Tuesday at 8pm is the deadline for teams to add players to their 40 man rosters in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Unlike past seasons, the Phillies don’t have a ton of decisions to make, but they do have to make some moves ahead of the deadline.
The Lock:
- RHP Adonis Medina
Medina is a top 3 prospect in the Phillies system and should be in AA next year. He profiles as a mid rotation starter and probably could help a bullpen right now, he is a complete lock.
Read The Room:
- C Deivi Grullon
- SS Arquimedes Gamboa
- 2B Daniel Brito
- RHP Thomas Eshelman
- OF Jose Pujols
None of these players are prospects the Phillies can really afford to lose. Grullon is 3rd on their catching depth chart, Brito and Gamboa are top 15 prospects, Eshelman was a big piece of an early Klentak trade, and Jose Pujols has plenty of upside (even if it comes with some risk). None of them are locks to stay on a big league roster. Neither Brito or Gamboa has hit at anything above low-A. Eshelman bombed last year and does not have the stuff to get past when his command is shaky. Grullon and Pujols still have large periods of time where offspeed pitches are mysteries to them. Pujols is the least likely to be draft by another team because he offers little in the way of 2019 value while lacking the upside and youth to be worth carrying all year. Eshelman is not better than any of the 40 man pitchers they already have and not better than a lot of non-40 man pitchers. Gamboa is interesting because he is a good defender at SS, and Brito can fake SS if a team wants to carry him all year. Grullon is probably a plug and play backup catcher for a team. Ultimately only the Phillies front office knows what other teams feel about these 5 and their likelihood of being drafted. Also with the change in farm director, it is hard to know how the Phillies feel as well. I think Grullon gets protected, and then it is possible Gamboa does as well.
The Relievers:
- RHP Edgar Garcia
- LHP Garrett Cleavinger
- RHP Luis Carrasco
- RHP Seth McGarry
- LHP Tyler Gilbert
- LHP Aaron Brown
- RHP Alexis Rivero
- LHP Tom Windle
Relievers are always the easiest picks in the Rule 5 draft because they have a chance to help immediately, and they aren’t really clogging up too much roster room. Edgar Garcia doesn’t have the most lights out of stuff, but he will get up to 95 and his slider is a very good pitch. He also just turned 22 and had success in AA. Luke Leftwich was unscored on in the AFL and has decent stuff, but he profiles as a middle reliever and the kind that litter systems. He is more likely to be unprotected and have a Austin Davis like 2019. Seth McGarry has less stuff than Leftwich and a whole lot less control. He gets groundballs, making up for his lack of strikeouts, but he probably tops out as an up and down reliever. Garret Cleavinger might not be with the Phillies very long based on his poor results. Tyler Gilbert remade himself as a reliever last year with the addition of a cutter, unfortunately it made him have mostly reverse splits, and that makes his left handedness much less appealing. Tom Windle has remade himself somewhat as a LOOGY, but his control is still a major problem, and he will be 27 on opening day. Alexis Rivero is mostly an upper minors org arm. Aaron Brown is still trying to figure things out as a reliever (after converting at the end of the 2017 season from outfield). He is 26, and while he has arm strength, he had a 23:17 BB:K rate in 24 AA innings. Luis Carrasco moved to the bullpen last year, and had a solid year for Lakewood. He is old for a low minors guy (turned 24 in September), but he has an electric fastball that can reach the mid to upper 90s, and he was a ground ball machine last year. The lack of youth and secondary pitches means he is unlikely to be selected. When it comes to right handed relievers, the Phillies already have Luis Garcia, Victor Arano, Tommy Hunter, Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominugez, Pat Neshek, Edubray Ramos, and Yacksel Rios on the 40 man roster along with starters who might be relievers in Drew Anderson and Enyel De Los Santos. There is not really a lot of room for a ready now right handed reliever.
They Would Be Relievers If Taken:
- RHP Alejandro Requena
- LHP Brandon Leibrandt (DL – Tommy John)
- RHP Jose Taveras
- RHP Ramon Rosso
- RHP Tyler Viza
None of these pitchers have particularly great stuff, but we have seen starters with pedestrian stuff get drafted and stick on rosters. Requena was throwing a bit harder by the end of the 2018 season, but was still only topping out at 95. He lacks the secondary pitch or high minors success to be drafted. Everyone passed on Taveras when he was on waivers, and he has only gotten worse. Rosso has an interesting breaking ball and had a great 2018 season, but his fastball is not dynamic enough to profile as immediate contributor. Leibrandt will be out for the year, ruining his chances to be a Milner like pick. Tyler Viza was great in the rotation in the second half, and had a great AFL, but he has nothing above average, and has struggled as a reliever.
Probably Not:
- OF Jan Hernandez
- IF Jose Gomez
Hernandez had a solid year, as he continues to bounce back, but no one is taking a 23 year old (24 on Opening Day) who hit .263/.326/.431 as a corner outfielder in Reading. Gomez profiles as a utility infielder, and is pretty young, but he also just put up a .523 OPS in Clearwater.
Too Far Away To Pass Judgement:
- IF Jesus Henriquez
- RHP Juan Escorcia
- C Lenin Rodriguez
- RHP Oscar Marcelino
- RHP Robinson Martinez
- RHP Victor Sobil
- RHP Gustavo Armas
- OF Jesus Alastre
None of these players have the upside to get past how far away they are. Martinez and Marcelino have arm strength, but not enough to be on radars.
Org Guys:
- C Austin Bossart
- 1B Edwin Rodriguez
- IF Jose Antequera
- 1B Kyle Martin
- C Nerluis Martinez
- RHP Randy Alcantara
- 3B Damek Tomscha
- 2B Drew Stankiewicz
- SS Emmanuel Marrero
- OF Grenny Cumana
- C Gregori Rivero
- RHP Luis Cedeno
- SS Malquin Canelo
- RHP Ismael Cabrera
Austin Bossart might be a backup catcher one day, but no one is going to use a roster spot to have that happen right now.
Prediction:
The Phillies have 5 roster spots available, and for now I think they leave Leftwich and Eshelman exposed and add Adonis Medina, Edgar Garcia, Deivi Grullon, and Arquimedes Gamboa. I just don’t see them overloading on right handed relievers, and Garcia is young enough that he still has some upside while he sits in AAA. Grullon could push Knapp as the backup if they don’t sign a veteran. Gamboa probably doesn’t get taken in the draft, but I think he has enough name recognition that they don’t risk it. Whether they protect Eshelman or not will tell us a lot about how they view him.