Are We Overrating How Bad the Phillies System Is?

I have heard a lot lately about how bad the Phillies farm system is, and frankly it bugs the crap out of me, so you all get to join me on the exploration process.  Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Fangraphs have put out varying amounts of lists, so we are going to compare them to the Phillies list.  If not lists exist for an org, we will go to the mlb.com lists, but keep in mind they have not been updated.

So lets start with the Phillies system and set our baseline (keeping in mind neither Eflin or Windle is listed but the consensus is that they are Top 10 prospects.

Rank Baseball America Baseball Prospectus Fangraphs
1 J.P. Crawford J.P. Crawford J.P. Crawford
2 Aaron Nola Aaron Nola Maikel Franco
3 Maikel Franco Maikel Franco Aaron Nola
4 Roman Quinn Yoel Mecias Matt Imhof
5 Carlos Tocci Jesse Biddle Jesse Biddle
6 Aaron Brown Deivi Grullon Yoel Mecias
7 Matt Imhof Kelly Dugan Deivi Grullon
8 Jesmuel Valentin Carlos Tocci Roman Quinn
9 Yoel Mecias Elniery Garcia Dylan Cozens
10 Franklyn Kilome Dylan Cozens Kelly Dugan

 

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Now that we have our baseline, lets eliminate some team from our experiment, because their systems are clearly better than the Phillies.  Those teams being the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Twins, Astros, Rangers, Mets, Pirates,Cubs, and Rockies, which puts our peak ranking at #11.  As we move forward, you can play along and put an either up or down next two a system to see where they would rank for you and we will get to that at the end.

Cincinnati Reds:

Keep in mind the Reds acquired Anthony DeSclafani and Jonathan Crawford in trades during the winter meetings.

Rank Baseball Prospectus Fangraphs
1 Robert Stephenson Robert Stephenson
2 Jesse Winker Michael Lorenzen
3 Michael Lorenzen Jesse Winker
4 Yorman Rodriguez Rasiel Iglesias
5 Nick Howard Nick Howards
6 Alex Blandino Alex Blandino
7 Ben Lively Phil Ervin
8 Nick Travieso Nick Travieso
9 Phil Ervin Yorman Rodriguez
10 Gavin LaValley Aristides Aquino

 

St. Louis Cardinals:

Rank Baseball Prospectus
1 Stephen Piscotty
2 Marco Gonzales
3 Alexander Reyes
4 Jack Flaherty
5 Rob Kaminsky
6 Charlie Tilson
7 Tim Cooney
8 Sam Tuivailala
9 Luke Weaver
10 Carson Kelly

 

San Diego Padres:

Rank MLB.com
1 Austin Hedges
2 Matthew Wisler
3 Max Fried
4 Hunter Renfroe
5 Trea Turner
6 Rymer Liriano
7 Casey Kelly
8 Joe Ross
9 Jose Rondon
10 Taylor Lindsey

 

Los Angeles Dodgers:

Rank MLB.com
1 Corey Seager
2 Julio Urias
3 Joc Pederson
4 Grant Holmes
5 Chris Anderson
6 Zach Lee
7 Chris Reed
8 Scott Schebler
9 Alex Verduge
10 Jose De Leon

 

Baltimore Orioles:

Rank Baseball Prospectus Baseball America
1 Dylan Bundy Dylan Bundy
2 Hunter Harvey Hunter Harvey
3 Chance Cisco Christian Walker
4 Christian Walker Chance Cisco
5 Josh Hart Dariel Alvarez
6 Zach Davies Zach Davies
7 Mike Wright Tim Berry
8 Tim Berry Mike Wright
9 Stephen Tarpley Mike Yastrzemski
10 Mike Yastrzemski Jomar Reyes

 

Tampa Bay Rays:

Rank Baseball Prospectus Baseball America
1 Willy Adames Willy Adames
2 Justin O’Connor Alex Colome
3 Alex Colome Justin O’Connor
4 Adrian Rondon Adrian Rondon
5 Brent Honeywell Nate Karns
6 Nate Karns Mickie Mahtook
7 Taylor Guerrieri Ryan Brett
8 Casey Gillaspie Brent Honeywell
9 Justin Williams Blake Snell
10 Blake Snell Casey Gillaspie

 

Detroit Tigers:

Rank Baseball America
1 Devon Travis
2 Steven Moya
3 Buck Farmer
4 Derek Hill
5 Domingo Leyba
6 Kevin Ziomek
7 Robbie Ray
8 Hernan Perez
9 James McCann
10 Tyler Collins

 

Cleveland Indians:

Rank Baseball America
1 Francisco Lindor
2 Bradley Zimmer
3 Clint Frazier
4 Justus Sheffield
5 Mike Papi
6 Tyler Naquin
7 Francisco Mejia
8 Erik Gonzalez
9 Bobby Bradley
10 Cody Anderson

 

Chicago White Sox:

Rank Baseball America Fangraphs
1 Carlos Rodon Carlos Rodon
2 Tim Anderson Tim Anderson
3 Spencer Adams Francellis Montas
4 Micah Johnson Spencer Adams
5 Francellis Montas Tyler Danish
6 Micker Adolfo Trey Michalczewski
7 Tyler Danish Micah Johnson
8 Trey Michalczewski Courtney Hawkins
9 Courtney Hawkins Micker Adolfo
10 Rangelo Ravelo Trayce Thompson

 

Seattle Mariners:

Rank Baseball America
1 Alex Jackson
2 D.J. Peterson
3 Ketel Marte
4 Patrick Kivlehan
5 Austin Wilson
6 Edwin Diaz
7 Gabby Guerrero
8 Luiz Gohara
9 Ryan Yarbrough
10 Carson Smith

