2018 Phillies Prediction Survey

The past few years I have done a prediction survey with people who write and talk about the Phillies and baseball in general. This year I got 34 responses to the survey, which included writers from The Good Phight, Crashburn Alley, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, Phuture Phillies, and others (including radio broadcasters). All submissions from experts are recorded below anonymously. I also opened up the majority of questions to the public to vote on, and I have included those responses here as well (182 responses).

Not every question was answered by all respondents and some questions were given more than one answer.

Who will be the Phillies best hitter in 2018?

Rhys Hoskins – 22 – 64.7%
Carlos Santana – 6 – 17.6%
Odubel Herrera – 4 – 11.8%
Cesar Hernadez – 1 – 2.9%
Scott Kingery – 1 – 2.9%

Fan Vote: Rhys Hoskins – 88 (49.4%), Carlos Santana – 43 (24.2%), Odubel Herrera – 23 (12.9%), Cesar Hernandez – 9 (5.1%), Aaron Altherr – 8 (4.5%), Nick Williams – 4 (2.2%), Scott Kingery – 2 (1.1%), Other – 1 (0.6%)

Who will be the Phillies best pitcher in 2018?

Aaron Nola – 30 – 88.2%
Jake Arrieta – 4 – 11.8%

Fan Vote: Aaron Nola – 157 (86.7%), Jake Arrieta – 24 (13.3%)

Who will be the Phillies top hitting prospect at the end of 2018?

Jhailyn Ortiz – 22 – 64.7%
Adam Haseley – 8 – 23.5%
Daniel Brito – 2 – 5.9%
Cornelius Randolph – 1 – 2.9%
Darick Hall – 1 – 2.9%

Fan Vote: Jhailyn Ortiz – 105 (58%), Adam Haseley – 58 (32%), Mickey Moniak – 7 (3.9%), Daniel Brito – 3 (1.7%), Scott Kingery – 3 (1.7%), Cornelius Randolph – 2 (1.1%), Arquimedes Gamboa – 2 (1.1%), other – 1 (0.6%)

Who will be the Phillies top pitching prospect at the end of 2018?

Sixto Sanchez – 28 – 82.4%
Adonis Medina – 2 – 5.9%
JoJo Romero – 2 – 5.9%
Enyel De Los Santos – 1 – 2.9%
Casey Mize – 1 – 2.9%

Fan Vote: Sixto Sanchez – 166 (91.7%), Franklyn Kilome – 5 (2.8%), Adonis Medina – 4 (2.2%), JoJo Romero – 4 (2.2%), Francisco Morales – 1 (0.6%), Kyle Dohy – 1 (0.6%)

Who will be the Phillies top rookie?

Scott Kingery – 13 – 38.2%
J.P. Crawford – 11 – 35.2%
Jorge Alfaro – 9 – 26.5%

Fan Vote: Scott Kingery – 67 (37%), J.P. Crawford – 66 (36.5%), Jorge Alfaro – 46 (25.4%), Roman Quinn – 1 (0.6%)

How many games will the Phillies win in 2018?

86 – 2
85 – 1
84 – 9
83 – 1
82 – 6
81 – 2
80 – 5
79 – 1
78 – 4
77 – 2
76 – 1

Fan Vote: 92 – 1, 91 – 1, 90 – 1, 88 – 6, 87 – 7, 86 – 13, 85 – 15, 84 – 20, 83 – 19, 82 – 15, 81 – 13, 80 – 12, 79 – 14, 78 – 19, 77 – 6, 76 – 6, 75 – 5, 74 -1, 73 – 1, 69 – 1, 67 – 1, 66 – 1

Who is your favorite Phillies prospect to watch?

Sixto Sanchez – 16
Scott Kingery – 9
Roman Quinn – 3
Adonis Medina – 2
Jhailyn Ortiz – 2
Thomas Eshelman – 1
Jakob Hernandez – 1

Fan Vote: Adonis Medina – 1, J.P. Crawford – 9, Dylan Cozens – 1, Franklyn Kilome – 1, Adam Haseley – 1, Jakob Hernandez – 1, Jhailyn Ortiz – 5, JoJo Romero – 1, Jorge Alfaro – 2, Keudy Bocio – 1, Scott Kingery – 63, Kyle Dohy – 1, Kyle Young – 2, Mickey Moniak – 2, Ranger Suarez – 1, Roman Quinn – 9, Sixto Sanchez – 58

Which Phillies prospect will break out in 2018?

Jhailyn Ortiz – 6
Adam Haseley – 4
Cornelius Randolph – 4
Daniel Brito – 3
Mickey Moniak – 3
Arquimedes Gamboa – 2
Enyel De Los Santos – 2
Scott Kingery – 2
Spencer Howard – 2
Alejandro Requena – 1
Cole Irvin – 1
Connor Seabold – 1
Dalton Guthrie – 1
Jose Gomez – 1
Ranger Suarez – 1

Fan Vote: Adam Haseley – 16, Adonis Medina – 6, Jorge Alfaro – 6, Arquimedes Gamboa – 7, Bailey Falter – 1, Brayan Gonzalez – 1, Daniel Brito – 2, Cornelius Randolph – 7, Dylan Cozens – 2, J.P. Crawford – 2, Enyel De Los Santos – 2, Thomas Eshelman – 3, Franklyn Kilome – 5, Francisco Morales – 3, Jhailyn Ortiz – 29, JoJo Romero – 2, Scott Kingery – 18, Kyle Dohy – 1, Kyle Young – 4, Mickey Moniak – 14, Mitch Walding  – 1, Ben Pelletier – 1, Roman Quinn – 4, Seranthony Dominguez – 3, Simon Muzziotti – 2, Sixto Sanchez – 3, Spencer Howard – 2

Which minor league team are you most looking forward to?

