You cannot really judge a draft until after the signing deadline, or at very least until after Day 3. Here between Day 2 and Day 3 we get a quick moment to pause before looking ahead at how the draft could play out. Given that, this will be more news and notes than real analysis on the first ten rounds.
Just a quick Day 1 recap, I thought the Phillies took the best player available at both picks. I like Randolph more and more as I learn about him, the kid just flat out hits and he is young for the class. Kingery is another guy who can just hit and if he can stick at second base (which most people think he can), he could move quick enough to almost catch the wave of prospects currently in Reading.
On to Day 2:
- The Lucas Williams pick still confuses me, but the Phillies have seen a ton of him and we don’t know what is bonus will be. The Phillies are going to run him out at third base where the profile is a bit strange, with little power and plus or better speed, but he is extremely projectable.
- Johnny Almaraz loves Bailey Falter, saw him at 87-91 recently. Other scouts like the changeup and he already throws his changeup for strikes. His fastball has run and sink and he has some command of it. Right now it is not a major league arsenal, but if he puts on muscle and is 91-93 in a year that is steal.
- The Martin pick comes down to his bonus, he won’t cost nothing but I don’t think he should cost full slot. Given his skills they could skip him straight to full season ball where he would be only about half a season behind where he would be if he was a drafted.
- Pickett has become the lynchpin to the draft. The HS outfielder has giant power and is quite raw, but has shown the ability to work pitchers and use the full field. It will take a while for him because he is so unfinished, but he was a borderline first round pick coming into the year.
- The Phillies often reached according to the public rankings, but they also did not draft any seniors who will take $5000 and disappear quietly. Both Martin and Tobias should be under slot but both have the skills to have outside shots at major league rolls.
- Even with all of the uncertainty, Almaraz says they are very confident they will sign everyone they drafted.
Looking ahead at Day 3, the Phillies will be drafting a bunch of college seniors and some juniors to fill out both the GCL Phillies and the Williamsport Crosscutters. The ceiling for most players taken today will be utility players or middle relievers. The bonuses for the Phillies Top 10 picks are enough in the air that we don’t know how much money they really have. However, I still expect them to take 10+ HS players and look to add a projectable pitcher or two to their class along with possibly a hitter or two.
Here are some other tweets from yesterday evening: