, but that really is posturing that should be better left if all the big name players sign somewhere else. If you look at the roster of the team their 3 actual weakest positions are second base (no one), shortstop (Stott), and center (Marsh). We all like Stott and there is a lot he did this year that says he should be good, and also they should give him time. Marsh has weakness, but is the youngest player on the team, a former top prospect, and the Phillies have prospects in the pipeline that give you some other bullets to use on the problem. Meanwhile the Phillies middle infield depth is Stott, Edmundo Sosa, Nick Maton, and then dudes under 20 who have at most reached hi-A. There is no internal help coming at middle infield. Meanwhile, acquirable for just money (and draft compensation for QO players) are Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson. I personally start to get nervous after Turner and Correa, but it isn’t like the other two aren’t very good players. There are a lot of teams thinking the same thing, but a big name shortstop and the Phillies is the biggest marriage of need and availability on the market.
2. Some targeted extensions
Much of the Phillies team is under contract into their twilight years outside of a few. The Phillies got Aaron Nola on a very team friendly extension when he was coming off of injury, and 2023 is the last year of that. As much as you may love the Phillies top 3 prospects, they can still fail and Zack Wheeler is showing some decline, at least in health. Ranger Suarez is a nice pitcher, but he is almost certainly not a front end guy. I won’t get into the postseason debate here, but regular season Aaron Nola is one of the most dominant and durable pitchers in baseball and that provides a ton of stability to the team. There is a lot of precedents for a pitcher of Aaron Nola’s caliber whether is it Kevin Gausman (5/110), Robbie Ray (5/115), Joe Musgrove (5/100), Luis Castillo (5/108, though first year replaces an arb year), or Zack Wheeler (5/118). Nola has a little more track record, so maybe a bit more money, but it feels 5/115 to 5/125 gets it done and would work.
The next two are less critical, but definitely conversations that should happen. Jose Alvarado can be a free agent after 2023 and Seranthony Dominguez after 2024. Both are volatile enough you probably don’t want to go crazy in money or year, but also both have no made a ton in their careers. There feels like there is an opportunity for the Phillies to trade 2023 salary increases for some long term bullpen stability. It is harder to find precedence here, but it is something to at least look at.
3. Starting Pitcher
It has become common on Phillies Twitter to go all in on Carlos Rodon, and that isn’t a bad idea, he just is the only starting pitcher who is an impact arm that you want to give a big number of years too (even though the injury risk is real), and everyone else knows it. If Rodon comes to the Phillies and wants a 5-6 year deal at market rate, sure you run to get a pen. It is just more likely that some team goes Rockies with Kris Bryant crazy here with 7 years and over 200M over something like that. The next two arms are Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom, and while both would be good fits, it doesn’t feel like Verlander is signing up for a one year deal here in Philly and the AAV and years to get deGrom are downright terrifying. If you pivot into a theoretical trade market I don’t think you are getting a meaningful pitching upgrade without touching the young cheap pitching that allows you afford all of this. So that likely means as much as it would be great, you are probably not getting a 3rd ace. So then I think starting pitching acquisitions must fall within these logical rules.
- Will this player be my third starter in the playoff in front of Ranger? If not, then not a multi year deal
- Is this pitcher actually better than Bailey Falter? If not, move on
Is that strict criteria? Sure, but I think the team has a high enough floor that paying 3/51 (the Fangraphs prediction) for Chris Bassitt is probably a poor allocation of resources. So really what you want to find are really pitchers for 1 year who could give you upside (sort of what the Angels tried with Syndergaard last year). Maybe the guy flames out, but you still maintain flexibility going forward, and maybe you end up not with a playoff starter and instead Eflin or Gibson, but there is upside to be a 3 or 4. Some guys to think about are Matthew Boyd, Andrew Heaney, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Jake Odorizzi (if his option isn’t picked up), Jameson Tallion, Ross Stripling, and probably someone I missing.
Essentially there is no need for Chad Kuhl innings eaters and also you probably don’t want to be spending your budget for the next items to be giving 3 years to Taijuan Walker.
4. Always Relievers
The Phillies bullpen right now is Alvarado, Dominguez, Connor Brogdon, and Andrew Bellatti. That obviously is not going to cut it. I think the Phillies probably run a 6th starter or long man, and that spot probably is Bailey Falter or Nick Nelson, or something like that. So that is really 3 bullpen spots you need help in. There is not dominant closer on the market not that Edwin Diaz has re-signed with the Mets. I think the Phillies are more likely to give someone an actual closer role and more structure during the regular season, and that guy is probably Dominguez. In reality the Phillies need 2 guys who can pitch in the 7th or 8th inning and it would be good if one of them was left handed. They should also not be hesitant to go multiple years if needed. Just looking at lists of free agents, guys like Taylor Rodgers, Andrew Chafin, Robert Suarez, Will Smith (if his option is not picked up), Seth Lugo, and others are sort of that type of guy.
That leaves one more spot and that I think is sort of the wild card spot because the Phillies should be looking at swapping some of their 40 man pieces that fit less well for possibly some up and down relievers they like. Maybe they sign some milb free agents like Bellatti that are good. Maybe one of the prospect relievers shoves their way in. I think overall you don’t need to spend big on all 3 spots that are open, go get 2 very quality arms, and then throw sort of a bunch of darts at the other spot and maybe also build some depth out of it.
Overall, the Phillies have done a good job at build depth and a floor for themselves. The big easy moves are all about how do you fill those zeroes, prioritizing impact when you can and not overextending for mediocre floor raisers when you can’t. If they can get one of the big bats, some good bullpen arms, another starter, and do some consolidation, then it will be a good offseason. Now breaking outside of that mold starts to open up more holes and changes up the fabric of the team, and requires a completely different post to look at.