2019 Top 50 Phillies Prospects: 11-20

Much of writing about prospects is about hope and optimism for the future. However, it can also be about failure and what that means and what the paths out of it are. It is no secret that the Phillies system is down compared to where it was a few years ago. Some of that has been beaten to death weekly as we bemoan every draft pick that could have been ours. Much of that has to do with the second wave of prospects stagnating. That doesn’t make prospects like Jhailyn Ortiz and Arquimedes Gamboa bad prospects, it makes them flawed and talented prospects with things that need to be improved. It isn’t just disappointing prospects that make up the top of the list, as the Phillies system has experienced breakouts, particularly on the catching front. So while there are prospects slipping from the top, there are some new names pushing to make the top of the list in the very near future.

Index: 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 

All ages are for major league opening day.

11. Rafael Marchan – C

DOB: 2/25/1999 (20)
H/W: 5’9″ 170lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
Williamsport (SS)	51	210	0	9	5.2%	8.6%	.301	.343	.362

Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Marchan is a low minors catcher, and those tend to be very risky, however Marchan’s contact abilities at the plate give him a great offensive floor to go with solid defense. It will take time for Marchan to reach his potential, but much of his future projection is reliant on physical maturation and playing time rather than skill growth.
Summary: While overshadowed by the Phillies’ massive deal for Jhailyn Ortiz, Marchan had plenty of buzz during the 2015 signing period. A converted infielder, Marchan has shown promise behind the plate in professional ball. Marchan moves well for a catcher, and while he may not be a big base stealer at higher levels, he won’t be a base clogger. He is still new to catching but shows a strong arm and good feel for framing. Like many young catchers, Marchan still struggles to block pitches in the dirt, but he has the athleticism to improve with time. After a positive offensive 2016 season in the Dominican Summer League, Marchan had a disastrous 2017 season. The 2018 season was a breakthrough for Marchan, and he hit from day 1 of the Williamsport season. Marchan makes plenty of line drive contact and has a good approach at the plate. So far as a pro, Marchan has not hit for power, but he is young enough and has the frame to grow into harder contact as he fills out. The state of major league catching is very poor, and Marchan’s potential to impact the game on offense and defense makes him very valuable. There is still plenty of growth left before Marchan reaches his ceiling, and he might not be a fast mover as he polishes up the holes in his game.
2019 Outlook: Marchan will be the opening day catcher for Lakewood. He should spend the full year at the low-A level, which could represent a challenge as he will need to carry a much larger workload than he has to this point.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: HM

12. Arquimedes Gamboa – SS

DOB: 9/23/1997 (21)
H/W: 6’0″ 175lbs
B/T: S/R
Acquired: 2014 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
Clearwater (A+)	114	497	2	6	10.7%	22.3%	.214	.304	.279
Scottsdale (AFL)	20	72	0	2	16.7%	26.4%	.186	.319	.220

Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Gamboa is near major league ready on defense, but his offense needs plenty of work. He has flashed a good approach, ok power, plus speed, and a good hit tool but never at once. He might have enough glove to make the majors as a no bat utility infielder, but the bar is a decent bit above zero offensively at shortstop, even if you can field well.
Summary: Gamboa absolutely mashed to end his 2017 season, and it looked like he was finally putting all of his tools together into actual results. After hitting ok to open the 2018 season, that turned out to not be the case at all. Gamboa showed no power, especially during a horrible last two months where he hit .166/.256/.194 in 47 games. No one expects Gamboa to be a star level hitter, but he has shown the ability to draw walks, not strike out too much, and put the ball in play. His walk rate was fine in 2018, but the strikeouts ballooned and the quality of contact dropped. He has shown surprising strength for his size, and has shown below average raw power, but outside of flashes he really hasn’t shown it in games. Despite all the struggles, he has the offensive tools to be an average hitter if he can put the pieces all together. It is worth waiting for him to do that because his defense is great. He is still prone to defensive lapses and silly mistakes, but he has the potential to be a plus defender at shortstop. The Phillies didn’t want to risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft, so they added him to the 40 man roster this offseason. He is still only 21, so he has future maturing to do on both sides of the ball, and with the maturity may come the consistency he needs on the field. His glove will keep his stock high while his bat gets a chance to catch up again.
2019 Outlook: By adding him to the 40 man roster, the Phillies put a clock on Gamboa’s development. Given how bad his 2018 in Clearwater was, it makes sense for him to repeat the level, but they may push him to Reading as soon as he shows he has mastered A-ball.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 7

