Phillies 2021 Midseason Prospect Ranking

When writing the preseason list there was a bunch of information missing on a lot of players in the system. We now have a bunch of new information, and after a really rough May for a lot people who didn’t play baseball for a year, things are mostly returning to normal. We also have a “full” draft of new talent interjected into the system. I broke all of the players into tiers during the preseason and I really like that format, but ultimately with the trade deadline I am going to a supplement to the ranking that has tiers, 25 and under, and trade thoughts. I ran out of steam writing up players not in the 50, so if there is someone missing, just leave something in the comments and I will add information. I included all players regardless of level that had not graduated.

  1. Mick Abel, RHP, Age: 19
    Abel has been 93-96 touching 97-99 with big spin on his fastball. His slider and changeup have flashed plus, and he still uses his curveball as well. Abel’s control has come and gone over the course of the season, often missing up with his pitches. The Phillies have been very conservative with Abel’s pitch and innings count, and his starts have often been focused in their pitch usage (like throwing almost all fastballs or sliders in fastball counts). Abel still has a lot of growth ahead, but he is certainly trending as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
  2. Andrew Painter, RHP, Age: 18
    There are going to be a lot of parallels between Painter and Abel given they were picked in back to back years. Painter is bigger, and given he didn’t lose a year to COVID shutdowns, appears more polished. He lacks some of the high end explosiveness that Abel has right now. However, Painter still has a plus fastball and a large collection of secondary pitches. He has uncommon body and pitch control for his size.
  3. Johan Rojas, OF, Age: 20
    In many ways the report on Rojas has not changed since the start of the season. He has an undisciplined approach at the plate, that thanks to plus plus bat speed generates more poor contact than it does swing and miss. He can hit the ball very hard, but does not do it consistently. He is a plus plus runner with a plus arm, making him a very good defensive center fielder. There are a lot of approach and consistency issues that need to be cleaned up, and while young he isn’t a teenager anymore. His upside remains very high, especially since he will be a plus defender in center, the risk hasn’t changed much.
  4. Francisco Morales, RHP, Age: 21
    Morales has had a down and then up and then down season in the jump to AA. Morales has continued to struggle with control, particularly with his fastball. His fastball still sits in the mid 90s and misses bats when he throws it in the zone. His slider has a little less variability than in previous seasons (he used to throw at least 3 distinct versions), settling in as a two plane bat misser that profiles as a plus plus pitch. He is throwing a changeup more, and will show some decent ones, but it is still very inconsistent. Morales is too young and inexperienced to move him to the bullpen yet, but the ceiling continues to be a mid rotation starter with a fall back to high leverage reliever.
  5. Bryson Stott, SS, Age: 23
    The reports on Stott continue to be much the same, he probably does not have a plus tool, but nothing is below average. At the plate his swing is a bit stiff and has a decent amount of swing and miss, but he has a good approach which includes using all fields, and enough power to get near 20 home runs a year. In the field, he can play shortstop, but his range is more ok than good and his throwing actions continue to not be clean. Altogether he profiles more as average defensively at shortstop and it is a position where plus is more the expectation. He profiles as an everyday regular somewhere like second base rather than an impact player.
  6. Ethan Wilson, OF, Age: 21
    Wilson was one of the best hitters in college baseball this year, showing abnormally good contact abilities at the cost of the power he showed his freshman year. Wilson’s future is probably in between the two, which should mean plenty of bat for left field. In the field he isn’t just playing left field as a holding place for a future at first base, he is a pretty good fielder with not enough arm for right and just a touch too little speed for center.
  7. Yhoswar Garcia, OF, Age: 19
    Garcia is a little less of a mystery than he was entering the season as he got some run in Clearwater before a ball fouled off his leg sent him to the IL. He is at minimum a plus plus runner who will put up 80 times home to first. He still lacks present strength and had more swing and miss than ideal. He is a high energy player who also profiles as a plus defender in the outfielder. It is going to be some time, but there is the foundation of an impact player.
  8. Luis Garcia, SS, Age: 20
    Luis Garcia’s return to low-A has gone much better than his first time around. He is hitting the ball harder this year, already setting career highs in home runs and extra base hits. While he has gotten stronger, he does not make consistent contact with a large number of pop-ups. While the batted ball profile still has some problems, Garcia’s plate discipline has not. On the season he has a 14.8% BB% to only a 22.7% K%, which drives his .351 OBP despite the .227 batting average. Not only are the season numbers good, but they have improved each month going 13.5%/27.0%, 15.4%/22.1%, and 15.7%/18.0%. In the field, Garcia has played short and second due to roster needs, but he still profiles as a good defensive shortstop. He probably isn’t a star, but he could be a solid regular for a playoff team.
