The Draft Philes: The Day 1 Big Board

After nearly five weeks, 41 draft profiles, and hundreds of hours staring at Youtube videos and eyewitness reports, the Draft Philes has now reached its big day: the 1st Day of the MLB Draft. Tonight at 7 pm EST, you can watch the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft on MLB Network or MLB.com. But of course, I know there are only two selections that you care about, the Phillies’ picks at #8 and #45. Below is my my 1st and 2nd round big boards, based on the team’s current philosophy, price tag, and potential upside.

1st Round Big Board

  1. Austin Beck, OF
  2. Pavin Smith, 1B
  3. Jordon Adell, OF
  4. Alex Faedo, RHP
  5. David Peterson, LHP
  6. Adam Haseley, OF
  7. Keston Hiura, 2B/OF
  8. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
  9. Trevor Rogers, LHP

Pavin Smith has been getting the most buzz recently, but as I have pointed out before, it is not practical to be taking a 1B-only prospect in the top 10, or as Matt Winkelman thinks not even in the 1st round at all. Though I think the Phillies would try to make him an OF, which likely won’t work, but the bat itself, the potential savings and their philosophy has him at a firm #2 in my book. As for my #1, I profiled Beck in my very first Draft Philes, and I was impressed quickly. While he may have to make some mechanical tweaks and work on aggression at the plate, the chance to get a five tool player in this draft is very tempting. I have flipped Beck and Adell back and forth between #1 and #3 for the last 48 hours, and it ultimately came down to the talks around Beck taking an under slot with the Braves and A’s, who are before the Phillies pick. If Beck’s gone and Adell and Smith are on the board, it is very close. The Phillies might end up taking Smith which is why he’s #2, but I think they need to take a gamble on Adell’s upside if they can get him to agree to a favorable under slot deal. If the Phillies decide they do not want any of these three, they should turn to Faedo or get Peterson on a value deal. I am still not as high on Haseley as everybody else is because I think he ends up in the same boat as Randolph and Moniak, just more developed at this current state. Hiura, who I did not profile, is a really good hitter but he is going to need Tommy John surgery, and I am split between whether he will be a 2B or LF. Matt and I had an interesting discussion after Keith Law linked them in his latest mock. We concluded that if the savings are big enough, say $1-$1.5M, and he can play 2B post-surgery, than Hiura would be a solid pick. This would allow the team go after a high school pitcher who commands big money in the 2nd round. After watching Bukauskas’ end to the season and recognizing flaws in his mechanics, I have lost interest in him. Rogers is on this list if we want big savings and LHP depth, and if he somehow narrowly slips through the cracks to the 45th pick, the Phillies should absolutely take him.

2nd Round Big Board

  1. Michael Mercado, RHP
  2. Tristan Beck, RHP
  3. Seth Romero, LHP
  4. Hagen Danner RHP/C
  5. M.J. Melendez, C
  6. Alex Lange, RHP
  7. Steven Jennings, RHP
  8. Brian Miller, OF
  9. Wil Crowe, RHP

If the Phillies save enough money, high school SS Brady McConnell and RHP Blayne Enlow would be at the top of my list, because the Phillies might be able to pull them away from their college commitments to Florida and LSU. But they will most likely be gone at #45. That said, Mercado and Beck’s upside are good enough to warrant an overpay and if the Phillies have $1 million in savings from their 1st rounder, they should go this route. I like Romero and think he just needs to be in a fresh environment at this point after a rough relationship with his coach and teammates at Houston. Danner, is another I never profiled, because he will most likely be gone due to being a unique two-way player. People are falling in love with Luis Campusano enough so, that he might be picked in the top 40, but I actually like Melendez a bit better in a weak catching crop. Lange and Jennings both would be solid pick for the Phillies. Miller is definitely my favorite college bat as a 2nd round choice, but just like Haseley, he is too similar to Moniak and Randolph.  Crowe would be a good upside play. He could have been a 1st round pick if not for elbow surgery.

 

So who will be the Phillies pick tonight? I think we are all pretty anxious at this point and Matt and I will be covering it thoroughly. Remember to check out the Draft Tracker to see every Phillies pick, daily recaps and all the past Draft Philes. Have a Happy MLB Draft Day everybody!

Author: Jeff Israel

1 comment

  1. Tob

    Great coverage, Jeff. The Phils can never have too many catchers in the system. I’d love to see Melendez at #45. Here’s hoping they can find a Goldschmidt in the 9th round like the DBacks did.

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