2018 Phillies Top 50 Prospects: By The Numbers and Ranking Tiers

The format of going 10 by 10 works from a publishing and writing schedule, but it leaves some nuance out. One of those pieces of nuance is the tiers of prospects that emerge. These tiers I think do a better job of showing similarly valued players.

Tier 1:

  • J.P. Crawford (1)
  • Sixto Sanchez (2)
  • Scott Kingery (3)

All three of these players have a chance to be impact players in the majors. Sanchez might have a bit more upside than the other two, but he is at least a year behind the other two in reaching the majors. All three prospects are top 30 prospects in the game, and I would buy arguments for them in any order depending on what your personal preferences are in terms of upside, risk, and importance of position.

Tier 2A:

  • Jorge Alfaro (4)

Tier 2B:

  • Adonis Medina (5)
  • Jhailyn Ortiz (6)

All three of the players in tier 2 are similar in value for me. The only problem is that Alfaro and Medina/Ortiz are very different prospects in their journey to the majors, so I have the group split in my mind even if they would all rank fairly closely on a national list.

Tier 3:

  • Arquimedes Gamboa (7)
  • Adam Haseley (8)
  • Franklyn Kilome (9)
  • Mickey Moniak (10)
  • Daniel Brito (11)
  • JoJo Romero (12)

For lack of a better term, this is the “fringe top 100” tier. Romero is probably the safest player in this group, but the rest have large warts. You can also argue that everyone in this range has an above average MLB ceiling (above average regular or #3 starter)

Tier 4:

  • Roman Quinn (13)
  • Seranthony Dominguez (14)
  • Enyel De Los Santos (15)
  • Francisco Morales (16)
  • Thomas Eshelman (17)
  • Ranger Suarez (18)

Everyone here is flawed. Quinn, Dominguez, and De Los Santos might all be headed for more marginal roles. Morales is far away and needs control improvements. Eshelman and Suarez have back of the rotation ceilings. Unlike some of the lower tiers, I am confident that at least 5 of these players are major league contributors.

Tier 5:

  • Cornelius Randolph (19)
  • Spencer Howard (20)

On talent both of these players should be in tier 4. They just happen to have a ton of extra risk. Howard’s control was spotty in pro ball and he is not that polished for a college arm. Randolph is a left fielder who needs to hit for power and average, he has shown he can kind of do both, but not at the same time. He is also young, but not projectable.

Tier 6:

Luis Garcia (21), Jonathan Guzman (22), Simon Muzziotti (23), Drew Anderson (24), Kyle Young (25), Cole Irvin (26), Jose Taveras (27), Brayan Gonzalez (28), Connor Seabold (29), Victor Arano (30)

The interesting flier group. You have far away teenagers, and major league average-ish players who are close to the major leagues.

Tier 7:

Kevin Gowdy (31), Jesmuel Valentin (32), McKenzie Mills (33), Bailey Falter (34), Dylan Cozens (35), Jose Gomez (36), Edgar Garcia (37), Eliezer Alvarez (38), Jake Scheiner (39), Andrew Pullin (40), J.D. Hammer (41), Alberto Tirado (42), Ben Pelletier (43), Elniery Garcia (44), Jake Holmes (45), Manuel Silva (46), Jhordany Mezquita (47), Abrahan Gutierrez (48), Dalton Guthrie (49), Alejandro Requena (50), Keudy Bocio, Deivi Grullon, Jacob Waguespack, Austin Davis, Yacksel Rios, David Parkinson, Mauricio Llovera, Victor Vargas, Nick Fanti, Rafael Marchan, Leonel Aponte, Nick Maton, Carlos Betancourt, Darick Hall, Alfonso Puello, Edgar Cabral, Cole Stobbe, Felix Paulino, Luis Carrasco, Ramon Rosso, Rodolfo Duran, Zach Coppola, Ethan Lindow, Malvin Matos, Will Stewart, Jeff Singer, Grant Dyer

There are probably some players missing here, but this is into the “players that are interesting” portion of the system. I obviously like the players I ranked better than the others, but pitchers like Austin Davis, Jacob Waguespack, Mauricio Llovera, and Yacksel Rios all have interesting stuff in a bullpen role. The Phillies signed Victor Vargas, Alfonso Puello, and Carlos Betancourt for decent bonuses and brought them stateside this fall, but the reports on the them and a player like Leonel Aponte, who put up great numbers in the DSL, are sparse and out of date.

Top 50 By the Numbers:

Now for the fun part where I just put the Top 50 into a pivot table to see on a large scale how some of these things breakdown.

By Position:

  • RHP – 17
  • LHP – 9
  • OF – 9
  • SS – 7
  • 2B – 5
  • C – 2
  • 3B – 1

By Age:

  • 17 – 1
  • 18 – 4
  • 19 – 7
  • 20 – 7
  • 21 – 7
  • 22 – 8
  • 23 – 11
  • 24 – 5

Country of Origin:

  • United States – 22
  • Dominican Republic – 14
  • Venezuela – 10
  • Colombia – 1
  • Mexico – 1
  • Puerto Rico – 1
  • Canada – 1

Acquisition Method:

  • Draft – 22
  • International FA – 18
  • Trade – 10

Biggest Risers:

  • Ranger Suarez (UR->18)
  • Simon Muzziotti (UR->23)
  • Francisco Morales (38->16)
  • Jose Taveras (48->27)
  • Kyle Young (43->25)
  • Jonathan Guzman (43->22)

Biggest Fallers:

Not including those falling off the list

  • Dylan Cozens (13->35)
  • Elniery Garcia (22->44)
  • Kevin Gowdy (10->31)
  • Alberto Tirado (23->42)

Author: Matt Winkelman

Matt Winkelman
Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has appeared on Phuture Phillies, The Good Phight, and TheDynastyGuru.

7 comments

  1. Deron

    Matt
    How could you have a top FIFTY and not have a slot for Darick Hall?? The kid has been under estimated and yet continues to lead every team he has been on since Dallas Baptist. How can a guy set new benchmarks for Homers and RBI, win a league MVP and still not crack your 50?

    • Matt Winkelman

      Because he had a horrible walk rate for a college 1B in Low-A and every scout and evaluator I talked to thought he couldn’t hit lefties or offspeed pitches. I did not get a single positive report about anything but his raw power all year.

      • Deron

        His avg last year was only 7 points lower against lefties. Without a lot in the Lakewood lineup pitchers just pitched around him. With runners on base pitchers had to pitch to him and his average and OBP went up and his Ks dropped. Also he isn’t afraid to take 15-20 HBPs a season.

      • Deron

        Matt
        One last comment. Your boy Jay Floyd from Phoulballz had Hall at #23. Prospects1500 brought him in at #17.
        While he does need to improve his plate discipline (as do many others in your rankings, who had lower avgs. and power #’s) the dicrepency in your rankings is glaring to the point of being laughable. I think you need to broaden your group of scouts and evaluators!

  2. Eddie

    Deron, you’re clueless.

  3. Philly4life

    You wrote a nice report on Harold Arauz, but he is not included. Please let us know your thought on why he doesn’t make the top 50 cut.

    • Matt Winkelman

      That was Jeff’s report. Personally I don’t have any 2017 reports on him throwing over 90. None of his secondary stuff is amazing. He mixes his pitches well and throws strike. He is an org reliever to me and was never in prospect list consideration.

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