  9. Erik Miller, LHP, Age: 23
    Coming out of Stanford, Miller flashed plus stuff, but spent a lot of time with minus stuff and/or minus control. In his pro debut in 2019 he showed solid control, but average stuff. At Instructs, Miller’s velocity returned while maintaining the control gains. An injury cost him the first few months of the 2021 season and he is just starting to ramp up on rehab outings now. At his best, Miller is 93-97 with a plus slider and a solid changeup. If he can keep his gains he profiles as a mid rotation starter, and if he stumbles his fastball-slider combination is interesting out of the bullpen.
  10. Bailey Falter, LHP, Age: 24
    The big question entering the year was whether Falter would hold his velocity gains from the missed season, and the answer has been a resounding yes. He has sat in the low 90s with his fastball, which when coupled with some of the best extension in the majors has made him difficult on opposing batters. His secondary stuff is more ok than dominant which probably puts him in more of a back of the rotation role. He has shown plus control in the majors and minors, so any further gains could see his upside jump again. Right now he is working in the bullpen, but the Phillies should move him back to the rotation after the season.
  11. Rafael Marchan, C, Age: 22
    It is easy to forget that while Marchan has struggled in AAA this year, he is only 22 years old and has next to no upper minors experience. His bat is not major league ready, but his glove is almost there. He has the upside of a low end everyday catcher, but is probably a high end #2 catcher. He is fairly safe as a prospect, but also fairly low impact.
  12. Mickey Moniak, OF, Age: 23
    Moniak has shown that his power gains are real, hitting some monster home runs in Lehigh Valley. That said, his approach at the plate leaves a lot to be desired as he puts himself into bad counts with an aggressive approach at the plate. He flashes everyday potential, but he continues to look like a platoon starter or high end bench outfielder.
  13. Logan O’Hoppe, C, Age: 21
    O’Hoppe took advantage of being in the right place at the right time to end up at the alt site last year. He has the defensive tools to stick behind the plate, and intangibles the Phillies constantly rave about. At the plate his swing is a little stiff, and he has had a lot of swing and miss at times. He has solid power as well. If the swing can hold up to plus stuff in the upper minors and majors, then he can profile as an everyday backstop, but there are enough pieces here for a major league backup.
  14. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF, Age: 22
    It is hard to believe Ortiz is only 22, but he just keeps getting incrementally better. He is a good fielder, and has not been an embarrassment in center field, even if it is not a place he should be long term. After a rough and rusty first month, Ortiz has decreased his strikeout rate each month and consequently started to tap into his power more and more. His power is immense and he has just obliterated the baseball all July. There is still a lot of concern about his size and the swing and miss, but his power is special and this year is proving that if he can consistently make contact he can be special.
  15. Simon Muzziotti, OF, Age: 22
    Muzziotti has spent all season stuck in Venezuela on a visa issue. He is a plus glove, plus hit, plus arm, plus speed center fielder with below average power. He was a near major league ready contributor, but the missed time could change things.
  16. Micah Ottenbreit, RHP, Age: 18
    Ottenbreit was the Phillies 4th round pick in 2021. He is a projectable HS RHP already up to 94 with feel for offspeed pitches and control. It is hard to put a final projection on him, but he is somebody he could make some real jumps as he fills out.
  17. Dominic Pipkin, RHP, Age: 21
    Pipkin has been consistently in the mid 90s with his fastball, touching up to 98. His changeup and breaking ball have taken a step forward, as well as his control and consistency. His second trip to the Shore, albeit at a higher level now, has led to a sharp decrease in walks and a sharp uptick in missed bats. He looks more like a starting pitcher, though the fastball does give him a bullpen fallback.
  18. Casey Martin, SS, Age: 22
    Martin’s profile is going to come down to his hit tool. There is a lot of swing and miss in his game thanks to an overly aggressive approach at the plate. He has some power, but it has manifested more as doubles than home runs due to some of the hit tool problems. He is not the best shortstop, but he also has not been a disaster there either. He has already played some second base, and it is likely he adds more positions with time. If he can hit enough he could be one of the super utility players that actually plays everyday, if he only hits a little he is a super utility player who barely plays, and if the hit tool continues the way it has been at Jersey Shore, he doesn’t make it past Reading.
