Kelly Dugan (Diamondbacks)

Name: PLAYER NAME
Twitter Handle:
From: HOMETOWN
School: SCHOOL
Position: POSBats/Throws: B/T
Drafted: NTH ROUND, NTH OVERALL PICK
Year Acquired by Phillies: YYYY
Born: YYYY-MM-DD
Height: X’ XX”Weight: XXX lbs
Signed: YYYY-MM-DDBonus: $XXXXXXX
Options Remaining: X
Rule 5 Eligible: YYYY
MiLB Free Agency: YYYY

Stats: MiLB | B-Ref | Fangraphs | Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | MLBFarm

Pre Draft:

Dugan is a switch hitting first baseman for the same high school that produced top prospect Giancarlo Stanton in 2007. Dugan is committed to Pepperdine. Some teams think that he should end up in the outfield long term and he has could power potential and is a slightly better hitter from the left side.

Scouting Report:

2014:

Hit: There is some length in Dugan’s swing and an uppercut that keeps it from being in the zone for very long. But he has great bat speed and he has toned down the uppercut in 2014 to work on being able to hit the ball to all fields. The early returns are that he can go with pitches the opposite way, at least for doubles and line drive power. Dugan takes to coaching real well and ever since abandoning switch hitting in spring 2010 he has seen his contact improve. The limitations to the swing itself limit the ultimate hit upside, but I really trust the approach and the process. Current: 45/Future Potential: 55

Power: The power output took a step back in 2014 as he worked through using the whole field, but there is plus pull power in the swing generated from upper body strength, great bat speed, and the uppercut in his swing. If it comes together with the hit tool he could be a guy pushing 20 HRs a year in his peak. The key will be if he can translate it away from the pull side to be more well rounded. Current: 45/Future Potential: 60

Glove: Dugan is not particularly fast, be he runs great routes in right field and is a smart defender overall. He is not going to win any gold gloves but he could play at a plus level if he keeps what speed he has right now. Current: 55/Future Potential: 60

Arm: Dugan doesn’t have a laser attached at the shoulder but he has an accurate plus arm and can make all the throws in right field. Current: 60

Speed: It is below average speed on skinny legs. Current: 40

Profile: There is a lot to like with Dugan because he is fairly good at a lot of things. He lacks a standout skill, but he takes to coaching well and has made tangible strides in the past 2 years to becoming a more complete player. The big question is health. Some of his injuries have been freak accidents, but he has had recurring oblique injuries and in general just can’t stay on the field. If he can it is a solid regular profile that could be in the majors by mid-2015 and there is room that it could be a little more than that too.

2015 Preseason:

Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Medium – The largest worry with Dugan is whether he can actually stay healthy for a full year, something he has been unable to do.  He has hit at every level and continues to make large strides with the bat.
Summary:  In 2013 Dugan put together his the best statistical season of his career, but a 2.2% BB% after reaching AA was a glaring problem.  Dugan answered the questions about the low walk rate in 2014 with a 9.7% BB% while seeing his strikeout rate drop to its lowest percentage since 2011.  His power numbers did drop off in 2014 as the Phillies focused on removing some of the uppercut in his swing, adding the ability to line the ball to all fields.  The results show up in the numbers in terms of contact type and location of balls hit:

GLFCFRFGBOFBLD
April-June237.40%16.70%22.20%64.80%22.20%7.40%
July3015.50%21.40%17.90%46.40%32.10%19.10%
August2320.00%21.70%15.00%46.70%30.00%21.70%

Dugan should be able to add this all-fields approach to his ability to hit for power, making him a more complete player.  Outside of hitting, Dugan is a solid right fielder with good route running and a plus arm.  I really like Dugan’s ability to make contact, and while none of his tools are flashy, he does a lot of things very well.  Dugan should start the year in AAA, and he is already on the 40 man roster, so a midseason call-up is possible, with a September call-up almost definite.

Articles:

Rankings:

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2010:

#27 Prospect in Phillies System – Baseball America

2011:

#28 Prospect in Phillies System – Baseball America

#26 Prospect in Phillies System – Phuture Phillies

Upon first looking at just the numbers I had Dugan much higher on this list. However, his year was driven by an unsustainable BABIP given his high strikeout rate. There are things to like, Dugan walked at a good rate and made good contact. After his injury he played a good right field with a plus arm. At first base he is little more than an org guy and will need to stick in the outfield.

2014:

#17 Prospect in Phillies System – Baseball America

#4 Prospect in Phillies System – Baseball Prospectus

#4 Prospect in Phillies System – ESPN

#5 Prospect in Phillies System – Phillies Minor Thoughts

There is a lot of mixed opinion about Dugan. His numbers have been very good in the minors, but he stopped walking in Reading. He puts up good power numbers, but does not have a prototypical thick, strong lower half. He is a bit slow in the outfield but makes up for it in feel and instincts. Dugan’s floor is a 4th outfielder, and his ceiling is an everyday regular. I like the overall profile even without the sexy tools, and I trust the plate discipline returning given Dugan’s cerebral approach to the game. More than anything I think Dugan is going to hit, and that makes me more confident in him than many players on this list.

2015:

#20 Prospect in Phillies System – Baseball America

#7 Prospect in Phillies System – Baseball Prospectus

#11 Prospect in Phillies System – Fangraphs

#8 Prospect in Phillies System – Phillies Minor Thoughts

In 2013 Dugan put together his the best statistical season of his career, but a 2.2% BB% after reaching AA was a glaring problem. Dugan answered the questions about the low walk rate in 2014 with a 9.7% BB% while seeing his strikeout rate drop to its lowest percentage since 2011. His power numbers did drop off in 2014 as the Phillies focused on removing some of the uppercut in his swing, adding the ability to line the ball to all fields. The results show up in the numbers in terms of contact type and location of balls hit:

Scouting Data:

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Injury History:

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Video:

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4 comments

  1. allentown1

    It’s the very rare guy who hits better in Lakewood than Reading. Some of the difference is BABIP, but his HR power is down. Even for a corner OF, 12 HR in Lakewood is very good. Even in a cut-short season at Reading, 5 HR is not so good. He improved his K-rate in 2014, but he looks like a guy who peaked in A-ball.

  2. Murray

    The reduced K rate suggests to me that Dugan changed his approach after only hitting 260 the previous year at AA and wanted to work on contact. Unfortunately he only got 290 plate appearances after 470 the previous year. I think the power will come back in 2015 but with an increase in K%. The big thing with Dugan is whether he can stay on the field. he shows the ability to play when he’s on the field but he needs to get 500 ABs in a season and show that he’s durable.

  3. Aron

    I am not sure how the potential to push 20 HR a year at his peak rates a 60. Even in this day of reduced offensive output his power potential is only 55.

    • Romus

      MLB.com actually grades Dugan as a 50 Power.
      Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45

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