2018 Eyewitness Evaluation: Cornelius Randolph

Cornelius Randolph, OF

5’11, 205 lb

Born 6/2/97 (Age 21) in Brunswick, GA

Bats/Throws: L/R

Drafted in the 1st Round (10th overall) of the 2015 MLB draft out of Griffin HS (GA)

Team Played For: Reading (Eastern League/AA)

Eyewitness Stats (7 G, 5 GS): 4/21 , 2 2B, 2 RBI, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 HBP

What the Numbers Say

Regular Season (118 G): 465 PA, .241/.324/.322, .298 BABIP, 99 H, 18 2B, 5 HR, 40 RBI, 52 R, 3/6 SB, 10.3% BB (48 BB), 19.8% K (92 K), 3 HBP, 12 GIDP, 85 wRC+, .302 wOBA

Fielding (as LF): 103 G (99 GS), 852.1 innings played, 167 chances, 155 putouts, eight outfield assists, four errors, .976 Fld%, one double play

Randolph’s season is literally a tale of two halves. As horrendous as his first half was, that was also how impressive his second half of the season was:

Through 6/30 (69 games): 267 PA, .187/.274/.238, 9 2B, HR, 16 RBI, 25 R, 10.5% BB, 24% K, .250 BABIP, 11 multi-hit games

From 7/1 to season’s end (49 games): 198 PA, .314/.391/.434, 9 2B, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 27 R, 10.1% BB, 14.1% K, .357 BABIP, 17 multi-hit games

A couple of things stand out here between the two halves. The first being that his strikeout rate dramatically decreased by about 10% and he ended up finishing below the under the league average (21.3%). And even during his struggles, he maintained a consistent above-average walk rate (league average at 9%). He ended up not just getting more multi-hit games compared to the first half, but his rate of hitless appearances was slashed dramatically (50.7% vs 28.6%).

Like a number of his Reading teammates, Randolph’s home numbers (.272, .750 OPS) were certainly better than his road numbers (.212, .545 OPS). He ended up collecting 19 of his 24 extra base hits at FirstEnergy Stadium. But he didn’t use the park to it’s full advantage when it came to the home run numbers. After hitting 13 last season, he would only hit just five in 2018 (four at home).

Randolph actually hit better against southpaws this year than he did against right-handers. In 112 plate appearances vs lefties, he put up a slash line of .258/.345/.392 with a 9.8% BB and 18.8% K, (.236, .618 OPS, 10.5% BB, 20.1% K vs RHP). In fact those slash lines were actually were essentially reversed the previous year, with a higher slugging vs RHP. Now in the second half of the 2018 season he hit .326 with a .978 OPS vs lefties (51 PA). Versus righties, after hitting just .182 with a .504 OPS in the first half, he would bounce back but wouldn’t slug much (.311/.381/.394).

Randolph’s spray chart is really a good looking one if you like a player that sprays the ball everywhere. Last year, he ended up pulling the ball on 33.9% of the balls he put in play meaning a large majority was spent going to leftfield and centerfield (66.1%). This season he pulled the ball at a 43.2% clip but 31.3% of the balls he put in play went to leftfield. Pulling the ball and going up the middle at a greater rate was a big key to his success in the final couple of months as shown below.

Randolph’s flyball percentage would drop from the previous year by over 10% (40.7% to 30.1%), but over half of that would be distributed to hitting more line drives (15.4% to 21.7%). Randolph’s fly ball numbers in the first half left little to be desired as he only hit a measly .144 with a .227 slugging percentage. He would end up having more success in the second half when he hit .250 with a .719 slugging percentage. This is still a big drop overall from last season when he hit .333 with a .821 slugging percentage on fly balls. And remember, he played in what is supposed to be a hitter friendly park for half of his games.

His batting average on groundballs showed a 75 point difference between the two halves (.172 vs .247), but he probably hit the ball on the ground a bit too much finishing with the 16th highest groundball rate (48.2%) out of 91 players in the Eastern League to make 300 plate appearances.