  19. Matt Vierling, OF, Age: 24
    Vierling’s only extended pro time involved a year in Clearwater where he clearly wore down. Vierling has come back from the time off by hitting for power, with a good on base rate. He can play all three outfield positions and is playing some 1B and 3B to add versatility as well. There might be enough things here to make Vierling an everyday outfielder, but it is more likely he is a bench player where his added positional flexibility makes him very interesting.
  20. Daniel Brito, 2B, Age: 23
    It wasn’t that long ago that Brito was a very well regarded prospect in the Phillies system, but lack of results dropped him off of rankings entirely. He has put on a bunch of strength and is driving the ball much more consistently. He has a fairly simple left handed swing, with average power to the pull side and a good overall feel for contact. He is a good defender at second base, and he has gotten some reps at third and short, but his arm strength is a little light to make those permanent options. His ceiling is everyday regular, but the offensive bar is high at second base, and without a lot of positional fallback, he remains fairly risky despite the results in 2021.
  21. Cristopher Sanchez, LHP, Age: 24
    The Phillies spent most of the year developing Sanchez as a starting pitcher, mostly due to his lack of innings pitched. His biggest problem, and probably why he ends up in a bullpen is his inconsistency from start to start and sometimes batter to batter. Sanchez’s fastball sits in the low 90s and he has a slider and changeup which both flash good, but are not consistent weapons. Sanchez will need to improve his control in either role, but for now he likely is a multi inning reliever.
  22. Kendall Simmons, SS, Age: 21
    Simmons continues to hit the ball harder than almost any player in the system. His plate discipline and pitch recognition continues to be a struggle and he has not always tapped into his power. Defensively, he isn’t a shortstop, but with continued improvement he should still stick at second or third, and there is a chance he is a multi positional player going forward. The biggest problem for Simmons this year has been staying healthy as he got off to a late start due to an injury before recently going back on the IL.
  23. Jamari Baylor, SS, Age: 20
    With a crowded Clearwater infield, Baylor started with the FCL Phillies. His strikeout rate started alarmingly high and over the last few games has come down to just high. He hits the ball often and hard, and his walk numbers are not bad. He is almost certainly moving off of shortstop to at least second base, though some have speculated at center field as a fit.
  24. Jordan Viars, OF, Age: 18
    The Phillies third round pick in the 2021 draft is a massive Texas teenager with big power. He is young for the class and has had success against some college players.
  25. Andrick Nava, C, Age: 19
    Nava is a bat first, catcher who is more hit tool and plate discipline than power. He should be able to stick at catcher, but he may not be an asset there defensively. He has missed almost the entire season to injury.
  26. Rickardo Perez, C, Age: 17
    Perez was the highest regarded of the Phillies January international signees. He is a lefty hitting catcher with some room to grow into power. He should stick at catcher long term. He started his career in the DSL.
  27. Yemal Flores, OF, Age: 17
    The Phillies other big money international signing alongside Perez. Flores is a prototype right fielder with big power and plus arm strength. Like many young hitters Flores has some hit tool and pitch recognition questions.
  28. Christian McGowan, RHP, Age: 21
    The Phillies took McGowan in the 7th round and gave him an overslot bonus to get him to sign. He has good size, a 3 pitch mix, and a fastball that has gotten up to 99, but sits more plus. He has the stuff to start, but a fall back as a high leverage reliever.
  29. Eduar Segovia, RHP, Age: 20
    Segovia is a short Venezuelan righty who can get his fastball up to 97, but has sat more in the 93-95 range. His slider is a plus pitch that is his main bat missing pitch. His changeup is a clear third pitch, and he has barely used it this season. His control has been a problem at times. The control issues and lack of a good third pitch give Segovia a lot of reliever risk.
  30. Cristian Hernandez, RHP, Age: 20
    Hernandez was part of a pitching heavy 2017 international class behind Luis Garcia and Abrahan Gutierrez. He missed 2019 due to injury before the 2020 shut down. He is 6’3” 20 year old righty who is up to 96 with his fastball, normally sitting more in the 92-94 range (he throws a 4 seamer and a two seamer). He backs that up with a curveball and changeup. Most of his success has come off of his fastball with a very high whiff percent. After throwing a bunch of strikes to open the year, his control has started to slip a bit, but he still has 22 walks to 74 strikeouts in 56.2 innings.
