Rodolfo Duran, C
5’9″, 181 lb
Born 2/19/98 (Age 20) in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Bats/Throws: R/R
Signed $75,000 bonus as an international amateur in 2014
Team Played For: Lakewood (South Atlantic League/Low A)
Games Seen: 5/24, 6/14, 6/29, 8/2, 8/20, 9/1; (Postseason) 9/7, 9/13, 9/14
Eyewitness Stats (9 games): 11/38 (.289), 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 R, 2 BB, 5 K
What the Numbers Say
Regular Season (88 G): 336 PA, .260/.304/.495, 81 H, 17 2B, 3B, 18 HR, 46 RBI, 44 R, 1/2 SB, 6% BB (20 BB), 22.3% K (75 K), HBP, 7 GIDP, 124 wRC+, .351 wOBA
Playoffs (6 G): 5/22, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K, HBP (.227/.320/.636)
Fielding (as C): 81 G (81 GS), 695.1 innings, 827 chances, 723 putouts, 100 assists, four errors, .995 Fielding %, six double plays, 18 passed balls, 39/93 CS (41.9%)
Rodolfo Duran’s season can simply be described as powerful. In Williamsport last season, Duran hit an solid .252, but he didn’t reach base much (4.7% BB) and recorded just 12 extra base hits in 171 plate appearances. None of those extra base knocks were home runs. This season Duran found his power stroke big time posting 21 home runs between 94 games between the regular season and playoffs. Duran’s season can essentially be broken down into four different streaks:
4/5-5/25: 101 PA, .155/.170/.258, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 5 R, 2 BB (1.98%), 23 K (22.8%)
5/26-6/30: 95 PA, .381/.453/.821, 9 HR (18 XBH), 19 RBI, 16 R, 11 BB (11.6%), 16 K (16.8%)
7/1-8/5: 55 PA, .118/.161/.216, HR, 3 RBI, 5 R, 3 BB (5.5%), 19 K (34.5%)
8/7-9/14 (playoffs included): 110 PA, .327/.373/.624, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 22 R, 6 BB (5.5%), 22 K (20%)
Duran ended up finishing tied for sixth in the South Atlantic League in home runs (18). He would end up finishing just under the South Atlantic league average in strikeouts (22.3% vs 23.3% league), but below average in walks (6% vs 7.3% league). Of the nine players who hit 18+ home runs in the SAL in 2018, only Asheville’s Chad Spanberger (Rockies) struck out at a lower clip than Duran (21.6%). The next closest struck out about 3% more than Duran.
Duran’s home/road splits weren’t dramatic from a power perspective, but more so from an a hitting standpoint. He would hit .292/.331/.535 with 10 home runs in 155 PA at FirstEnergy Park. It’s not an easy park to hit home runs in with the wind normally blowing in and the slightly high walls. On the road, he hit just .234/.282/.461 with 8 home runs in 181 PA on the road. In the postseason, all three of his home runs would be hit in the Lakewood’s three road games.
Duran really struggled against left-handed pitching after posting modest numbers last year. In 61 PA vs southpaws in 2017, he hit .276 with a .708 OPS and 3/16 BB/K. In 106 PA vs lefties this season, he hit a paltry .173 with a .472 OPS and 6/26 BB/K. The thing that made this interesting was that Duran didn’t really pull the ball with the same veracity as he did with right-handers as the spray charts below show (1st vs LHP/2nd vs RHP).
Duran’s batted ball numbers didn’t really much differ from last year. His line drive rate increased from 20% to 22.5% taking mainly from his fly ball numbers as they dropped from 40% to 37.3%. His ground ball rate remained around 40%. As you can see below, most of Duran batted balls, especially his hits, came to pull side (53.8%). He would just have three of his 36 extra base hits go from right center to the rightfield line.
From May 25th to the end of the season a lot things really improved. One thing Duran improved on from his early season struggles was his two strike approach. After hitting just .093/.111/.163 in his first 45 scenarios, he would hit .204/262/.319 (122 PA resulting in two-strikes). His scorching hot stretch from 5/25-6/30 was his peak when he hit .278/.350/.556 in two strike counts.
Duran rarely got to two or three ball counts as it only accounted for 13.1% of his trips to the plate this year. But when he did, it was likely a strong result as he hit .394/.523/.758 in 44 two ball counts or better during the season. He actually hit better when the count was at least 2-1 (.417/.533/.917). The only neutralization in these scenarios this year would be the 15 times he faced lefties, where he only amassed three singles and reached base six times.
With runners in scoring position and two outs, Duran hit a modest .265/.342/.382 with two extra base hits (one home run) in 38 plate appearances. With less than two outs (40 PA), he hit .333/.325/.528, yet he only had three extra base hits (two home runs).
Tale of the Tape
It’s easy to just look at the numbers, but the surge in power is can be explained a bit through some simple changes. One noticeable difference from last year to this year is the leg kick. Last season, he was slightly inconsistent. It was either a slight lift and quickly planting his left foot down a bit early or a quick double toe tap. Now he has added a moderate leg lift that has allowed him to create more of well-balanced load. Last year he really tried to use his upper half more, where as this season everything was more in sync.
Duran’s body is pretty well built, with a thick lower half and strong forearms. His swing is quick, compact and built for hammering balls to his pull side. He doesn’t really hit balls much to right field and most of the time his opposite field contact were weak grounders to the right side of the infield. There are still a number of times where Duran is completely off balanced swinging at anything offspeed on the outer third of the plate. And while he doesn’t swing and miss at a high rate at those pitches currently, that is certainly something to watch to see how he progresses moving forward. Duran’s speed can be characterized as below average but he showed some good hustle on some slow grounders and taking the extra base.
From a defensive standpoint, Duran shows solid ability to be an above average catcher. He shows good athleticism, moving side to side fairly well and is able to keep those tough spikes in the dirt in front of him by dropping down on both knees. He does let a number of balls by him, as evidenced by the 18 passed balls he allowed this season, but a couple of those that I witnessed called that way could have gone either way. Duran shows a 55-60 grade arm and his pop times to 2B have been in the 1.88 to 1.96 second range. As a comparison, the MLB average pop time is 2.01. JT Realmuto has the top average (min. 10 throws to 2B) at 1.90. This is helped further by good exchanges (timed around .63 to .76 seconds) from the glove to the release.
What Lies Ahead
There is probably no bigger rise in the system than that of the diminutive Rodolfo Duran. Duran wasn’t on the Phillies Minor Thoughts top 50 entering the season but was on the peripheral just based on his strong defense and fringe average contact numbers. In an instant, Duran has likely powered his way (literally) into likely a top 20 prospect in the Phillies system and potentially the organization’s top minor league catching prospect with Rafael Marchan as his main competition. Duran probably isn’t a consistent 20-25 home run hitter in the major leagues, but 15-18 home runs will fit more in his range if the power maintains with a couple of 20+ seasons. Eventually that average strikeout rate will increase over time and he’ll need to get in to more hitter’s counts if he’s going to be at least an average hitter. Right now he is just a bit below where I would give him a 40-45 future grade Defensively, he’s shows the tools to at least to be a quality defensive backup backstop, if the offensive tools are just enough to get him a major league job. There are probably going to be questions about Duran’s durability because of his size (missed about two weeks in July with a lower body issue), but that isn’t a big concern to this point.
He will begin next season in Clearwater in what will be his final year before he’ll have to be a part of the 40 man roster decision next offseason when he becomes Rule 5 eligible. If Duran continues to build on his success from 2018, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a part of the catching tandem at some point in 2020, perhaps even becoming the primary catcher.