13. Simon Muzziotti – OF

DOB: 12/27/1998 (20)
H/W: 6’1″ 175lbs
B/T: L/L
Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent Signing by the Red Sox. Declared a Free Agent due to International signing rule violations by the Red Sox. 2016 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
GCL East (Rk)	6	24	0	1	8.3%	4.2%	.091	.167	.091
Lakewood (A-)	68	299	1	18	4.7%	13.4%	.263	.299	.331

Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Muzziotti has the base tools to be a solid player with his speed and defense, but he still is missing a lot of physical development to reach his offensive ceiling.
Summary: Muzziotti initially signed with the Red Sox in 2015, but was declared a free agent as part of their punishment for contracts against MLB’s international signing rules. When he originally signed with the Red Sox, he was a speed and defense outfielder with a weak arm. Since signing, and even more so after signing with the Phillies, Muzziotti has shown a plus arm and surprising feel for contact. He is already an above average defensive center fielder and should be at least plus at his peak. He is a plus plus runner which helps both in the outfield and on the bases. He is becoming a better base runner as well, going 16 for 17 on steals after returning from injury. The injury in this case was a broken finger from a hit by pitch that cost him almost exactly 2 months and did not seem to impact him much once he was back. At the plate, Muzziotti has a great feel for contact, but his pitch recognition and plate discipline lag enough to lead him towards poor contact at times. He currently lacks any sort of power in his bat, but he does have the frame to fill out and be maybe a 5-10 home run a year player at his peak while peppering the gaps with doubles and triples. The lack of power holds back Muzziotti’s upside some, but his glove and speed mean that if he can add some amount of strength, and clean up the pitch recognition, he could be an Ender Inciarte type player in center field.
2019 Outlook: Despite missing time and having just ok numbers, Muzziotti has enough feel for contact that the Phillies will likely send him to Clearwater and look past the lack of power, given that they know he needs to add strength still.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 23

14. Ranger Suarez – LHP

DOB: 8/26/1995 (24)
H/W: 6’1″ 180lbs
B/T: L/L
Acquired: 2012 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
Reading (AA)	12	12	4-3	75.0	2.76	7.7	0.2	6.7%	18.2%
Lehigh Valley (AAA)	9	9	2-0	49.1	2.74	8.8	0.4	7.3%	15.1%
Philadelphia (MLB)	4	3	1-1	15.0	5.40	12.6	1.8	8.7%	15.9%

Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Medium – Suarez is essentially major league ready, but his lack of missed bats and secondary pitch polish means that he is currently more of a #5 SP. In order to reach his reasonable outcome, he is going to need to show some improvement across the board.
Summary: Ranger Suarez had his breakout year in 2017, earning him a spot on the Phillies’ 40 man roster after the year. The Phillies aggressively pushed him to Reading, and after he mastered the level they sent him up to Lehigh Valley. Injuries in the majors led to him making 3 starts for the major league club in the second half. At his best, Suarez will sit 89 to 94 with his fastball, but he can get it up to 95. He mixes it up with a slider and changeup, both in the low 80s. He can throw all three pitches for strikes and will show the ability to locate them them well in the zone. Because his fastball is not overpowering, Suarez is forced to rely on his secondary pitches. The problem is that neither has been a weapon to lean on. His changeup is above average, and his slider is more average but has flashed better before. This led to a sharp decline in strikeouts at all three levels he pitched at in 2018. He will likely need to improve both pitches to consistently above average, or one to a true plus pitch, to stick as a solid starting pitcher. If both pitches stagnate, he might end up as an up and down starter or reliever.
2019 Outlook: Suarez put up a good ERA in 9 AAA starts, but 31 strikeouts in 49.1 innings points to an area of improvement. He will still likely be one of the Phillies’ first callups should they need another starter in 2019.
ETA: 2018
Previous Rank: 18

15. Jhailyn Ortiz – OF

DOB: 11/18/1998 (20)
H/W: 6’3″ 215lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
Lakewood (A-)	110	454	13	2	7.7%	32.6%	.225	.297	.375

Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Ortiz’s upside is obvious, his raw power might be the best in the Phillies system. His risk is obvious as well. Ortiz moves well in the outfield, but he looks like a first baseman or designated hitter. Additionally, 2018 showed how much can go wrong with Ortiz if his approach isn’t spot on.
Summary: Ortiz looked like a breakout in the making after his year in Williamsport, but things got off to a poor start in Lakewood and it only got worse. Ortiz missed time early with a sore shoulder that also held down his offense to open the year. Many evaluators reported that Ortiz looked absolutely lost at the plate over the season. There has been some conjecture that there may have been a vision issue based on his day/night splits.

