2017 Top 50 By the Numbers

One of my favorite parts of doing a Top 50 prospect list is the exercise of statistically breaking down the list. I think it provides a larger snapshot of trends in the system. Because of things like risk, the Top 50 itself slants older and higher level. It also favors starting pitchers to relief pitchers. Because of this, it is less a tool for saying what the entire org composition is made up of and more one aimed at yearly trending. I did this activity last year and that is the data that will presented in parentheses when applicable.

Position:

C – 3 (5)
1B – 1 (3)
2B – 3 (4)
SS – 6 (4)
3B – 0 (2)
OF -12 (12)
RHP – 19 (16)
LHP – 6 (4)

Major League ETA:

2015 – 0 (2)
2016 – 3 (14)
2017 – 12 (11)
2018 – 6 (10)
2019 – 13 (4)
2020 – 10 (7)
2021 – 3 (2)
2022 – 3 (0)

How Player Was Acquired:

Draft – 19 (17)
International Amatuer – 21 (14)
Trade – 10 (17)
Rule 5 – 0 (1)
MiLB FA – 0 (1)

End of Year Level:

MLB – 3 (2)
AAA – 7 (3)
AA – 9 (14)
A+ – 4 (10)
A- – 9 (6)
SS – 6 (5)
Rookie – 10 (9)
DNP  – 2 (1)

Country of Origin:

USA – 23 (27)
Dominican Republic – 15 (12)
Venezuela – 7 (6)
Canada – 1 (1)
Mexico – 1 (1)
Colombia – 1 (1)
Puerto Rico – 1 (2)
Aruba – 1 (0)

Age on Opening Day:

25 – 4 (2)
24 – 2 (6)
23 – 9 (6)
22 – 11 (10)
21 – 6 (12)
20 – 4 (6)
19 – 6 (2)
18 – 3 (5)
17 – 3 (1)

What we see is a system that is becoming less dependent on trade to subsist. This has all come with a surge in Latin American prospects with the first real wave of post-Tocci signings hitting their early 20s and growing into legitimate prospects. There also was a bit of stalling caused by some struggles at the top of the list. Despite the Phillies graduating a bunch of pitchers to the majors in 2016, the system has continued to see pitching growth. To see more of this I am going to shift into two variable breakdowns. I didn’t go back and run the 2016 data, so just new data here. This is just the raw data, more analysis to come in the next few weeks.

MLB ETA With Positional Breakdown:

2016:

  • 1 Catcher
  • 1 Outfielders
  • 1 Relief Pitcher

2017:

  • 1 Catcher
  • 1 First Baseman
  • 1 Second Baseman
  • 1 Shortstop
  • 3 Outfielders
  • 4 Starting Pitchers
  • 1 Relief Pitcher

2018:

  • 1 Second baseman
  • 1 Outfielder
  • 3 Starting Pitchers
  • 1 Relief Pitcher

2019:

  • 1 Catcher
  • 1 Shortstop
  • 3 Outfielders
  • 7 Starting Pitchers
  • 1 Relief Pitcher

2020:

  • 1 Second Baseman
  • 2 Shortstops
  • 3 Outfielders
  • 4 Starting Pitchers

2021:

  • 1 Outfielder
  • 2 Starting Pitchers

2022:

  • 2 Shortstops
  • 1 Starting Pitcher

Position By Method Of Acquisition:

Catcher

  • 1 Trade
  • 1 Draft
  • 1 International FA

First Base

  • 1 Draft

Second Base

  • 1 Draft
  • 1 International FA

Shortstop

  • 2 Draft
  • 4 International FA

Third Base

Outfield

  • 6 Draft
  • 1 Trade
  • 5 International FA

Starting Pitcher

  • 9 International FA
  • 7 Draft
  • 5 Trade

Relief Pitcher

  • 2 Trade
  • 1 Draft
  • 1 International FA

Position by Country of Origin

(More fun so only Top 5)

  • 10 US SPs
  • 7 Dominican SPs
  • 7 US Outfielders
  • 3 Venezuelan SPs
  • 3 Dominican Outfielders

Photo by Baseball Betsy

Author: Matt Winkelman

Matt Winkelman
Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has appeared on Phuture Phillies, The Good Phight, and TheDynastyGuru.

1 comment

  1. Eddie

    Two interesting comparisons would be

    1) where last year’s top 50 went — graduated/traded/etc, and

    2) How the ETAs changed. That is, how many guys once projected for 2017 are still on track, how many stalled, etc.