The minor league playoffs kicked off in earnest yesterday with the Clearwater Threshers winning Game 1 of their series. Today the Lakewood BlueClaws and Lehigh Valley IronPigs get their turn. Lakewood enters the playoffs having gone 87-51 on the year and winning both halves of the season in the SAL North. Much like their friends in the Florida State League, the BlueClaws have been carried by their pitching. Their offense on the season has been close to league average (the BlueClaws do play in a very pitcher friendly stadium), but their pitching ran a team ERA of 2.74, a full half run better than anyone else. Every time a dominant pitcher was promoted, another one would come up and take their place. The BlueClaws will enter the series having lost their two best relievers (Dohy and Russ) and two of their best starters (Rosso and Parkinson) to promotion, and their ace on the year Will Stewart to innings limits, but they still will send a formidable group to the mound.
Lineup
The Lakewood lineup is not going to scare anyone with it’s season numbers, but that does overshadow a bit of the talent present on the roster. Rodolfo Duran should handle most of the catching. He is a good defender who is in the middle of a streaky breakout year. His 18 home runs lead the team, and he has two monster months under his belt, he also has two months with sub .450 OPS. He won’t be on base much, but he does provide power. On the infield, the BlueClaws have mostly settled with Dalton Guthrie and Nick Maton at second and shortstop respectively. Both are solid defenders with moderate offensive abilities. Maton has struggled down the stretch, but he can get on base and will get his share of extra base hits. Guthrie has shown some on base abilities, but has much less power upside. In the outfield, the BlueClaws are likely to deploy 2018 5th round pick Matt Vierling next to a pair of Latin American teenagers. Vierling had a great August and will flash 5 tools (though stolen bases have been mostly poor in pro ball). Center fielder Simon Muzziotti doesn’t have any power, but he does have plus plus speed, a great glove, and a real knack for contact. He should hit at the top of the lineup and cause plenty of traffic on the bases. Jhailyn Ortiz has more talent than anyone else on the roster with plus plus raw power that allows him to impact the game in ways that most of his teammates cannot. He has had a disaster of a second half as his strikeout numbers ballooned, and his power waned. However, if he can get his approach in check, he could carry the team through a series or two. The wild card is the BlueClaws best hitter in Jake Scheiner. A third baseman by position, Scheiner has played a lot of first and left this season. In the second half he has hit .330/.428/.512 with 31 walks to 36 strikeouts. He could play first with Jose Antequera playing third, or he could play third with Madison Stokes or Gregori Rivero getting the first base reps.
Rotation
Game 1: Andrew Brown
Game 2: Spencer Howard
Game 3: Damon Jones
You would think that losing Stewart, Parkinson, and Rosso would be a huge problem for the BlueClaws, but when you have guys like Brown step up it is hard to miss a beat. Brown doesn’t have overpowering stuff (a fastball that tops out at 91 and a solid changeup), but he has an ERA below 2.00 over his last 10 games. He limits contact and keeps runners off the bases, and so far that has been a recipe for success. Spencer Howard is the most conventionally good pitcher in the rotation, and it is somewhat surprising that he comes out of the season with a 3.78 ERA. Howard tied for the SAL lead in strikeouts thanks to a fastball that will sit 93-97, touching 98 and a group of secondary pitches that might feature a plus slider and changeup. Consistency and efficiency have been the problem for Howard, who can go 6+ with 1 or fewer walk and 8+ strikeouts, and also can walk 4 and not make it out of the 5th inning. He has been much better in the second half, and could turn in a big performance or two. After hanging with Stewart, Rosso, and Parkinson in ERA for the first half, Jones has had a real stinker of a second half. He is striking out fewer batters and was even briefly relegated to the bullpen. He will top out on the mid 90s from the left side, but lacks the command and secondaries to be truly dominant. He will get a start at home where he has a 1.68 ERA in 11 starts. Should the BlueClaws advance, they have some interesting options in a championship series. LHP Kyle Young is an oddity at 7’0″ tall, allowing his pedestrian stuff to play up and be dominant, but he also is coming back from injury and is not fully stretched out. RHP Gustavo Armas is 22 and is more of a command and control righty with ok stuff, but he has been great for the BlueClaws including a 8 IP 1 H 1 ER 0 BB 8 K performance on August 23. RHP Julian Garcia moved to the rotation late in the year and has a 1.64 ERA in 8 starts with 56 strikeouts in 40.1 innings. RHP James McArthur came up from Williamsport for a start late, and the 12th round pick in the 2018 draft has allow 2 earned runs in 33.1 pro innings (only 16 hits as well). Like Young he also is not fully stretched out and could be more of a piggy backer.
Bullpen
The BlueClaws bullpen is all about the back end. Since moving to the bullpen in June, RHP Connor Brogdon has been a revelation. In 20 second half appearances he has gone 30.1 innings while striking out 40 to 6 walks. He is carrying a 0.89 ERA over that period where he has been setting up one of the best strikeout pitchers in the minor leagues, Zach Warren. Warren struggled early in the year, walking nearly a batter per inning. Like Brogdon, he has been on a roll in the second half, putting up a 0.68 ERA in 26.1 innings with 12 walks to 56 strikeouts. In August and September that numbers is 29 strikeouts to 4 walks in 12 innings. He has converted all of his save chances in that time period. It isn’t smoke and mirrors for Warren either, as he matches a fastball that will sit 93-94, touching 95 with a bat missing curveball. The rest of the bullpen is pretty light. Keylan Killgore (17th round 2018 draft) was dominant for Williamsport, but has only recorded two outs for Lakewood. Luis Carrasco throws really hard (he was sitting 94-98 late in the year), and his fastball is a nasty pitch. However, his command can be a problem, and he doesn’t really miss bats, even if he is a ground ball machine. Luis Ramirez and Tyler Fallwell are more multi inning filler. There is a chance Julian Garcia or Gustavo Armas bails out this group, but really they need to get to the 7th inning with a lead so they can turn it over to their two headed monster.
Bench
Minor league benches in general tend not to be places of depth and impact, so expecting a bunch from the BlueClaws might be asking a lot. The group will need to provide the DH and that role is probably going to come from the backup catcher spot. Colby Fitch can get on base and has some pop and Gregori Rivero has some pop (but no on base). Jose Antequera is more of a glove than a bat, but he can draw a walk and make some contact. Madison Stokes has not been good in his 27 games in Lakewood, but he has a large school college track record and hit well in the NYPL. Josh Stephen ended the year hitting well, but his season numbers leave a lot to be desired. He could see time in an OF corner, pushing Jhailyn Ortiz to DH for a game or two.
Overall Outlook
The BlueClaws aren’t going to be running out the pitching staff that carried them this far, but Brown is a solid starter and Howard may be dominant. They are going to need Brogdon and Warren to really nail down the late innings. On offense, Vierling and Scheiner are going to need to consistently have solid games, and then hope that Muzziotti, Maton, and Guthrie can do enough to scrape across some runs while they wait and see which version of Duran and Ortiz show up. Given their abilities to get hot, Duran and Ortiz could carry the offense for a series. They also could run 3 strikeout games every night out. The regular season BlueClaws were one of the best teams in the minors, so they should be favored, but they are far from a lock.