With runners in scoring position, Randolph’s numbers actually get better when the situation there’s a bit more pressure. In 56 plate appearances with less than two outs throughout the year, he would hit just .143/.200/.184. When there were two outs he hit .405/.519/.571 in 52 plate appearances and was significantly boosted by a .688/.737/1.000 in the final two months when the scenario presented itself. That line is a far outcry from last year when he only hit .190/.329/.276 in 70 PA with RISP and two out.

 

Tale of the Tape

One of the big things Randolph lacked compared to last season was some semblance of power. Perhaps part of this is inconsistencies with timing. Randolph varies from either a quick toe tap or the just a slightly high leg lift. This looks more like the high school and Arizona Fall League versions compared to some of the video from 2016 instructs and early 2017 as seen below (courtesy of BaseballBetsy). In this video, he had more of a pronounced leg kick. But somewhere along the way though he reverted back (hit .188, .607 OPS in first 148 PA; .276, .765 OPS final 362 PA).

Randolph really chokes up on the bat and starts in a crouch stance.  His swing is compact and he’s able to stay inside the ball fairly well. He’s able to let the ball travel deep and let his bat lag just a bit behind where he can still catch up quickly and hit the ball where it is pitched. This is leads to his consistency to hitting the ball to all fields with power into the gaps. This is limited to balls staying inside the park of course, since he doesn’t generate much power and his swing is geared more towards line drives than high arcing fly balls. The angle

Randolph may have been a middle infielder in high school, but he lacked the athleticism to remain up the middle. His body type is  athletic looking, but he’s pretty stocky and his foot speed is below average. That’s essentially why he’s been exclusively a leftfielder his entire career. His arm strength is average and that’s probably the best thing about his defense in general. His play at the position can be described as adequate.  His range is limited as he he’s slow getting to balls in the corners and gaps.

What Lies Ahead

Johnny Almarez made Cornelius Randolph his first ever draft pick as the director of the Phillies amateur scouting department in 2015. The Phillies were put in strange position at the #10 slot. Drafted before Randolph were the likes of current MLB regulars Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi and Ian Happ and a couple of high profile prospects in Kyle Tucker and Brendan Rodgers. It was also a draft where the better pitching prospects were from college but projected to be relievers.  And then really the only two guys I could’ve argued to take at 10 both had injuries entering the draft (Kolby Allard and Walker Buehler). So when push came to shove, Almaraz took a risk on a high school player with an advanced approach at the plate that projected well.  Fast forward three plus seasons later and Randolph hasn’t made the type of progress the Phillies would hope for. While his walk percentage is well above average, he had issues making consistent hard contact throughout an entire season instead of just half as has been shown over the last couple of years. I think part of Randolph’s problem these last couple of years is figuring out what type of hitter he wants to be. His success the last two years both came in the second half of the season when he started to pull the ball more. But he’s also at his best when he’s hitting more line drives than trying to create the launch angle to generate more fly balls like he did this year. So somewhere in there is a good meeting point of where Randolph can have an impact in the future.

Randolph is now past the point of what I call the “college years” stage of the professional baseball, where a kid gets drafted out of high school and he gets the equivalent of three years of college to show he can still potentially make his draft projections. At that time, scouts and experts believed Randolph could develop an above average hit and power tool (55 grades) and make an impact at the top of somebody’s lineup even without a defensive home. Now it is more likely he might more suited in a role off the bench as a fourth outfielder with little power but above average on-base skills. And with the below average defense and lack of even average speed, Randolph might have a tough time sticking around in the majors in that role as well.

It will be a crowded outfield potentially in the upper levels in 2019, so with his second half stretch and the longest tenured first round pick status, it’s likely safe to say that Lehigh Valley will be where he starts next season. If Randolph wants to have a big league future, the power is going to have to show up vs AAA pitching. Otherwise he’s might be career minor leaguer.