  31. Abrahan Gutierrez, C, Age: 21
    Gutierrez spent much of 2019 stuck behind Rafael Marchan and Juan Aparicio, and then got jumped by Logan O’Hoppe during 2020. He has gotten in much better shape since then and it is showing on both sides of his game. He is a solid defender behind the plate, profiling to be average more than plus. He is driving the ball better this year having already set a career high in home runs and in XBHs in just 47 games. What stands out is the feel for contact and the zone with just 13.4% K% and 36 walks to the 28 strikeouts. Right now he profiles more as a backup catcher, but he has taken large strides forward this season.
  32. Gunner Mayer, RHP, Age: 20
    Mayer had just moved to the mound when the Phillies took him in the 5th round of the 2019 draft. He is still a work in progress and an injury slowed him up some. His fastball sits in the low 90s and will touch up to 96. He throws a changeup and curveball with his changeup being his best weapon. He is still a skinny 6’6” and is very much still a project in terms of feel for pitching and physical projection.
  33. Jordi Martinez, LHP, Age: 21
    Martinez had a brief appearance in the GCL in 2019, but has mostly been off the radar. His fastball is up to 96 this season, averaging more around 93. He has a changeup and a slider, with his slider profiling as a plus bat missing pitch. He velocity was down a bit over his last few starts before he ended up on the IL for an undisclosed injury.
  34. Jose Pena Jr., RHP, Age: 18
    HS right handed pitcher reportedly up to 99 while sitting quite a bit lower. His curveball is apparently the better of his offspeed pitches, but he does throw a changeup.
  35. Starlyn Castillo, RHP, Age: 19
    The Phillies top international signing in 2018 only pitched in 6 games before an arm injury ended his season. His fastball was up to 96 and averaged a tick over 93. His breaking ball (it has been called a slider previously, but Statcast labeled it a curveball) has high spin and is a plus bat misser. His changeup still needed work.
  36. Adonis Medina, RHP, Age: 24
    Medina’s development has stagnated over the last few years and is now an ok control RHP with an average fastball that will flash an above average to plus slider and changeup. He no longer profiles as a mid rotation starter and now looks like an up and down depth starter. He is out of options after this season and currently injured, so a move to the bullpen or out of the org is not unlikely.
  37. Griff McGarry, RHP, Age: 22
    McGarry was the Phillies 5th round pick this year. He has plus stuff across the board and terrible control until his last few starts of the college season. Unless the good control is here to stay he probably profiles more as a reliever.
  38. Jadiel Sanchez, OF, Age: 20
    Sanchez was an overslot signing by the Phillies in the 12th round of the 2019 draft. He is a switch hitting outfielder with a handsy whippy swing from the left side (he only has 11 PAs against LHPs all season). He has hit the ball hard and his approach has not been terrible. He is one to watch as we get a larger sample size.
  39. Baron Radcliff, OF, Age: 22
    Radcliff is having one of the weirder years in the Phillies system. He has a great eye and approach at the plate, and is feasting on the combination of automatic strike zone and inexperienced pitchers. He has a ton of swing and miss, but he hits the ball extremely hard when he makes contact.
  40. Ethan Lindow, LHP, Age: 22
    The Phillies pushed Lindow to Reading where he stumbled in 6 games before sending him back to Jersey Shore. His velocity continues to be below average and he has struggled to miss bats. He is still young enough to have his velocity tick up some.
  41. Marcus Lee Sang, OF, Age: 20
    The Phillies 11th round pick in 2019 as an overslot HS outfielder. Lee Sang is athletic, but a bit raw. His approach is still overly aggressive and while there is loft and power in his swing, it looks a bit stiff.
  42. Billy Sullivan, RHP, Age: 22
    Sullivan has a high 90s fastball and a good slider. His control can be a bit loose and he has a max effort delivery, but he profiles as a major league reliever with the potential at high leverage.
  43. Kevin Gowdy, RHP, Age: 23
    After his career was derailed by injuries, Gowdy is back on the mound and pitching reasonably well. His fastball has mostly sat 94-95, touching 96. He has a slider and a new split change. His control is much improved from 2019, but he still has some spots of rougher command. There is some back end starter ceiling here because of the velocity and pitch mix, but the lack of a dominant pitch is a limiter. Given the velocity jump, there might be a bullpen role for him if he can add a little more power in short stints.
  44. Gavin Tonkel, OF, Age: 18
    The Phillies 9th round pick has plus plus speed and a projectable body.
  45. Logan Cerny, OF, Age: 21
    A college junior out of Troy, Cerny has plus power, plus plus speed, and a poor hit tool. Good chance he doesn’t make it, but he is a center fielder so if he can hit just a little bit there is a bench outfielder outcome here, small chance everything comes together.
