2017 Phillies Prediction Survey

The past few years I have done a prediction survey with people who write and talk about the Phillies and baseball in general. This year I got 31 responses to the survey, which included writers from The Good Phight, Crashburn Alley, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and others (including radio broadcasters). This year I forgot to put in a  mechanism for recording who voted, so all submissions are anonymous this year. In one more wrinkle I opened up the majority of questions to the public to vote on, and I have included those responses here as well (128 responses).

Not all voters voted for each category, so some vote totals may be below total voter count.

Who will be the Phillies best hitter in 2017?

Odubel Herrera – 20 – 64.5%
Maikel Franco – 5 – 16.1%
Tommy Joseph – 5 – 16.1%
Michael Saunders – 1 – 3.2%

Fan Vote: Odubel Herrera – 86 (68.2%), Maikel Franco – 28 (22.2%), Tommy Joseph – 9 (7.1%), Cesar Hernandez – (0.8%), Roman Quinn – 1 (0.8%), Michael Saunders – 1 (0.8%)

Who will be the Phillies best pitcher in 2017?

Jerad Eickhoff – 12 – 38.7%
Vincent Velasquez – 11 – 35.5%
Aaron Nola – 7 – 22.6%
Hector Neris – 1 – 3.2%

Fan Vote: Jerad Eickhoff – 58 (45.7%), Vincent Velasquez – 49 (38.6%), Aaron Nola -15 (11.8%), Jeremy Hellickson – 5 (3.9%)

Who will be the Phillies top hitting prospect at the end of 2017?

Mickey Moniak – 22 – 71%
J.P. Crawford – 3 – 9.7%
Jorge Alfaro – 3 – 9.7%
Scott Kingery – 3 – 9.7%

Fan Vote: Mickey Moniak – 65 (51.2%), Jorge Alfaro – 33 (26%), J.P. Crawford – 20 (15.7%), Scott Kingery – 8 (6.3%), Nick Williams – 1 (0.8%  )

Who will be the Phillies top pitching prospect at the end of 2017?

Sixto Sanchez – 24 – 77.4%
Franklyn Kilome – 5 – 16.1%
Kevin Gowdy – 1 – 3.2%
Adonis Medina – 1 – 3.2%

Fan Vote: Sixto Sanchez – 88 (69.8%), Franklyn Kilome – 26 (20.6%), Kevin Gowdy – 7 (5.6%), Adonis Medina – 4 (3.2), Nick Pivetta – 1 (0.8%)

Who will be the Phillies top rookie?

Roman Quinn – 17 – 54.8%
J.P. Crawford – 8 – 25.8%
Nick Williams – 5 – 16.1%
Jorge Alfaro – 1 – 3.2%

Fan Vote: Andrew Knapp – 12, Brock Stassi – 5, J.P. Crawford – 27, Jorge Alfaro – 16, Nick Pivetta – 1, Nick Williams – 14, Roman Quinn – 51

How Many Games will the Phillies win in 2017?

70 – 1
72 – 2
73 – 2
74 – 2
75 – 2
76 – 2
77 – 5
78 – 6
79 – 3
80 – 3
83 – 1
85 – 1

Fan Vote: 61 – 1, 65 – 1, 67 – 1, 68 – 2, 69 – 4, 72 – 5, 74 – 16, 75 – 12, 76 – 6, 77 – 17, 78 – 18, 79 – 11, 80 – 11, 81 – 4, 82 – 3, 83 – 3, 84 – 3, 88 – 1, 89 – 1, 162 – 1

Who will the Phillies trade?

Jeremy Hellickson – 26 – 86.7%
Clay Buchholz – 7 – 23.3%
Joaquin Benoit – 13 – 43.3%
Howie Kendrick – 10 – 33.3%
Michael Saunders – 12 – 43.3%
Hector Neris – 3 – 10%
Pat Neshek – 2 – 6.6%
Cesar Hernandez – 1 – 3.3%
Jesmuel Valentin – 1 – 3.3%

Fan Vote: Jeremy Hellickson – 95 (75.4%), Clay Buchholz – 58 (46%), Joaquin Benoit – 52 (41.3%), Howie Kendrick – 53 (42.1%), Michael Saunders – 51 (40.5%), Hector Neris – 12 (9.5%), Pat Neshek – 43 (34.1%), Cesar Hernandez – 28 (22.2%), Tommy Joseph – 1, Freddy Galvis – 2, Cameron Rupp -1, Zach Eflin – 1

Who is your favorite Phillies prospect to watch?

J.P. Crawford – 10
Jorge Alfaro – 4
Kyle Young – 1
Mickey Moniak – 2
Nick Pivetta – 1
Nick Williams – 2
Roman Quinn – 6
Scott Kingery – 3
Sixto Sanchez – 1

Fan Vote: Jorge Alfaro – 34, Brock Stassi – 1, Carlos Tocci – 1, Cord Sandberg – 1, Dylan Cozens – 8, J.P. Crawford – 21, Franklyn Kilome – 2, Rhys Hoskins  – 3, Scott Kingery – 6, Adonis Medina – 1, Mickey Moniak – 2, Nick Williams – 3, Roman Quinn – 23, Sixto Sanchez – 4 

Which Phillies prospect will break out in 2017?

