2017 Evaluation: The Curious Case of Mickey Moniak

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While we are now less than a month away from the start of the baseball season, something has been quietly bothering me for a while now, and that is what do I feel about Mickey Moniak? His 2017 started out well, but ultimately ended poorly where to the point that many people from scouts, analysts, and fans have decided to jump ship. In fact I recall a mid-January afternoon where it felt like everybody on Twitter wanted to express their opinion on Moniak (I forget how it started). So I thought I would do one last 2017 eyewitness evaluation on maybe the most polarizing prospect in the Phillies system.

Mickey Moniak, OF

6’2″, 185 lb

Bats/Throws: L/R

Drafted in 1st round (#1 overall) by Phillies in 2016 MLB Draft

Team Played for: Lakewood (Low A/South Atlantic League)

Dates Seen: 4/13, 4/15 (DH), 4/30, 7/30, 9/3, 9/4

Eyewitness Stats: 6/24 (.250/.333/.375), 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, SB, 4 BB, 7 K, 2 SF

What the Numbers Say

Lakewood (Low A): 123 G, 509 PA, .236/.284/.341, 110 H, 22 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 44 RBI, 53 R, 11/18 SB, 28 BB (5.5%), 109 K (21.4%), 80 wRC+

Fielding (as CF): 115 G, 984 innings, 222 total chances, 212 putouts, seven outfield assists, three errors, two double plays turned, .986 Fld%

While many have called Moniak’s season a failure, it didn’t start out that way. Through May (199 PA), Moniak was hitting a .279/.333/.413 line with a 7% BB, 20.6% K. Things dipped a bit in June when he hit .255 with a .662 OPS in 101 PA. His BB rate dropped from 7% to 6.3% on the season, but his K rate actually incrementally improved to 20%.  His wRC+ dipped from 113 to 107 overall. But nothing dramatically changed.

But from July to the end of the season, things took a big turn. He ended up hitting .187/.230/.264 with just nine extra base hits (24 XBH prior to that) in 209 PA. He walked just 4.3% and struck out at 23.4% clip. His 21.4% strikeout rate ended up being just slightly better than league average in South Atlantic League (22%), while he unfortunately fell well below average in walks (5.5% vs 7.46% league). Discipline seemed to be an issue in the eyewitness games, Moniak had just eight of his 29 plate appearances last five plus pitches (27.6%) and seven going two pitches or less (24.1%). He averaged 3.48 pitches per plate appearance, which versus MLB standards is well below average (3.9 in 2017). Remember this was a player before the 2016 draft that was touted for his approach. While the dip in walks is concerning after the first two months, he didn’t strike out an absorbent amount either from June to season’s end (21.9%).

Left-handed pitchers gave him a big problem as he hit just .179/.236/.248 with six extra-base hits (no home runs) in 127 plate appearances. He struck out at a 26% clip and walked only five times (3.9%), compared to 19.9% K and 6% BB vs righties.

So where else could the numbers indicate what might have led there to a decline? One thing that I found interesting was how dramatic his numbers were in types of contact and what the numbers looked like between the first two months and the rest of the season:

As you can see above, Moniak’s line drive rate showed a 5% drop-off when June came about, whereas before he actually was just above the MLB average of 20.3% prior to that. But it’s clear that despite having that solid line drive rate, he didn’t put the ball in the air enough early on. The 2017 MLB average for ground ball and fly ball rates were 44.2% and 35.5%, respectively. While he ended up normalizing those rates in the second half, the problem with that is that when you but more balls in the air, the less luck you have to get a hit. His BABIP during the first two months was at .345 and that was significantly different in the last few months when he had a .259 BABIP.

Moniak ended up pulling the ball at a 43.6%, went up the middle of the field 26.7% of time, and hit the other way 29.7%. From the charts below, when the slump began, the pulled ground balls got worse and it became easier to shift against him. And while he hit more balls the other way during that stretch, none were of significance and were really just “can of corn” fly outs.

