The Phillies made their first move of what should be a busy offseason by trading former first round pick and many time top prospect J.P. Crawford along with Carlos Santana to the Seattle Mariners for SS Jean Segura, RHP Juan Nicasio, and LHP James Pazos. For all of turmoil that got the deal to this place, the pieces are fairly simple to slot in here. Segura becomes the Phillies everyday shortstop (minus things involving Machado), Nicasio should be in the opening day bullpen, and Pazos has an option left so he can fit where needed. Meanwhile, Rhys Hoskins shifts to first base and the outfield because a lot more open.
With no money changing hands, the Phillies save money in 2020, but pay more in 2019, and then for the remainder of the Segura deal. Given how reasonable his deal is, this doesn’t really affect their money going forward, and is neutral enough for 2019, that it doesn’t change any other plans. Nicasio is part of the main baggage back. He has one year and between 9 and 10 million left on his deal. His underlying numbers where great last year, but his ERA and his health wasn’t. He is probably an upgrade on Tommy Hunter and is definitely an upgrade on Luis Garcia. The Phillies are looking to move one or both of Hunter and Neshek, so Nicasio fits right into a group of a good righties with Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano, Hector Neris, and Seranthony Dominguez. They still lack a Closer, but there is a lot of ways to get to the 9th inning. The bullpen also lacks lefties, with only Adam Morgan and Austin Davis left standing. Neither is great, and neither is Pazos who is coming off a down year. But Pazos has an option left and before a drop late last year, he threw hard. Neither Nicasio or Pazos move the needle, but they are interesting depth pieces.
Carlos Santana was brought on to stabilize the Phillies lineup last season. Unfortunately he destabilized their defense, with Rhys Hoskins unable to hack it in left field. He is a fine player, but probably slightly overpaid. The Phillies will miss his on base abilities, but moving Hoskins backs to first opens up space for future deals.
Jean Segura will take over and stabilize the 2018 Phillies’ biggest weakness. Segura isn’t a great defender at short, but he is totally fine. He is a good, but not great hitter in aggregate. He doesn’t walk a ton, but he rarely strikes out, has decent power, and can steal some bases. Overall that has translated to 3-5 WAR a year in his good seasons. At this point he becomes the Phillies second best hitter, and gives them something they lacked in a guy who could just consistently hit the ball.
That brings it all to the big piece of the trade, J.P. Crawford. Crawford looked special from the minute the Phillies drafted him. His approach was too advanced for the low minors, and he blitzed up to AA, despite some injury stumbles. Along the way, his bat never really fully came along, but his star stayed bright, as the real jewel of the Phillies rebuild. After two years stumbling through the high minors the Phillies gave him the opening day SS job in 2018, and it could not have gone worse. Crawford’s season was sabotaged by injuries, defensive issues, offensive issues, and a team that just didn’t want to commit to him. The Phillies seem to have become the low team on Crawford, particularly his defense, elevating Scott Kingery to shortstop above him. There just never seemed to be a good fit, despite a skillset that seemed to match what the new Phillies FO valued. Once it became clear that Crawford was not part of the Phillies plans, the question became, how much value did he actually have? The answer it turned out, was quite a bit. While not the top 15 prospect he once was, the Phillies got value that easily equaled a top 50 prospect or better (especially given that Crawford has burned a year of control). He should be the star of the Mariners’ rebuild, a high OBP, good glove SS who might hit 10-15 home runs a year and put up total value close to what Segura is providing now.
That is the key point of all of this. The Phillies are ready to go, and they had too many players who weren’t. In Kingery and Crawford they had two former top prospects who weren’t MLB ready for a team that needs MLB contributors. The Phillies couldn’t give Crawford the ABs he needed, and may not be able to find room for Kingery either, so they turned Crawford into a guy who instantly gives them another threat in their lineup. That coupled with the move of Hoskins to first base, clears up the first major need of the Phillies offseason, which was to make their roster makes sense.
Right now the Phillies have an appropriate player standing at each position. The upgrades make sense now, whether that is Franco out in trade and convincing Manny Machado to win a bunch of gold gloves at third base, or signing Bryce Harper and letting Nick Williams play left field, because there are clear spots for things to go. The Phillies still need to figure out second base and what to do with Scott Kingery, but that is not a decision they need to make tomorrow.
Once you account for the Phillies being done with J.P. Crawford, this is an easy win of a deal for the Phillies. It is not a deal that makes an offseason, but it is a fine one to open it with. Hopefully, Crawford goes on to flourish with the Mariners, having written about him from the draft to now, I wish for nothing but the best for him.