Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to add players to their 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Thanks to a deep college class in the 2017 draft, the Phillies had a lot of decisions to make coming into the year. They traded Addison Russ and then added Connor Brogdon, Mickey Moniak, and Rafael Marchan during the season which dramatically decreased the number of decisions to be made. The nature of the season (or really lack thereof) changes how the Rule 5 draft might play out in unknown ways. For now it is safe to say that the Phillies should protect their obvious players, but they might not need to be super aggressive for guys who got minimal exposure.
Right now the Phillies have 31 spots used on the 40 man roster with David Hale and Vince Velasquez possibly non-tenders, Kyle Garlick and possibly recently claimed Johan Quezada not holding strangleholds on roster spots, and guys like Cole Irvin not 100% secure should a move need to be made.
The Locks
The most common players taken in the draft are immediately useful relievers, middle infielders, and starters who might help in relief. Partially this is because top prospects never really make it to the Rule 5 draft, and especially not if they are near major league ready. For the Phillies this means that Francisco Morales a top 5 prospect in the system is a lock. He has size, youth, pedigree, and while not a finished product his fastball and slider might make him an impactful reliever right now. Damon Jones is probably not a top 10 prospect in the system anymore because his control problems and increasing unlikeliness to stay in the rotation, but out of a bullpen he can 96-97 with a wicked slider, and some team takes that immediately. Simon Muzziotti is a guy the Phillies love and while he has not played above A-ball, he probably would have finished a normal 2020 season in AA or AAA, and he can really hit and is good defender in center. The bigger question for Muzziotti is whether they should protect him, but should he get an honest shot at the CF job at some point in 2021. Rounding out the locks is Nick Maton, a infielder who can play short, but is probably better as a utility infielder and maybe outfielder. He has grown into solid power and can catch up to fastballs. Given the Phillies roster needs, he probably should get a chance at a major league bench job in Spring Training.
Close Consideration
Things get more interesting when we get into guys on the fringe of the decision. The most interesting player is left handed reliever Kyle Dohy. If you catch him on the right moment, he might have 3 plus pitches. His control is a huge problem, and while he is a better prospect than Garrett Cleavinger was a year ago, he wasn’t at the Alternate Site or in Instructs so the last look anyone got was some Spring Training pitches. He is definitely a player where the team needs to read the room and protect him if there is buzz. Similar, but lower upside, is Zach Warren, a tall lefty reliever with a fastball-breaking ball combination that missed bats in 2018 and 2019, but because of the pandemic he has not pitched above hi-A. His stuff has major league potential, but is not overwhelming enough to cover the lack of track record and control issues.
It wouldn’t be the longest shot if picked, but they aren’t protecting them
Just going rapid fire with names that may come up in previews
- Bailey Falter – Falter is a lefty with great extension and the over the top delivery analytical teams love, but he is 88-92 in a rotation spot and was passed over last year.
- David Parkinson – He is a soft tossing lefty starter with some feel for secondary pitches, but probably is just a long man in a rotation with little upside
- Kevin Gowdy – He has pedigree from being a high money pick, and he is now another year removed from Tommy John, but given he wasn’t at the Alternate Site or Instructs you would need a good report from somewhere
- J.D. Hammer – Hammer is a fastball/slider reliever with control problems, which makes him a potential major league contributor, but also at 26, a guy most teams have in AAA.
- Jeff Singer – Singer is similar to Hammer, but from the left side and a little less velocity when on.
- Kyle Young – Young has barely pitched since coming back from Tommy John, and his stuff was very pedestrian before the injury. That said, he is a 7’0″ tall lefty who looks like he releases the ball halfway to home plate and some team could see if they could put him a bullpen immediately.
- Darick Hall – If the DH is here to stay, some team could look at Hall’s bat speed and exit velocity and try to make him a platoon DH/1B, but usually that type of pick has more track record in the high minors.
- Rodolfo Duran – Duran hasn’t played above Clearwater, but he is a catcher with enough defense to stick behind the plate, and enough power to not give a team zero offensively. Catchers are rarely taken, so a team would need to love him, and none did a year ago.
- Luke Williams – Williams is a slightly older version of Nick Maton, who can’t play SS but can play everywhere else. He probably doesn’t have enough bat to be a full time major league bench player, making it unlikely he would be taken in the Rule 5.
- Trevor Kelley/Enyel De Los Santos/Reggie McClain – All three of these guys have major league talent, but all have made it through waivers after being designated for assignment (as has Hammer, but that was over a year ago), so anyone could have already had them without restriction.
- Jhailyn Ortiz – He isn’t major league ready, and the ceiling/risk combination doesn’t make him a good investment, but his tools are better than most here.
- Jonathan Guzman – Guzman can really field it at short and second, but light hitting infielders with no experience above low-A don’t get selected.
Not getting picked, but they are eligible and prospects of some sort
Just for informational purposes, these guys are notable and eligible: Abrahan Gutierrez, Austin Listi, Edgar Made, Jakob Hernandez, Jhordany Mezquita, Josh Stephen, Juan Aparicio, Nicolas Torres, Rodolfo Sanchez, Ben Pelletier, Cornelius Randolph, Henri Lartigue, Joel Cesar, Manuel Silve, Nick Fanti, Julian Garcia, Seth McGary, Luke Leftwich, Arquimedes Gamboa, Daniel Brito, Odubel Herrera