Rule 5 Preview: Who Could We Lose

The Rule 5 draft wraps up the winter meetings tomorrow.  The Phillies finalized their 40 man protections almost a month ago and look to be more in the category of picking players over being picked.  However, the Rule 5 draft is weird and scouts sometimes see players in a different role going forward than what … Read more

Arizona Fall League Recap – Pitchers

I already touched on the two hitters that the Phillies sent to the Arizona Fall League.  The Phillies sent 5 pitchers to the AFL, and while they lack the potential impact of Roman Quinn, they are very interesting group to think about.  They included 3 AA relievers in Nefi Ogando, Colton Murray, and Ryan O’Sullivan, as well as Hi-A left handed starting pitcher, turned reliever, Ethan Stewart, and then former top prospect and shoulder surgery victim Adam Morgan.

Adam Morgan:

6 G 16.1 IP 6.61 ERA 26 H 17 R 12 ER 3 BB 11 K

I ranked Morgan as the #2 prospect in the Phillies system after the 2012 season.  At the time Morgan sported a 90-92 mph fastball that he could run up to 94, pairing that with a plus slider, a changeup with plus potential, and an average curveball.  However after two years of shoulder injuries and surgery, Morgan returned to the mound in the AFL with only 2 starts in instructs under his belt.  Morgan was very hittable in the AFL, the fastball was normally 86-88 touching 89 and in one start he was 87-89 and reportedly getting as high as 92.  He was almost exclusively fastball-changeup with limited sliders.  It was good to see Morgan on a mound again, but we will have to see what the stuff looks like in the spring before knowing what he will be going forward.

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Post Season Minor League Mailbag

I have been slowly build mailbag questions for a while waiting until I had enough to answer them all, and here it is.  Like always there great questions here.

Christopher Smith (@shindaga7225): Next prospect to make an impact that has not been placed on 40 man roster ie Franco?

Dan (@Sixers_Fan1243): Chance Nola pitches for Philly next year?

I have to go with Aaron Nola as the answer to the first question.  Jesse Biddle will get his 40 man spot this offseason, but Nola has more impact long term.  In an ideal world Nola has 100% chance to arrive in Philadelphia in 2015.  He was the most advanced starting pitcher in the 2015 draft.  The reason this is not 100% chance is that there is a small chance he won’t be ready, but a slightly larger chance he gets hurt.  Nola is a freak in his delivery it works really well for him, but pitchers get hurt for entirely mysterious reasons.  But if Nola stays healthy next year there is probably a 90%+ chance he ends up in the majors at some point.  If everything goes fairly well I would expect him to debut at some point between the middle of June and the All-Star game.

If you are looking for the sleeper guy, Crawford should be in AA next year and the jump over AAA is always in play.  If Crawford tears it up in AA and shows above average defense, there is a chance he could make the majors in 2015 if there is a major Rollins injury or trade.  It is much more likely he doesn’t get there until 2016, but he is so advanced he could make the majors early and then develop there.

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2014 Clearwater Threshers Recap

Team: Clearwater Threshers
Record: 49-89
Standing: 6th in North Division (First Half), 4th in North Division (Second Half)

Top Hitter Stat Lines:

Peter Lavin – 54 G – 6 HR – 5 SB – .292/.344/.450
J.P. Crawford – 63 G – 8 HR – 10 SB – .275/.352/.407
Roman Quinn – 88 G – 7 HR – 32 SB – .257/.343/.370
Brian Pointer – 123 G – 15 HR – 16 SB – .246/.336/.419

Top Pitcher Stat Lines:

Aaron Nola – 31.1 IP – 3.16 ERA – 5 BB – 30 K
Cody Forsythe – 35.2 IP – 2.27 ERA – 11 BB – 47 K
Mark Leiter Jr. – 64.2 IP – 4.31 ERA – 15 BB – 56 K
Miguel Nunez – 122.1 IP – 4.49 ERA – 44 BB – 95 K

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Roman Quinn Headlines Phillies Arizona Fall League Participants

Here is your Phillies Arizona Fall League participants, outside of Quinn there are a lot of relievers trying to get protected from Rule 5 draft.

Roman Quinn – CF – Clearwater – .252/.330/.361 6 HR 30 SBs

Roman Quinn has returned from an Achilles injury better than anyone could have predicted, with his speed still intact.  In deference to J.P. Crawford, Quinn has moved to center field and the fall should give him plenty of reps in the outfield.  Quinn should be an outstanding defender in centerfield with his elite speed and plus arm.  The bat is now the main focus as Quinn will need to become comfortable from both sides of the plate and begin to show more ability to drive the ball.

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Reliever Spotlight

I am one of the first to admit that reliever prospects get pushed down prospect lists and they are often overlooked if they do not have closer potential.  This is for many good reasons related to potential major league value, but it does leave a gap in our coverage.  So to close that gap some here are three relievers who have the chance to be impactful in the majors:

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