 

Los Angeles Angels:

The Angels added LHP Andrew Heaney via trade from the Dodgers

Rank Baseball America
1 Sean Newcomb
2 Ricardo Sanchez
3 Cam Bedrosian
4 Chris Ellis
5 Joe Gatto
6 Victor Alcantara
7 Jairo Diaz
8 Alex Yarbrough
9 Nick Tropeano
10 Kyle McGowin

 

Oakland Athletics:

Rank Baseball America
1 Daniel Robertson
2 Franklin Barreto
3 Matt Olson
4 Matt Chapman
5 Renato Nunez
6 Kendall Graveman
7 Sean Nolin
8 Dillon Overton
9 Raul Alcantara
10 Chad Pinder

 

Atlanta Braves:

Rank Baseball America Baseball Prospectus
1 Jose Peraza Lucas Sims
2 Lucas Sims Jose Peraza
3 Christian Bethancourt Christian Bethancourt
4 Jason Hursh Braxton Davidson
5 Ozhaino Albies Garrett Fulenchek
6 Braxton Davidson Ozhaino Albies
7 Tyrell Jenkins Alec Grosser
8 Johan Camargo Kyle Kubitza
9 Garrett Fulenchek J.R. Graham
10 Kyle Kubitza Mauricio Cabrera

 

Miami Marlins:

The BP list was released before the Winter Meetings, and the BA list was released after the meetings.

Rank Baseball America Baseball Prospectus
1 Tyler Kolek Andrew Heaney
2 J.T. Realmuto Tyler Kolek
3 Justin Nicolino J.T. Realmuto
4 Jose Urena Trevor Williams
5 Avery Romero Jose Urena
6 Domingo German Anthony DeSclafani
7 Isael Soto Avery Romero
8 Trevor Williams Justin Nicolino
9 Brian Anderson Nick Wittgren
10 Jarlin Garcia Michael Mader

 

San Francisco Giants:

Rank MLB.com
1 Kyle Crick
2 Tyler Beede
3 Andrew Susac
4 Adalberto Mejia
5 Keury Mella
6 Ty Blach
7 Clayton Blackburn
8 Chris Stratton
9 Aramis Garcia
10 Steven Okert

 

Milwaukee Brewers:

Rank Baseball Prospectus
1 Orlando Arcia
2 Tyrone Taylor
3 Devin Williams
4 Taylor Williams
5 Monte Harrison
6 Gilbert Lara
7 Jorge Lopez
8 Tyler Wagner
9 Kodi Medeiros
10 Miguel Diaz

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

You can choose to either include or exclude Yasmany Tomas, it is up to you.

Rank Baseball Prospectus Fangraphs
1 Archie Bradley Archie Bradley
2 Braden Shipley Braden Shipley
3 Aaron Blair Aaron Blair
4 Touki Toussaint Brandon Drury
5 Brandon Drury Touki Toussaint
6 Jake Lamb Jake Lamb
7 Jimmie Sherfy Nick Ahmed
8 Sergio Alcantara Andrew Velazquez
9 Marcus Wilson Justin Williams
10 Kaleb Fleck Sergio Alcantara

 

New York Yankees

Rank Baseball Prospectus Baseball America
1 Aaron Judge Luis Severino
2 Luis Severino Aaron Judge
3 Gary Sanchez Jorge Mateo
4 Ian Clarkin Greg Bird
5 Jorge Mateo Gary Sanchez
6 Rob Refsnyder Ian Clarkin
7 Greg Bird Rob Refsnyder
8 Leonardo Molina Jacob Lindgren
9 Jacob Lindgren Luis Torrens
10 Luis Torrens Miguel Andujar

 

Washington Nationals:

Rank Baseball Prospectus
1 Lucas Giolito
2 A.J. Cole
3 Michael Taylor
4 Reynaldo Lopez
5 Erick Fedde
6 Steven Souza
7 Jackson Reetz
8 Jake Johansen
9 Rafael Bautista
10 Wilmer Difo

The End Result:

Go through and add your tallies up, along with our 10 locks from the top and find the number above and below and where the Phillies then fall in the middle.  Let me know where that number is:

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The point of all this isn’t to say the Phillies system is secretly the Cubs, but that there are a lot of really crappy farm systems out there.  If the Phillies are very, very bad, then there are a lot of absolutely horrendous farm systems.  I wrote about this a while ago, but its key to remember that the majority of top prospects are with a handful of teams.  Either we need to adjust our views on the Phillies system or realize the vast majority of systems are just not good.

2 thoughts on “Are We Overrating How Bad the Phillies System Is?”

  1. Wow.
    This is definitely a difficult chore to correctly assess and time-consuming.
    Probably the most difficult I have encountered, primarily not knowing the prospects from many of the clubs after their top 4/5 prospects. And just going on what the pub experts say.

  2. This is a great example of how using a top 100 as a quick shorthand of the strength of a system is a valuable tool. The new statement I am getting a little tired of hearing is well all of these guys from # to # are all the same and just projection. It is stating the obvious that all but the elite prospects are such a gamble, and that is why all it takes is a player like Crawford to completely turn around a system and when players of that magnitude graduate a system can just as easily drop to nothing. But it is that grouping that shows how much the system has grown over the last few years. That grouping has grown from 3-7 to 4-12 to 5-20 and then you are getting into an odds game where the more guys that have the potential to be an MLB regular (1st,2nd, or 3rd doesn’t much matter) the more likely you hit on a couple.

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