	G	AB	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
Day	21	76	7	21	.276	.356	.447
Night	89	329	28	127	.213	.283	.359

None of that has been more than guess work, as the Phillies have given no reasons for the sudden departure of a plan at the plate. Ortiz’s swing is geared more for power than contact, so he has little leeway to be swinging at the wrong pitches. The physical tools are still present for Ortiz. He has plus plus power, a plus arm, and surprising athleticism for his size, all of which give him the profile of a middle of a lineup slugger. He is also still young, as he will be only 20 years old for the 2019 season. There is plenty of time for Ortiz to turn things around, but given that he is likely to move down the defensive spectrum as he gets older, he will need to start hitting soon.
2019 Outlook: Unless Ortiz sets spring training on fire, he probably will repeat Lakewood. If he can get off to a hot start, the Phillies could move him quickly to Clearwater due to his high profile and impending Rule 5 eligibility.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 6

16. Mauricio Llovera – RHP

DOB: 4/17/1996 (22)
H/W: 5’11” 200lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
Clearwater (A+)	23	22	8-7	121.0	3.72	7.4	1.0	6.7%	27.0%

Role: #4 Starter/High End Reliever
Risk: High – Llovera’s below average command and delivery give him a high risk of being a reliever long term. His secondary pitches have plus potential, but are still too inconsistent to project as carrying pitches in a bullpen role.
Summary: Llovera has moved between the bullpen and rotation for his whole career, but with Sixto Sanchez’s late start to the year he opened in the rotation for the Threshers. Llovera looks more the part of a reliever than a starter. He is short, large bodied, and throws from a high effort delivery. Before 2018, he also lacked a starter’s arsenal, but he developed a split changeup to pair with his slider that has flashed plus. The best pitch of his arsenal is his fastball, which sits 91-96, touching 97-98, as a starter. Llovera can throw strikes but has below average command, so locating those strikes has been a problem at times. If the Phillies want to continue to develop Llovera as a starter, he profiles somewhere in the #3/#4 starter dividing line depending on his command. He is likely to be frustrating in that role, as his raw stuff is likely to outpace his results. If the Phillies want to move Llovera to the bullpen, he won’t quite be Seranthony Dominguez, but he could move very quickly through the system. Based on his history in the bullpen, and his 2018 growth, it is not unreasonable to expect him to pitch with a plus plus fastball sitting in the 94-98 range, touching 99-100, with good secondary pitches.
2019 Outlook: For now it looks like the Phillies are keeping Llovera in the rotation, which means he probably will open the year in the Reading rotation. If the Phillies want to make him a reliever, he could reach the majors by the end of the year.
ETA: 2020
Previous Rank: HM

17. Rodolfo Duran – C

DOB: 2/19/1998 (21)
H/W: 5’9″ 170lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: 2014 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
Lakewood (A-)	88	336	18	1	6.0%	22.3%	.260	.304	.495

Role: Average Regular
Risk: High – Duran has a good defensive floor, but he is also a low-A catcher with some questions with his bat. He is not a big guy, and his approach needs some work. He has raw power, but he will need to tap into it against higher level pitchers to be an everyday guy.
Summary: The Phillies have long liked Rodolfo Duran, and pushed him aggressively through the system. He had a great 2016 season, but a move to Williamsport in 2017 went poorly. His attempt at full season ball went much better, with Duran ending the year tied for 6th in the South Atlantic League in home runs and 9th in OPS. Impressively, Duran hit 10 home runs at home, in a stadium notorious for limiting right handed power. Duran’s composite numbers don’t tell the full story, as his season was up and down by the month, with his OPS going .374, .659, 1.298, .442, .848 from April to August. September was a small sample, but he went 10 for 30 with 3 home runs and 3 walks to 6 strikeouts in 8 games between the regular season and playoffs. The inconsistency with Duran is concerning, because it isn’t just batted ball luck as his approach seems to come and go. The power, while surprising given Duran’s size, does appear to be real, and he will show good raw power outside of games. Behind the plate is where Duran’s strength’s really lie. He is a future above average defender thanks to a plus arm and good receiving. He has also held up to a pretty high workload, but once again his size will always cause doubts. His defense should carry him to a backup role, but if he can clean up his approach he has enough offensive upside to be an everyday player.
2019 Outlook: Duran will likely be the primary catcher in Clearwater to open the year. He probably will need the full year there, but his Rule 5 status after the season could see the Phillies push him if he has a good season.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: HM