  46. Juan Aparicio, C, Age: 21
    Aparicio is an offensive catcher. He hits the ball hard, draws walks, and doesn’t strike out at a high rate. Like many prospects, he started out rusty and has improved with time. Aparicio is not the best defensive catcher, and will need to at least stick behind the plate as his bat will not play at first base.
  47. Rodolfo Duran, C, Age: 23
    Duran is a short, stocky catcher with good defensive abilities. He has pluss pull power, but he can sell out for it and swing and miss a ton. Profiles as a backup catcher.
  48. Nicolas Torres, 2B, Age: 21
    Torres is a second baseman by listed position, but has played everything but catcher for the Threshers. He has been hitting the ball harder as the season has gone on, and after a 2 walk to 21 strikeout in May, he has 28 walks to 35 strikeouts in June and July. He doesn’t profile as an every day player, but there is an intriguing Luke Williams type profile here.
  49. Maikel Garrido, LHP, Age: 21
    A 6’4” 21 year old LHP up to 97 would be intriguing regardless. That fastball averaging over 2500 RPM and having a high spin monster slider to pair with it only increases the interest. Garrido’s control has been poor at every level and his stuff is surprisingly hittable. His lack of changeup to go along with the poor control means he is probably a reliever, but the stuff is interesting enough to keep him on the radar.
  50. Cornelius Randolph, OF, Age: 24
    Randolph got himself into much better shape during the year off. He now can at least play both outfield corners and is trying to make center field work. He revamped his swing and is showing much more power, without sacrificing his hit tool like he has in the past. He only had one series where he was truly on fire, and only played 21 games before an arm injury shut him down. The changes in Randolph were so radical he needs to be treated as a brand new player, and in the end 21 games is not enough to fully buy into anything, and is more of a tease leaving us wanting more.

Other prospects of note or notoriety in no particular order. If you want anyone added, please respond on Twitter or in the comments.

  • LHP Rafael Marcano – High spin fastball in the low 90s and a 3 pitch starter’s mix
  • 2B Alexeis Azuaje – Azuaje is an Athletic infielder with some power and plus speed.
  • RHP Ben Brown – Tall RHP has a chance to start, but is still dealing with coming back from Tommy John surgery.
  • RHP Victor Vargas – Young sinker balling starter in the low 90s. Has pitch mix to be a starter.
  • RHP Noah Skirrow – 2020 NDFA with a back end starter arsenal who missed a bunch of time with an injury.
  • SS Jonathan Guzman – Plus glove shortstop who looks like he will never hit enough
  • LHP Jake McKenna – Tall, lanky HS lefty who touched mid 90s in offseason workouts.
  • RHP James McArthur – Tall RHP has a darling of Fall Instructs with a power jump and two good breaking balls. The stuff has not worked in AA, and it feels like a move to the bullpen is incoming.
  • RHP J.D. Hammer – Plus fastball, plus slider. The formula for the modern reliever.
  • LHP Erubiel Armenta – Lanky lefty with a funky delivery and low 90s fastball. His changeup has been a real weapon in carving up batters at two levels, but his control has been poor.
  • RHP Enyel De Los Santos – Plus fastball, two offspeed pitches, and some inconsistency in command. De Los Santos was in the high 90s earlier this season, but has settle back into the mid 90s.
  • C Micah Yonamine – Tall HS catcher with impressive plate discipline so far this season.
  • RHP Rodolfo Sanchez – Short RHP with a fastball that can touch 96, but sits 92-04. Has a changeup and a slider with average control. Likely profiles more as a reliever.
  • 1B Rixon Wingrove – Big Australian first baseman with plus power.
  • 1B Darick Hall – Big Arizona first baseman with huge exit velocities who struggled until July in AAA
  • IF/OF Arquimedes Gamboa – Gamboa is hitting for more power, walking a bit more, striking out a bit less, and playing a bunch of different positions for flexibility. Had a rough May and June and is on fire in July. Has the Reading home/road splits that give some concern. There is still some bench bat outcomes.
  • 1B/3B D.J. Stewart – Thick corner infielder with decent raw power. Likely a 1B long term and doesn’t have a good enough hit tool or approach to not be a “prove it at each level” type of prospect.
  • LHP Kyle Dohy – Velocity is down from his peak, has been much better since they sent him down to the complex and then to Reading. Control is still a problem and it looks more like an up and down RP ceiling.
  • LHP Josh Hendrickson – Soft tossing (87-90) lefty starter with good command and an idea of what he is doing.