Day 2 kicks off at 1pm ET with the 3rd round and it should fly by compared to the first two rounds. The Phillies still have a lot of money to spend so there shouldn’t be any cost cutting moves for a while.
Day 1 Thoughts:
If you think of the draft as a portfolio of upside and risk, the Phillies started off with a very solid base. Moniak and Gowdy both have a lot of safety as advanced high school players with solid base tools (hit and defense in Moniak’s case and command in Gowdy’s case). I don’t know if Moniak is the top player in the draft, but I think there is a real argument that he is and the Phillies managed to get a special player and save money for later. In Gowdy the Phillies got the overslot pitcher of Moniak. Gowdy does not have the giant arm strength that some of the other prep arms have, but he has enough and some remaining projection. He has the feel for pitching and command to actualize his ability and he could be very good. It is not quite what you would have written up for the first two picks coming into the season, but it is not a bad return either.
Day 2 Preview:
Let’s start with the money situation. The Phillies probably saved $3.5-$4M with the Moniak pick, and while Gowdy will cost a good chunk of money, the Phillies almost certainly have more than $1M in overage to spend on later picks. There are not a huge amount of players falling, but they almost certainly have the money to sign any that do fall. They have the first pick tomorrow and I would expect them to take another prep player that has fallen (we will get to that in a second). After that 3rd round pick I would expect them to take best player available through the rest of the day with a mix of high school and college.
If I am the Phillies I have been trying to find the signing numbers on these players for their next pick.
- Jared Horn – Athletic and raw California HS RHP. Horn has been up to the mid 90s and will flash good secondary pitches, but it is just flashes right now. He has a commitment to Cal.
- Drew Mendoza – A HS SS who will move to 3B at the next level (or maybe RF), Mendoza fell due to a strong FSU commitment. If you are optimistic you can see a good hit tool and plus power, others see more inconsistency.
- Jesus Luzardo – HS LHP who had Tommy John surgery this March. Before the injury Luzardo was showing a plus fastball up to 97. He shows some feel for 3 secondary pitches, with some disagreement on which is the best. If he returns to pre-injury form he is a mid first round talent, but that bet might cost a lot to take.
- Kyle Funkhouser – 2015 first round pick has been inconsistent in his return to Louisville before picking up down the stretch. There is good stuff here, but who knows what he will be.
- Adam Laskey – Local LHP (Haddon Heights) with a low 90s fastball and a very good changeup. He has an inconsistent slider, but if that can be cleaned up and he can grow into a little more velocity he could be a mid rotation starter. He has a Duke commitment so he won’t be cheap.
There are more beyond those players as there a decent amount of projectable HS arms still on the board who won’t come cheaply.