The Phillies are at the time of writing this 2-4 (though winning vs the Yankees), with some major bullpen problems. The Phillies cannot afford bullpen problems, they also cannot afford a bullpen. The Phillies are theoretically built to compete in the short and long term. A lot of that rotates around Aaron Nola and Bryce Harper being the core. It is also easy to admit that the current COVID outbreak means that 2020 is weird as fuck, but it also means with expanded playoffs success is attainable.
The Phillies do not have a good farm system. It is better than it gets credit for, but it isn’t great beyond Spencer Howard and Alec Bohm. What it has is high minors pitching depth. Yet to open the year, the only Top 50 prospect on the roster is Cole Irvin, though if Ramon Rosso was throwing 96-97 to end last year he would have made it. The Phillies are also facing down an offseason with a huge Rule 5 draft crunch. In other words, they have high minors players, and those players need to go on the 40 man roster.
In the face of that, the Phillies added only Rosso to the roster. The upside here is that the Phillies can keep all of those prospects in AAA* as future depth, should things go really horribly. This is a great sentiment, especially given the injuries ripping through baseball, except this is the bullpen the Phillies are running out.
- Hector Neris – he is good, not an elite closer, but he is good
- Adam Morgan, Jose Alvarez – Should not be setup guys, but they aren’t terrible
- Tommy Hunter – Signed to a sub $1M contract and should be like the 6th best guy in the bullpen
- Cole Irvin – Showed promise and velocity in the bullpen last year, but you need someone to go innings
- Ramon Rosso – Rosso jumped to 96-97 T98, real breakout potential, but extremely raw
- Nick Pivetta – In theory it should work, but it isn’t
- Austin Davis – Former Day 3 pick has size, velocity, and a 5.56 ERA in the majors in 56+ innings
- Reggie McClain – Waiver claim from the Mariners
- Deolis Guerra – Out of options waiver claim from the Brewers
- Trevor Kelly – Sub 90mph submariner waiver claim from the Red Sox who then was DFA’d and unclaimed
It isn’t a murderers row, it is actually bad. Rosso and Pivetta are the only guys who really are going to catch lightning in a bottle. The rest of these pitchers are placeholders. The reason to keep them is that you have to DFA them to replace them (due to 40 man roster jam) and you get to keep them and the AAA player if you don’t. However, this just kicks the can down the road, because those guys aren’t getting major league experience and some of them will need to play for the Phillies this year and into the future. Right now the following players are Rule 5 eligible and probably should be protected or considered heavily; Addison Russ, Connor Brogdon, Connor Seabold, Francisco Morales, Kyle Dohy, Mickey Moniak, Nick Maton, Simon Muzziotti, Spencer Howard, Zach Warren, and Rafael Marchan. That is 11 players, that is a lot. Many of those pitchers could help the Phillies now.
Right now the Phillies need to have some upside, and they need clarity. The season is only 60 games long, they cannot sit and churn through the roster for 2 months to find effective relievers. The Phillies under Matt Klentak have been extremely conservative with their roster moves, and that has caused them to hold to players too long, and settle for waiver claims and cheap FA signings over using young players and using option years. It is still wage theft, but it makes some sense with top prospects, but the Phillies upper minor group of Connor Brogdon, Addison Russ, and Damon Jones are not young, nor do they profile to be the caliber of player where getting a year of control really matters. What does matter to the Phillies right now is winning games, and running out bad relievers because they don’t force a decision is detrimental to winning.
The Phillies need to find a bullpen this year, and because of pandemic times they need to start shoveling shit at the wall at an alarming rate. Right now the Phillies are still treating the season like it is normal.
*Except they aren’t all there. Currently Zach Warren, Kyle Dohy, and Francisco Morales are all absent from the extra roster.
I would assume one of Kelly/Guerra are optioned/DFA’ed (likely Kelly who has options) when Howard comes up to start on Sunday. Hopefully they give Rosso another chance, they kind of banished him after his rough opening day appearance.
After that, what would you do? I’d hope they a) keep Howard in the rotation and move VV to the bullpen, b) give Rosso reps with a non-pressure situation or two as they arise, c) DFA/option the other of Guerra/Kelly still hanging around and call up whichever guy they feel best about in AAA* right now (e.g., Russ, Brogdon, Medina, Llovera). My worst nightmare is them moving Howard to the bullpen after Sunday rather than VV. Howard is going to be better than VV in either role.