18. Daniel Brito – 2B

DOB: 1/23/1998 (21)
H/W: 6’1″ 155lbs
B/T: L/R
Acquired: 2014 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
Lakewood (A-)	92	368	4	15	7.3%	17.4%	.252	.309	.340
Clearwater (A+)	27	100	0	1	6.0%	19.0%	.250	.300	.348

Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – It has now been nearly two seasons since Brito’s numbers matched his scouting report. All of his tools could click at any point for Brito, but he is reaching the point in his career where he needs to actually put up results.
Summary: After fading down the stretch in 2017, Brito got off to a poor start in his return to Lakewood. He did rebound in June and July, eventually earning a promotion to Clearwater. Brito has a good looking left handed swing and will show future average to above average raw power. The power has not yet shown up in games. His approach has been a problem since he left the GCL. He is prone to chasing poor pitches and has been a disaster against left handed pitchers. Brito is also a plus runner who showed improvement in stealing bases at higher success rate. In the field, Brito has taken very well to second base. He won the minor league Gold Glove at second, but his consistency can be a problem in the field. He does however, have the upside to be an impactful defender at the position. The biggest theme for Brito is consistency. He has as much upside as any hitter in the organization, but so far it has not all shown up. He was passed over in the Rule 5 draft this offseason and is rapidly moving to a point where he cannot get by on just future promise anymore.
2019 Outlook: Brito only played for a month in Clearwater, so a return trip to the Threshers is in order. The Florida State League is not a great place for power, but Clearwater is a hitter’s park relative to the league, so Brito will need to show at least some power at home.
ETA: 2021
Previous Rank: 11

19. Starlyn Castillo – RHP

DOB: 2/24/2002 (17)
H/W: 6’0″ 210lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: 2018 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
Role: #3 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Castillo has a surprisingly mature arsenal for a teenager, and it is easy to project his stuff in an impactful rotation role. He is still a teenager though, and there are a lot of hurdles along the way in terms of translating that stuff into results and staying healthy.
Summary: The Phillies signing one of the top international pitchers is no longer a new thing. Castillo does represent a bit of a departure from the protectable arms of the past. Castillo shot up signing rankings based on his already mature fastball, topping out at 97 as a 15 year old. Like most teenage arms, the biggest areas of growth for Castillo are going to be his command and secondary pitches. He throws a changeup and a curveball, and has shown feel for both, but neither profile above average right now. Unlike most teenage pitchers, Castillo is physically mature. Any future velocity growth is going to come more from efficiencies in delivery than from added muscle. The good news is that Castillo already has the base pitches he needs to be a very good starter.
2019 Outlook: Castillo will start for one of the Phillies two GCL teams after spending the spring in Extended Spring Training.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: N/A

20. Deivi Grullon – C

DOB: 2/17/1996 (23)
H/W: 6’1″ 180lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: 2012 International Free Agent Signing by the Phillies
2018 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
Reading (AA)	90	353	21	0	5.1%	22.9%	.273	.310	.515

Role: Second Division Regular/Backup Catcher
Risk: Medium – While he still has some cleaning up to do behind the plate, Grullon profiles as a near MLB ready above average defender. At the plate, his approach remains concerningly aggressive, but he is finally putting his plus raw power to work in games.
Summary: Grullon has seemingly been around forever in the Phillies’ system, and 2019 will represent his 7th year. Despite all that, Grullon will only have turned 23 years old a month and a half before Opening Day. Catchers can take awhile to develop, especially offensively. The biggest change for Grullon in 2018 was tapping into his power more at the plate. While the Reading ballpark certainly aided him some, Grullon put on a display in the Eastern League Home Run Derby in Trenton, and still put up good power numbers on the road. His approach has gotten better at the plate, but he is still prone to swinging wildly at pitches out of the zone. He is likely always going to be a low on base percentage player, the key will be keeping the strikeout rate at a reasonable level as he progresses. Behind the plate, Grullon is not a particularly athletic catcher, but he receives well and can handle the position. His blocking has regressed a little and could still use some work, but he has flashed the ability to do it well. He is blessed with an 80 grade throwing arm and has put up pop times in the low 1.80s range throughout his career. Grullon’s lack of well rounded contribution at the plate likely means that us upside is probably very good second catcher. If he hits his defensive ceiling, he should have a very long major league career.
2019 Outlook: Grullon should be the starter in AAA to open the year. He isn’t on the 40 man roster, but with his impending free agency and the Phillies only having two current catchers on the roster, he is probably the first call up if Alfaro or Knapp suffers an injury.
ETA: 2019
Previous Rank: HM

Image of Mauricio Llovera by Baseball Betsy