Adonis Medina – 1
Arquimedez Gamboa – 3
Brock Stassi – 1
Cole Stobbe – 1
Cornelius Randolph – 3
J.P. Crawford – 1
Elniery Garcia – 2
Franklyn Kilome – 1
Kevin Gowdy – 1
Jhailyn Ortiz – 1
Jorge Alfaro – 1
Kyle Martin – 1
Luke Leftwich – 1
Mick Moniak – 1
Nick Williams – 4
Ricardo Pinto – 1
Roman Quinn – 1
Scott Kingery – 1
Seranthony Dominguez – 2
Sixto Sanchez – 2

Fan Vote: Scott Kingery – 10, Jorge Alfaro – 5, Arquimedez Gamboa – 2, Daniel Brito – 3, Cornelius Randolph – 11, Carlos Tocci – 2, Cole Stobbe – 4, J.P. Crawford – 3, Drew Anderson – 2, Kevin Gowdy – 4, Greg Pickett – 1, Rhys Hoskins – 1, Jhailyn Ortiz – 3, JoJo Romero – 1, Jonathan Guzman – 1, Joseph Pujols – 1, Josh Stephen – 1, Franklyn Kilome – 4, Mark Appel – 1, Adonis Medina – 1, Mickey Moniak – 9, Nick Pivetta – 3, Nick Williams  – 10, Roman Quinn – 10, Shane Watson – 1, Sixto Sanchez – 9, Thomas Eshelman – 1, Victor Arano – 1

Which minor league team are you most looking forward to?

Lehigh Valley IronPigs – 19
Reading Fightins – 1
Clearwater Threashers – 2
Lakewood BlueClaws – 9

Fan Vote: Lehigh Valley – 79 (65.8%), Reading – 11 (9.2%), Clearwater – 1 (0.8%), Lakewood – 25 (20.8%), Williamsport – 3 (2.5%), GCL – 1 (0.8%)

Who do the Phillies draft in June?

This question was horribly unfair, but most people responded with either best player available or college pitcher, with University of Florida’s Alex Faedo coming up most often. There were some hitters mentioned like Jake Burger, Jo Adell, and Jeren Kendall. Last year, Jason Groome dominated this list and no one had Mickey Moniak on their radar.

When will the Phillies make the playoffs again?

2018 – 10 – 32.3%
2019 – 15 – 48.4%
2020 – 6 – 19.4%

Fan Vote: 2017 – 2 (1.6%), 2018 – 43 (34.4%), 2019 – 66 (52.8%), 2020 – 12 (9.6%), 2021 – 2 (1.6%)

Do the Phillies extend Pete Mackanin?

Yes – 25 – 80.6%
No – 6 – 19.4%

Fan Vote: Yes – 101 (80.2%), No – 25 (19.8%)

Bold Prediction for the 2017 Phillies?

• Andrew Knapp supplants Cameron Rupp
• Aaron Nola makes the all star game
• Tommy Joseph becomes one of the premier power hitters in the league.
• Zach Eflin becomes a stable part of the rotation in the second half. Is that bold? It might not be bold. Let me know if you need something spicier.
• The Phillies starters will be as good as the Mets by rate but in significantly fewer innings
• Phillies stay within 5 games of the wild card until mid-September.
• They will be close enough to playoff contention at some point, that the fan base will be nervous about selling at the deadline.
• Michael Saunders gets MVP votes
• Nick Williams makes it to the bigs before Crawford
• A glorious bird is maimed by a flipped Odubel Herrera bat and is then accidentally trampled by Roman Quinn. It survives and takes Jeremy Hellickson’s eye in revenge, destroying his trade value in late July.
• The Phillies will finish in 3rd place after a tight race with the also-improved Atlanta Braves.
• Joseph hits 40 homers
• Nola and Velasquez finish in the top ten of the NL Cy Young voting.
• They end up being actually fun to watch in the second half.
• Tommy Joseph hits 35 HR
• Franco goes for 35HR-100RBI
• If he makes the 25-man roster, Brock Stassi will force a partial platoon and ultimately win the starting first baseman position.
• Nick Williams does not constantly generate cringe-worthy newspaper and radio hot takes (he plays pretty well)
• They’re going to be a lot of fun.
• They will win 2/3 of their games against the Mets
• Vince Velasquez is an All-Star
• Aaron Altherr puts up 4+ WAR
• The outfield will be remade in the second half with homegrowns, and will keep them in the wild card hunt until about September 20 or so.
• Tommy Joseph is an all-star first baseman
• Aaron Altherr leads the club in homers
• The Phillies will trade either Cesar Hernandez or Freddy Galvis by the end of the calendar year.
• The Phillies will be a .500 team for the first time in five years.
• They’re in the wild card race for the first half, before fading due to regression/sequencing/bad luck
• Tommy Joseph leads the league in HR.
• Nick Williams finished top 3 in Rookie of the Year voting.

Cover Photo by Baseball Betsy