4/6-5/31
6/1-9/4

Tale of the Tape

Moniak is a bit more well built, but still somewhat slender in his 6’2″, 185 lb frame. He has a fairly upright stance and shows a pretty balanced and compact swing when he’s right. He doesn’t have a high leg kick, but more a quiet, smaller one. Moniak’s swing is geared more towards a line drive approach, but he started to under a few too many pitches during the second half of the season. Timing might have been part of that issue as it seemed like he got his foot down late a number of times.  There’s some people who have suggested that perhaps his bat speed slowed down a tick, and certainly that’s potentially plausible with the dramatic muscle gain. But just off of yearly video comparison, I didn’t see much to the contrary, more so than the increased number of unbalanced swings.

Moniak’s approach at the plate was the thing that was heralded the most when he was drafted #1 overall in 2016. And on the early onset, it did actually feel like he had a decent idea of the zone. As the season went on, he expanded the zone too often and got himself into some bad counts, leading to more poor contact and whiffs. Elevated fastballs and breaking balls gave him a ton of problems and that can be attributed to poor pitch recognition. But something bugs me about how some use the word “approach” in baseball. I think there are a number of people who would associate this word as if he will be walking at a 10%+ rate. It’s important to note though that approach also means fighting off tough pitches and working counts, and about 50% of the time I saw a good approach taken. But that other 50% he had some ugly swings in there. Moniak doesn’t need to draw the walk, as beneficial as it is, so much more as he needs to fight or lay off of tough offspeed offerings and can put strong contact when he puts the ball in play.

From a base-running perspective it was pretty much on par to what was expected of him. He’s likely a 55-60 grade runner still when he finishes filling out.

Defensively, there have been some who have criticized it harshly, saying that he is no longer an elite centerfielder. Other than some sun fighting and a maybe a bad read or two, there wasn’t anything too outrageous. The critizicm of his arm strength is probably the one that got me the most. He looked to me out of the draft to have a 40-45 grade arm strength projection. Some were going to a 50-55 grade and I just felt like he was never going to be that. Still the throws were okay. He lollipopped some but it wasn’t detrimental.

What Lies Ahead

There’s a number of factors to considered before we go with the bust label or freak out the Phillies made the wrong pick. For one, Moniak played basically most of the season at 19 years old (birthday was May 13) and the league average in the South Atlantic League was 21.5 and every single one of his trips to the plate was against more older arms. At the time of the draft, the options were AJ Puk, Jay Groome, Nick Senzel and Kyle Lewis. It never felt like they were ever serious on Senzel (even if he fit their profile), Groome was a high school pitcher (they are rarely picked #1) and Puk and Lewis had some of their own concerns mechanically and with consistency. It seemed like a prime opportunity to grab a talent like Moniak and pilfer the next few rounds with over-slot draft picks. I can’t really fault them for going that route in a not so clear cut top of the draft like 2015 or 2017. And finally, most importantly, it was his first full season. Even though he packed on nearly 20 lbs of muscle during the offseason prior, he still was pretty sleight and still had to deal with the daily grind of the baseball season and his new body.

If Moniak wasn’t #1, we’d look at him the same way we look at 2015 first rounder, Cornelius Randolph and allow him some time to figure it out, particularly with the power. It took Randolph this past season in year three, to be able to hit for more power (13 HR, .152 ISO), and really most of that power arrived when he hit more fly balls in the 2nd half of the season. So Moniak should be able to hit for more power this year if we follow the simple trajectory that most high school position players go through in pro ball.

Moniak, as of this moment, looks like a platoon outfielder at the very least. His ceiling though is still of that of a regular centerfielder who will produce an average walk rate and hit for more doubles power than home run power. So think along the lines of a .275/.340/.430 type of player, kind of in-line with 2016 Odubel Herrera, if we are doing Phillies comparison. And a top 10-12 centerfielder is still a good development. If he can hone into more home run power potential (20-25), he’s a likely a top six centerfielder one day.

The one question to answer while in camp for the next month is where he will start. In my opinion it probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to start him back in Lakewood to get him hot. This would be the logical thing to do with most struggling first round high school picks. But with the #1 overall tag on him, it’s possible he will be the centerfielder in Clearwater in April. The games on the backfields and the confidence he shows will determine his fate if that will be the case.

 

Photo of Mickey Moniak by Baseball Betsy

3 thoughts on “2017 Evaluation: The Curious Case of Mickey Moniak”

  1. “… if we are doing Phillies comparison.”

    Am I the only one who always thinks of Moniak’s potential as “a poor man’s Garry Maddox?”

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