Revisiting Pre-Season Minor League Predictions

It took everyone recapping their major league predictions yesterday for me to remember that I made minor league predictions at the beginning of the year.  So before I forget again, lets see how wrong I was about things.  The original list was published on Phuture Phillies, feel free to peruse the comments for others predictions and opinions as well.

1. Both Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle do not exhaust their prospect eligibility.  Both are not called up until rosters expand.  Biddle puts up good numbers but is blocked in the major league level and left to make adjustments in AAA.

The first part was right, neither Biddle or Franco exhausted their eligibility this year, and Franco did not come up until rosters expanded.  As for Biddle, he neither put up good numbers, nor was he blocked at the major league level.  I want to give myself partial credit, but I really blew the Biddle prediction.

2.  Yoel Mecias comes back healthy and is a borderline Top 5 prospect in the system.  He is promoted to Clearwater after dominating Lakewood for a few starts.

So Yoel Mecias didn’t get to Clearwater, and he wasn’t totally lights out, but he is back healthy and the stuff was starting to return.  I will say it now, I think Yoel Mecias will end 2015 as a Top 100 prospect in baseball.  He is currently featured in my Top 10 prospects in the Phillies system, in the group right outside the Top 5.

3. Roman Quinn plays SS in Clearwater when he is back on the field, the Phillies begin experimenting with him at 2B after J.P. Crawford is promoted at the beginning of August.

It wasn’t 2B, but he was moved to CF when Crawford came up earlier than I expected.  I like Roman Quinn a lot, and after some convincing this year I have been convinced that the combination of speed and arm strength is a better fit in CF anyway.

4. Kelly Dugan‘s walk rate rebounds to pre-Reading levels.  He makes his debut in August after the Phillies trade Marlon Byrd to the Detroit Tigers.

The only thing I got right here is that Kelly Dugan put up a 9.7% BB%.  Fun fact: Kelly Dugan put up exactly a 9.7% BB% in both Lakewood and Clearwater.  I still think Dugan would have forced the issue on the major league level had he stayed healthy.  I think a lot of fans are sleeping on Dugan, the kid can hit, the power dip corresponded to a conscious effort to develop the ability to go to all fields.  I don’t know if he does it in Philly, but I really like Dugan.

5.  Jose Pujols takes the spotlight in Williamsport with his home run numbers, his strikeout is still well over 25%.  Prospect evaluators still have him behind both Sandberg and Grullon on the team.

Well Jose put up the HR numbers in the GCL and did strikeout a lot.  He is mostly definitely behind Grullon, but I think him vs Sandberg is a real discussion.  I will be the high man on Pujols this offseason, but I have received more glowing reports than some sources have.

6.  Both Perci Garner and Hoby Milner are moved to the bullpen full time by midseason, Garner is consideration for a callup when the rosters expand.

Garner went to the bullpen and stunk, Milner did not go to the bullpen and stunk.  I don’t think either are starting pitchers in the majors and have a lot of work to do to be middle relievers.

7.  Severino Gonzalez struggles as both his walk rate and home run rate climb.  He continues to have a decent strikeout rate.

Severino actually walked the same number of guys per 9 innings he did in 2013, but he struck out a whole lot less, and yes that home run rate spiked.  This Severino might be a little worse than the real Severino, but he is still a #5 starter/long reliever for me.  It was good to see him through 158.2 healthy innings.

8.  Carlos Tocci is promoted to Clearwater in July, Jiandido Tromp is the full time CF in Lakewood until the end of the season.

I am always the eternal Tocci optimist.  Instead of being promoted in July, Tocci wrecked the SAL, before returning to earth and slumping through August.  Tocci will finally be on a weight program this offseason.

9.  Jim Murphy continues to put up good numbers in Lehigh Valley, philly.com runs articles on why he is better than Darin Ruf and the Phillies should demote Ruf and bring up Murphy.

Jim Murphy hit .240/.330/.391 and philly.com continued to praise Ruf and bash the Phillies for “misusing” him.  Instead Ruf put up 0.1 bWAR enroute to hitting .235/.310/.402.  Maybe next year we will keep the snide remarks out, or get better at predicting the breakout 1B (like Jake Fox this year).

10. Next year’s Top 10:

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. #7 Pick
  3. Maikel Franco
  4. Yoel Mecias
  5. Jesse Biddle
  6. Roman Quinn
  7. Deivi Grullon
  8. Carlos Tocci
  9. Kelly Dugan
  10. Cord Sandberg

My best prediction by far.  As it stands 9 of the 10 names are in the first draft of the Top 10 (Sandberg misses in favor of Matt Imhof), and 4 of the 10 are in the same position.

Author: Matt Winkelman

Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has appeared on Phuture Phillies, The Good Phight, and TheDynastyGuru.