Lehigh Valley IronPigs – 6 – 17.6%
Reading Fightin Phils – 7 – 20.6%
Clearwater Threshers – 15 – 44.1%
Lakewood BlueClaws – 5 – 14.7%
GCL Phillies (East and West) – 1 – 2.9%

Fan Vote: Lehigh Valley – 38 (21.6%), Reading – 69 (39.2%), Clearwater – 55 (31.3%), Lakewood – 12 (6.8%), GCL Phillies – 2 (1.1%)

Who do the Phillies draft in June?

Shane McClanahan – 6
Ethan Hankins – 4
Casey Mize – 3
College Arm – 2
Pitcher – 2
BPA – 1
Brice Turang – 1
Jackson Kowar – 1
Jarred Kelenic – 1
Matt Liberatore – 1
Nick Madrigal – 1
Ryan Rolison – 1
Third base -1
No Idea – 5
Something negative – 3

Fan Vote: (I limited this to actual player mentions for my sanity) Brady Singer – 7, Brice Turang – 2, Casey Mize – 8, Ethan Hankins – 2, Nolan Gorman – 6, Jackson Kowar – 2, Matt Liberatore – 4, Shane McClanahan – 15, Nander De Sades – 2, Nick Madrigal – 2, Ryan Rolison – 3

At the deadline the Phillies trade for…

Cole Hamels – 6
Prospects – 5
Chris Archer – 3
Danny Duffy – 2
SP – 2
Manny Machado – 2
RP – 1
J.A. Happ – 1
Kendall Graveman – 1
Chase Headley – 1

Fan Vote: 3B – 2, LHP – 5, Closer – 2, Prospect – 5, SP – 23, Archer – 11, Chapman – 1, Beltre – 1, Reliever – 3, Hamels – 26, Cobb – 1, controllable young player – 3, Fulmer 4, Happ – 2, Machado – 10, Stroman – 8, Moustakas – 1, Trout – 1, Britton – 1

Which Phillies prospect is most likely to be traded?

Franklyn Kilome – 6
Mickey Moniak – 5
Arquimedes Gamboa – 4
Daniel Brito – 3
Roman Quinn – 3
Cornelius Randolph – 2
Dylan Cozens – 2
Adonis Medina – 2
Francisco Morales – 1
Drew Anderson – 1
JoJo Romero – 1

Fan Vote: Adam Haseley – 13, Adonis Medina – 13, Arquimedes Gamboa – 22, Daniel Brito – 3, Cornelius Randolph – 2, Dylan Cozens – 10, Franklyn Kilome – 33, JoJo Romero – 1, Scott Kingery – 2, Mickey Moniak – 13, Jhailyn Ortiz – 2, Roman Quinn – 12, Sixto Sanchez – 3, Thomas Eshelman – 1, Jesmuel Valentin – 5

When will the Phillies make the playoffs again?

2018 – 2 – 5.9%
2019 – 29 – 85.3%
2020 – 3 – 8.8%

Fan Vote: 2018 – 27 (15%), 2019 – 122 (67.8%), 2020 – 25 (13.9%), 2021 – 5 (2.8%), 2022 – 1 (0.6%)

Does Gabe Kapler manage the full season?

Yes – 33 – 97.1%
No – 1 – 2.9%

Fan Vote: Yes – 176 (97.2%), No – 5 (2.8%)

Bold Prediction for the 2018 Phillies:

• Vince Velasquez establishes himself as a solid #2/#3 pitcher on the back of an improved changeup
• The 2018 Phils post winning and losing streaks of at least 10 games.
• Vince Velazquez will end the season on the DL
• Seranthony Dominguez will be the closer by year’s end
• Jorge Alfaro wins NL Rookie of the Year
• Scott Kingery wins NL Rookie of the Year.
• Wild Card
• Jorge Alfaro hits 20 home runs.
• Thomas Eshelman makes more MLB starts than Pivetta, Lively, or Velasquez
• Two players finish top-3 in Rookie of the Year voting
• Jorge Alfaro hits 25 home runs.
• The Phillies finish 2nd in the NL East
• Nick Williams will be better than he was in 2017
• Scott Kingery plays more games for the Phillies than Cesar Hernandez
• They employ four of the top five NL ROY vote-getters (Crawford, Kingery and two of several potential others, I’ll say Eshelman and Seranthony)
• They miss the playoffs on the last day despite winning their game
• Phillies are in both the divisional and WC races at the deadline and are a hard buyer, but ultimately fall just short
• Tom Eshleman finishes third on team in IP
• Phillies: Jorge Alfaro provides plus defense all season long to go along with a better OBP than folks anticipate.
• Prospects: Cornelius Randolph breaks out. He benefits greatly from the Reading park and casual observers will over-rate by the end of the season.
• Nick Williams walks over 5% of the time
• Aaron Altherr hits 30 Home runs
• The Phillies won’t be in the wild card hunt, nor as good as many people think they are after signing Arrieta nd Kingery.
• I will enjoy this Phillies season
• One game out of a Wild Card spot
• The Phillies will finish in 2nd in the Division
• Wild Card contender until the last week of the season.
• Gabe Kapler has zero on-screen fights with players and other coaches.
• Mickey Moniak is traded away at some point in 2018.
• Rhys Hoskins All-Star
• Jorge Alfaro hits .270/.310/.450 with 20 HR. He’ll finish top 3 in ROY voting.
• Phillies will be in the wild card race until they get swept by the Rockies in the last week of the season
• Francisco Morales enters 2019 as a top-50 prospect in baseball
• Rhys Hoskins makes the All-star team
• Five regulars hit 20+ homers as the Phillies deploy one of the top NL offenses.